Thank you for all the responses yesturday.
I wanted to know where to compare systems against my own system and one main point that I found was when looking at peoples suggestion where to look, it really comes down to so many systems base a selection around the same race type, ie, 3 yo in a maiden, Plumpton race course etc. What I discovered myself was in the first instance risk is key, how to reduce it, how to justify it and so forth. So, and if anyone could help here, a spread of selection types, for example, and properly studied would reveal say a bad distance that failure is higher than others, or if in a handicap, and especially in NH, anything lower than 7 down the card, or if say 7 running, avoid the bottom weight, and if a jockey is claiming more than 5lb, etc, you are taking a risk that should be avoided.
Another example, on turf if backing a handicap over a distance of 1m 4f, unless a group 1 race, very risky, but the opposite if AW. These are the just a very small example of how i have been trying to solve a system. I understand that any basis of selection has to be solid, but its the variables, or weather anolalies that will impact on any selection. For example, by the end of Feb 2013 it became very dry and warm and continued through March. The impact was clear if say following favourites, too firm. April 2012 was the wettest since records begun and again the impact was felt through to the end of May, these are anomalies in my opinion that can deter any backer from continuing say if following a system. They see a losing spell, which usually would be followed by a winning one, the system shows profit but the backer is showing a loss.
For me at least, if say you run several basis of a bet selection, your strike rate should need to be 50% plus, lets say however your getting 40% then the time has come to look deeper into anomalies that keep showing up like distance, goings, weights, the handicapper puts a top weight as in his opinion being the best horse, we know that probably is not the case. If a horse winning its last race a few days ago and now gets a penalty, if favourite, then I know now that if the race has a second runner that also won its last race, not a penalty, then the percentage of the favourite winning over doubles. If the penalty carrier is the only horse running that won its last race, they lose over and over. For me its all about pattern and in racing terms how the results happen.
Any views?
I wanted to know where to compare systems against my own system and one main point that I found was when looking at peoples suggestion where to look, it really comes down to so many systems base a selection around the same race type, ie, 3 yo in a maiden, Plumpton race course etc. What I discovered myself was in the first instance risk is key, how to reduce it, how to justify it and so forth. So, and if anyone could help here, a spread of selection types, for example, and properly studied would reveal say a bad distance that failure is higher than others, or if in a handicap, and especially in NH, anything lower than 7 down the card, or if say 7 running, avoid the bottom weight, and if a jockey is claiming more than 5lb, etc, you are taking a risk that should be avoided.
Another example, on turf if backing a handicap over a distance of 1m 4f, unless a group 1 race, very risky, but the opposite if AW. These are the just a very small example of how i have been trying to solve a system. I understand that any basis of selection has to be solid, but its the variables, or weather anolalies that will impact on any selection. For example, by the end of Feb 2013 it became very dry and warm and continued through March. The impact was clear if say following favourites, too firm. April 2012 was the wettest since records begun and again the impact was felt through to the end of May, these are anomalies in my opinion that can deter any backer from continuing say if following a system. They see a losing spell, which usually would be followed by a winning one, the system shows profit but the backer is showing a loss.
For me at least, if say you run several basis of a bet selection, your strike rate should need to be 50% plus, lets say however your getting 40% then the time has come to look deeper into anomalies that keep showing up like distance, goings, weights, the handicapper puts a top weight as in his opinion being the best horse, we know that probably is not the case. If a horse winning its last race a few days ago and now gets a penalty, if favourite, then I know now that if the race has a second runner that also won its last race, not a penalty, then the percentage of the favourite winning over doubles. If the penalty carrier is the only horse running that won its last race, they lose over and over. For me its all about pattern and in racing terms how the results happen.
Any views?
