Cheltenham 2019 Ante Post Thread

Presenting Percy is said to be 50-50 to run at Fairyhouse on Saturday in the Bobbyjo.

I would say it is unlikely we will see him because the going is currently said to be good with good-soft in places. The owner said he had been promised rain before the weekend but the 7 day forecast gave today as the day most likely to have rain and mainly dry for the remainder.

It's looking more like Presenting Percy could go straight to the Gold Cup and if the ground is not what they have been waiting for all season with the horse then surely he's a massive drifter on the day.

I could not call myself a bookie with any conviction if I couldn't offer 5/1 on Presenting Percy for the Gold Cup. C'mon Bookies, Grow A Pair

 

Really not the stayers?? So if he does run does that mean Apples will go to the mares?

 

Laurina 4/1 for the mares

I think shes a certainty to run in this and start odds on, she wont be winning the Champion and with Mullins weaker than usual team, he will throw her and Benie De Dieux at the mares, the latter hasnt run since last year and wouldnt be a major surprise to hear that she misses Cheltenham altogether despite reports of her well being, we know what this yard is all about.

 

Laurina runs today but we will learn little at odds of around 1/3 Fav.

The huge factor for me is whether Laurina has the pace at two miles. Once again, she runs at 2 and a half miles today and her form at the minimum trip is on very testing ground and in lower level company.

If it turns up better ground at Cheltenham and Apples Jade is aimed at the Champion, I reckon there is a good chance they will aim Laurina at the easier race.

It would seem madness to run Apples Jade here because she is unlikely to ever get a better chance to win the Champion Hurdle than this year. That leaves only two options for the Mares race. Either back Benie Des Dieux at 7/4 NRNB and hope that the big two BOTH go to the Champion, or back Laurina at 4/1 and take the chance that she might not run. If taking NRNB on Laurina you are only getting 5/4 and that would seem very tight given that a lesser showing today would see her chances of running in the Mares increased, yet ionically cast some doubt on her ability to put Benie Des Dieux to the sword.

4/1 with Will.I.am Hill could be big price if you can deal with the possibility that Laurina may not give you a run for your investment.

 

Presenting Percy is 5/2 for the Bobbyjo Chase on Saturday. The ground is currently Good though and it seems unlikely we will see him.

Alpha Des Obeaux is narrowly shortest of the others prominent in the betting, with Rathvinden and Magic Of Light the other two close up in the market where it is 10/1 Bar the quartet.

Alpha Des Obeaux is probably the one to beat based on a good second in the Thyestes, where he was well clear of the third. He's not a through and through three mile chaser though, having been tried at shorter quite a few times. You wouldn't fancy him on some of his earlier efforts this season, hence his 20/1 odds in the Thyestes.

Rathvinden has not been out this season and he's getting on a bit now at 11YO. At the odds he seems a bit skinny to me.

Magic Of Light is a Mare who has been running well but she has been mixing hurdling and chasing and largely keeping to Mares only races. I don't see much appeal at 7/2.

Of the others, Monbeg Notorious has run two stinkers this season, looking a shadow of the horse who hacked up in the Thyestes last season. Outlander stank last time and is described as very inconsistent by his trainer. Valseur Lido looks gone at the game along with Don Poli, while Mala Beach was awful behind Presenting Percy over hurdles last time.

With Presenting Percy likely to duck the event, I reckon Alpha Des Obeaux wins it with a repeat of his Thyestes effort.

Alpha Des Obeaux 5/2 for me anyway.

 

heres the last 15 years cheltenham festival form in .csv format

https://mega.nz/#!mzQm3KTK!Pal23zz8diKCS-3wf4k-ynd6A_7zVp2i51HE5g9mGuk

 

Suddenly a flurry of news on Blaklion having been nothing all season. Yates says of his recent purchase:

"He's a fantastic horse to get hold of," said the Lytham St Annes-based owner, who revealed he had had his eyes on the ten-year-old for a while. "I've liked him for a long time. I was chatting to the owners and I was to-ing and fro-ing for a month or so. I watched him run over hurdles at Haydock and I thought 'he looks as though he's going to run a blinder in the National', so I tried one more time.

"I had to give £300,000 for him, which is enough for a ten-year-old, but I think he has a live chance in the National."

The owner said: "We've entered him in the Pertemps and he's still in the Gold Cup, but I've bought him to run in the National and I'd be just a little worried about running him anywhere first.

"But if it came up really soft in the Gold Cup, Phil and I would have to have a chat. Currently 100/1 for the Gold cup by the way....33/1 for the Pertemps

 

I really wish connections would steer Janika to the Ryanair as I think he would have a corking chance in this at a huge price. Have been so, so, so impressed by this one since he arrived at Seven Barrows from France. Apparently though the owners don’t wish to do this as THEY believe Janika is, at best, only their 3rd (possibly even 4th) string from their battalion of horses for this contest.

It appears as a result Janika will be ‘Plate’ bound and there is very good money for The Lieutenant’s charge for that race this morn.

 

Anyone selling 2 club enclosure tickets for the Tuesday 12 March champions day?????

 

From Racing Post:

Arkle favourite Le Richebourg will miss the Cheltenham Festival and the rest of the season.

 

From ATR:

Fusil Raffles will miss the JCB Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival due to the cut he sustained when winning at Kempton on Saturday.

 

Please no!!!

 

Yes. I had a bet Cilaos Emery 20/1 and before that Draconien 20/1. I know how you feel.

 

Hitler reacts to the lead up to this years Cheltenham Festival

https://twitter.com/TracksideJay

 

The 2 at the head of the market in the CGC may be about to ‘flip flop’, team. It could, in fact, happen very imminently (already now joint faves in a few books). Good money for Clan Des Obeaux whilst old boy Percy is on the drift.

 

He’s big odds though to be ‘Champ Trainer’ at the Festival – 20/1. There are actually 4 in front of the old boy in the market – The Lieutenant, Gord Elliott, young Joseph and some chap that I’ve never heard of.

Got to say though that Mr Nicholls seems full of bullish, right now, re some of his Cheltenham charges – Clan Des Obeaux, Give Me A Copper and Quel Destin especially.