Cheltenham 2018: Antepost Thread

Some interesting reading there DQ.

FAUGHEEN - I'm of the opposite opinion in that I feel the 2m Hurdle scene is at its weakest since the days of Katchit, that's why I have placed my faith in Defi Du Seuil, Apple's Jade (in the hope that connections take the risk) and to a smaller extent Faugheen. If he returns just 80% of what he was then he will take some stopping.

MELON - inclined to agree but really could go either way depending on how Faugheen performs in the Morgiana.

DJACKADAM - agree that he should go RyanAir but really think connections will take another shot at the GC.

DOUVAN - now this one I can see going RyanAir but that will depend if he enters the King George. If he were to run and win then GC no doubt.

MIN - Agree 100% and Altior will need to be at his very best to beat him. The 12/1 on offer is huge imo.

GREAT FIELD - Not a bad back up to Min!!

UN DE SCEAUX - Will surely defend the RyanAir?

YORKHILL - Lot of 'ifs and buts' as he's so talented he would have a huge chance any race whether it be Champ Hurdle/Chase, RyanAir or GC. Nutcase though!!

 

I've completely convinced myself of the Djakadam Ryanair/Douvan Gold Cup targets. Ricci will want an interest in each and if Douvan runs in and shines in any races at 3 miles plus before Cheltenham then i'd say that will be the way it plays out. It gives him the best chance of winning two races with those two horses. Djakadam's form over 19f - 21f is 4 wins out of 5 attempts (the other one being a fall when close up in the JLT), and there's no way Djakadam can win this Gold Cup. The only way I see those targets switching is if Douvan doesn't last out when upped in trip. Douvan would then probably take in the Ryanair/Champion Chase and Djakadam the Gold Cup.

 

Yorkill for the champion hurdle I reckon

 

A lot depends on the influence of owner vs yard. The yard will have to have 2 of their top horses in one or two of the championship races just because there is no way of avoiding it. So you would think that the owners then may have more say. I think the Champion Hurdle is the best race for Yorkhill this year, but the rumours are that Wylie is obsessed about winning the Gold Cup. Wouldn't be surprised to see Ricci and Wylie try and get both of their stars into the Gold Cup, and would be shocked if UDS, Djakadam, Douvan and Yorkhill all take in different races this time around, don't see how it's even possible. Douvan in the Champion Chase would put Min where?

 

Unfortunately my main pick for Cheltenham is no longer with us so I haven't looked much at what else is available. If it's anything like last year we won't have a clue who runs in what, making ante post a bit of a lottery

 

Got to assume last year was a bit of a freak one for the yard with injuries.

I'd love to see Douvan up against Altior but just can't see it happening. The yard have Min and Great Field who seem natural fits for the race, and there is already a fair bit of yard confidence behind Min.

In trying to work backwards from Cheltenham and second guess, Ricci will surely have a runner in the Gold Cup. It looks like this year's is going to be stronger than the last couple, so I just can't see them giving Djakadam another shot as even a place would likely be beyond him in that field. Ricci's best chance of winning the 2018 Gold Cup lies with Douvan, even if he goes to post having never tackled 3 miles plus before. You would have thought that he'll want to go with his best chance of winning the biggest race of them all, and move the rest of his horses around to accommodate that one

 

That's why I've backed everything Ron

 

48 hour decs for all races at this year's festival. Seems an entirely positive move, can really get your teeth into all of Tuesdays and Wednesdays runners on the Sunday and Monday now, overthink them all, and hover your pen over the winner numerous times

 

Ron, Oddy - is there a way I can upload my Cheltenham portfolio spreadsheet from apple 'Numbers'? Or do I need attempt it from a desktop?

Think it's time for people to start debating whether I'm a genius or a mug

 

Don't know Drever. Try clicking on "Upload a File" and see if it allows you to locate your file via the browse

 

Cheers Ron but that only allows photos - will figure it out soon.

 

If you have a screen grabber you could just copy the image. If not export it into Windows and use the Snipping Tool to copy it. PM me if you have any problems. If you want you can email it to me and I'll find a way of getting it up (so to speak).

 

Thanks Ron!!

About to jet off to Corfu for a week so I will mess around with it when I get back

 

I thought Nathan put up a solid if unspectacular performance at Chester on Friday (beaten 0.75 lengths into 3rd) and that probably sums up what he is on the level (an early 90’s level animal) unless going onto show improvement with age.

As he ran up to his rating rather than take his form to a higher level this could push connections into pursuing a NH career with the horse this Winter. I think he remains fascinating and would love to see the old boy over timber.

Is even more interesting as he’s still a full horse and I wonder if his owners, the Normandie Stud, have in the back of their minds to win one of the major end of term Grade 1’s with him (at Aintree, Punchestown or preferably the Triumph Hurdle) before turning him into a NH sire. This is total guesswork on my behalf (to use that terrible forum cliché, in no way an, ‘I’ve been told…’) and for all I know Nathan could be gelded next week. But I know this approach has been attempted before – as I said, before he ever ran, it was the aim with Mr Henderson’s Royal Irish Hussar. This one came up short ultimately but he did win a Grade 2 as a 3YO. Subsequently gelded the best form Royal Irish Hussar ever produced was a juvenile. Furthermore, Nathan is nicely bred being by Nathaniel (surprise, surprise) and is a half-brother to a Listed winner.

Whatever happens, at the moment, he remains potentially as decent a prospect as anything that could be going over timber in the juvenile bracket. That above mentioned 33/1 remains available, pilgrims…

 

I'm pretty convinced now that Yorkhill will be going for the Champion Hurdle. I don't see where his race is if they keep him chasing.

Champion Chase they have Douvan, Min and Great Field and I can see two of those lining up in that race - no way would Mullins throw three of his big guns at the one race like that.

Read quotes recently from Wylie stating that they all think Yorkhill's a better hurdler than chaser - with a comment like that I think the Gold Cup seems unlikely at this stage, especially in what looks a hot renewal. So if they keep him chasing the only race I can see for him is the Ryanair. Surely all connections would rather take a punt on the Champion Hurdle than the Ryanair. Buveur and Defi vs Faugheen and Yorkhill a distinct possibility in that race. Not sure where my money would go.

 

Cause of causes was finally cut to 7s by 365. I wonder how much money they took.