Cheltenham 2019 Ante Post Thread

[floridaspearl]

Also given you can get 7s antepost for the Betfair and 33s for GC

if you think he wins the Betfair a tenner on it to win that returns £80

so unless you think he’s going to get shorter than 5/1 for the GC post race, then the better bet would be back for Betfair then roll onto the GC.

I don’t see how he could go that short given that Al Boum Photo is 8s, Kemboy 13/2 and Lostintranslation a hyped 8s antepost currently.

Small nibbles on gold cup if he wins the bet fair bank half bet half.

 

[CaptainPops]

Frodon will have to get past Mr Haydock specialist Bristol de Mai mind...he has pretty much destroyed the field in the last two years. Likely to come up very soft too..track plays to his strengths. I am not sure Frodon will be good enough..

Overall 4 visits to Haydock Park and 4 wins...

 

[Ron]

Lazy buggers. I've changed the heading. Might get a few more showing interest

 

[Ron]

Changed it back as we now have a 2020 thread. There isn't much on the 2019 thread relating to 2020 so you can just repeat your post(s) if you want it/them on the new thread

 

[Grendel]

It doesn't seem worthwhile going E/W on Frodon. If he doesn't turn up you are doubling your loss. Far better to split the stake as win/win Betfair and Gold Cup. Even if Frodon does run in the Gold Cup it seems unlikely to me that, if he doesn't win it, he would be likely to place. The distance of the Gold Cup has always been one of the biggest negatives and if he is going to be beaten I suspect it will be pretty comprehensively on the day.

Frodon was actually the highlight of my Cheltenham last season, when I took an early view that he would not run in the Gold Cup and backed him for the Ryanair at 16/1. 9/2 on the day, he was game in winning it and it seems a bit odd that he is as big as 14/1 to win it again. I don't think the Betfair is the right race for Frodon. Bristol De Mai pretty much owns the race and will likely set out to run his opponents into the ground from the start. That will make life tough for Frodon and Altior and I doubt the Betfair is the right race for the 2 mile champ either, I feel it would be suicidal running Altior if the ground is at all testing.

For me the Betfair rests between Bristol De Mai and Lostintranslation. Lostintranslation needs more and at 2/1 he isn't making nuch appeal when the "Been threre, done it, bought the T-Shirt" horse is only quarter of a point shorter in the betting. The Tizzard horse is very unexposed at the 3 miles plus trip though. He seemed ready for a step up in distance when losing out to Defi Du Seuil twice and duly obliged when upstetting Topofthegame in the Mildmay. Lostintranslation seemed near his best in his return to action this season and given that it was back in distance to 20F and probably short of what is likely to be his best distance this season. Lostintranslation looks a raw sort who still has some filling out to do and he has scope but he will be facing a horse in Bristol De Mai who seems to be a different animal at Haydock than anywhere else and he can sustain a strong pace that wears opponents down, most noticeably when crushing Cue Card in a devastating show of how to grind other horses into submission.

I would be loathe to oppose Bristol De Mai in the Betfair on soft ground and foresee problems for some of the entries.

If Frodon were my horse I would skip the Betfair unless it cuts up quite badly and the ground is decent. 14/1 for the Ryanair appeals to me as the best bet ante-post for the prolific winner.

 

[floridaspearl]

It doesn't seem worthwhile going E/W on Frodon. If he doesn't turn up you are doubling your loss. Far better to split the stake as win/win Betfair and Gold Cup. Even if Frodon does run in the Gold Cup it seems unlikely to me that, if he doesn't win it, he would be likely to place. The distance of the Gold Cup has always been one of the biggest negatives and if he is going to be beaten I suspect it will be pretty comprehensively on the day.

Frodon was actually the highlight of my Cheltenham last season, when I took an early view that he would not run in the Gold Cup and backed him for the Ryanair at 16/1. 9/2 on the day, he was game in winning it and it seems a bit odd that he is as big as 14/1 to win it again. I don't think the Betfair is the right race for Frodon. Bristol De Mai pretty much owns the race and will likely set out to run his opponents into the ground from the start. That will make life tough for Frodon and Altior and I doubt the Betfair is the right race for the 2 mile champ either, I feel it would be suicidal running Altior if the ground is at all testing.

For me the Betfair rests between Bristol De Mai and Lostintranslation. Lostintranslation needs more and at 2/1 he isn't making nuch appeal when the "Been threre, done it, bought the T-Shirt" horse is only quarter of a point shorter in the betting. The Tizzard horse is very unexposed at the 3 miles plus trip though. He seemed ready for a step up in distance when losing out to Defi Du Seuil twice and duly obliged when upstetting Topofthegame in the Mildmay. Lostintranslation seemed near his best in his return to action this season and given that it was back in distance to 20F and probably short of what is likely to be his best distance this season. Lostintranslation looks a raw sort who still has some filling out to do and he has scope but he will be facing a horse in Bristol De Mai who seems to be a different animal at Haydock than anywhere else and he can sustain a strong pace that wears opponents down, most noticeably when crushing Cue Card in a devastating show of how to grind other horses into submission.

I would be loathe to oppose Bristol De Mai in the Betfair on soft ground and foresee problems for some of the entries.

If Frodon were my horse I would skip the Betfair unless it cuts up quite badly and the ground is decent. 14/1 for the Ryanair appeals to me as the best bet ante-post for the prolific winner.

If I was the owner of Frodon I would be asking the question will he get 3 1/4 miles ? Paul Nichols would not be running him in the betfair if he didn’t think he will stay simple as that. If he wins the betfair you go king George, gold cup. If he gets trounced in the betfair the question has been answered you go Ryanair.
Horses like Frodon don’t come around very often he s a special little horse.. I’ve come across horses like him before. They have a confident, giving attitude who will not be passed. Frodon main strength is his pace, it’s relentless even dour stayers can’t take the pace and if anything gets near he digs in and gives more.
It helps that he’s got a great partner in Bryony frost they are a great duo and it’s a sight to behold seeing them come up the hill.

 

[OddDog]

Horses for courses in my opinion. Frodon excels at Cheltenham but Haydock is a very different test, especially against Bristol de Mai.

 

[Ron]

If I was the owner of Frodon I would be asking the question will he get 3 1/4 miles ? Paul Nichols would not be running him in the betfair if he didn’t think he will stay simple as that. If he wins the betfair you go king George, gold cup. If he gets trounced in the betfair the question has been answered you go Ryanair.
Horses like Frodon don’t come around very often he s a special little horse.. I’ve come across horses like him before. They have a confident, giving attitude who will not be passed. Frodon main strength is his pace, it’s relentless even dour stayers can’t take the pace and if anything gets near he digs in and gives more.
It helps that he’s got a great partner in Bryony frost they are a great duo and it’s a sight to behold seeing them come up the hill.

That sounds like a description of one of my old favourites, Mandarin

 

[CaptainPops]

Last year in the betfair the going was surprisingly good and Bristol de Mai won by 4 lengths from Native River. The year before when it was heavy the winning margin was 57 lengths. That's pretty incredible when you think about it. Signs are there is more rain around than at this time last year so l ll go with a prediction of soft at best. I can not see Bristol De Mai being beaten in this..we forget he will only be 9 at the turn of the year so may well strengthen and improve a little.

Altior won't turn up as he 'll be off to Ascot to take on Cyrname.

 

[Benvenuto Cellini]

Grendel before he found out I liked Buveur Dair

Fair changed his tune, ran out to back him for 2019, now when he tells the story he was very worried after Buveur Dair only won the champion hurdle by a head.

I backed Buveur D'air for the 2018 Champion Hurdle when he was 5/1 and although he was not too impressive in landing it, I went out straight after the race to back him for the 2019 renewal. I feel the division has been weak for several years since Faugheen was in his pomp and the Henderson horse looked capable of putting in a hat trick when I saw him land his first title.

Assuming all is well with Buveur D'air I think he will make history in March without much fuss. He is 10 out of 11 over Hurdles and the only two to best him were Altior and Min in what was a good looking Supreme Novices in 2016. While it's true that he has faced many simple tasks because he has not really been taken on by the best around until the Festival, he still churns the wins out and is one of the few you would back to put in a 170 or slightly better run come the Festival. There is also the possibilty that he may be odds-on come March if the main rivals do not deliver as the hype is suggesting they wiil.