Can anyone help part 2

Thank you for all the responses yesturday.

I wanted to know where to compare systems against my own system and one main point that I found was when looking at peoples suggestion where to look, it really comes down to so many systems base a selection around the same race type, ie, 3 yo in a maiden, Plumpton race course etc. What I discovered myself was in the first instance risk is key, how to reduce it, how to justify it and so forth. So, and if anyone could help here, a spread of selection types, for example, and properly studied would reveal say a bad distance that failure is higher than others, or if in a handicap, and especially in NH, anything lower than 7 down the card, or if say 7 running, avoid the bottom weight, and if a jockey is claiming more than 5lb, etc, you are taking a risk that should be avoided.

Another example, on turf if backing a handicap over a distance of 1m 4f, unless a group 1 race, very risky, but the opposite if AW. These are the just a very small example of how i have been trying to solve a system. I understand that any basis of selection has to be solid, but its the variables, or weather anolalies that will impact on any selection. For example, by the end of Feb 2013 it became very dry and warm and continued through March. The impact was clear if say following favourites, too firm. April 2012 was the wettest since records begun and again the impact was felt through to the end of May, these are anomalies in my opinion that can deter any backer from continuing say if following a system. They see a losing spell, which usually would be followed by a winning one, the system shows profit but the backer is showing a loss.

For me at least, if say you run several basis of a bet selection, your strike rate should need to be 50% plus, lets say however your getting 40% then the time has come to look deeper into anomalies that keep showing up like distance, goings, weights, the handicapper puts a top weight as in his opinion being the best horse, we know that probably is not the case. If a horse winning its last race a few days ago and now gets a penalty, if favourite, then I know now that if the race has a second runner that also won its last race, not a penalty, then the percentage of the favourite winning over doubles. If the penalty carrier is the only horse running that won its last race, they lose over and over. For me its all about pattern and in racing terms how the results happen.

Any views?

 

As we have said before Mark, all your points may be valid but they apply to past races. We are very welcoming of anyone who wants to try out a system and proof it on this forum by posting the selections before they run and posting the running profit/loss. By all means give it a go. I think you have guessed that we believe a reliable and consistently winning system does not exist.

 

Hi Ron, thanks for that. The only way i could send over my tips would be just moments before the race, before the official off time. It maybe only a minute before. I could do this by email as this is dated and timed both ends. Maybe even on Skpe chat which is instant and again timed. I would be really keen if you could do this and at least that way I have proven a theory or ruled it out!

Over the last 4 years I have averaged just over 400 selections which averaged 55% strike. I only base the winning profit on the SP. Evens to 4/1 only. If you as said could do this then that would be great.

Would you let me know how to send these. Shall I try and post them here to see if that works first?

 

Mark you could easily post something on here on the daily thread regardless of how near to the off. If after a while it was noticeable that your selections had merit you may be able to start your own thread which may be watched with interest. Some people have come on here before however who are clearly on the look out for customers of their system and whilst I am not suggesting this is what you are doing but were you leading into that then I will save you time by saying you would be in the wrong place completely. The people on here are pretty knowledgeable and to sell a get rich quick system you need people of ignorant of the method but greedy or needy enough to part with cash despite logic. I am not meaning to do you down Mark and will take your posts as read but it really is a case of just start posting your selections on the daily thread and people will notice.

 

Good comments Reebs and Blue.

As Reebs says Mark, it would seem you have already proved the system to yourself. The main benefit of posting them on here, pre race, would be so that, if/when you wish to advertise your system you can advertise "proofed" and provide a link to your thread here showing your selections and profit/loss.

I would imagine that, given your lack of interest in horses and the problem of being able to post before the off, this might be a fleeting visit to our forum. If that is the case may I, on behalf of the forum, wish you every success with your system and hope you found our comments useful.

 

Systems? Get rich quick? It doesn't work. No one on here has any need to follow you when they can follow The Champ!

 

What was wrong with your earlier version Bob? Looked OK to me.

 

I liked version 2 more

The points were okay though.

 

I was trying to apply logic to the reasoning of the selection, negatives I found over the last few years that simply mean risk. I had hoped that others may have found risks regarding a race, course etc that they found too risky and perhaps shared .Most talk about what works in their opinion, race type, course etc etc, but no talk about the downside, apart from saying there is no winning system. Thats OK of course. I apologise if some have mis-read what I was asking or trying to discuss, the way I wrote it I think.

I do not run any type of service or selling anything etc, but had hoped that the experience that this forum has would be to see if there was a way of trying to see if in fact a system does work or exists. Im not here to prove anything, no need, but its the fun of racing, its about being passionate about the sport, watching great moments etc.

But if such a system did exist, would that not be fun too?? Please reply gently, I feel like a new pup walking into the lions cage LOL

 

Mark - I wouldn't worry too much about the 'lions cage' mate - there have been a couple of people trying to sell systems on here which has left people a bit irate at future attempts. If that's not your game then you really haven't got anything to worry about - everyone on here is really pretty friendly so long as no-one tries to sell things.

Like Ron said - if you have a plan, slap it on the Daily Thread and see how it goes - don't be scared! Everyone has different approaches to finding winners and it's always interesting to see a new one in action. Some people believe systems approaches have no merit, but then again tunes will change if the winners come in.

I'm more of a part timer to racing personally, which means that I don't really have the time to devote to a systems type approach myself - and also that I don't necessarily have the form knowledge that some of the guys on here do, so I'm not sure I have much to add to your planning personally.

But seriously - stick it on the Daily Thread and have a go! Will be interesting to watch.

 

Thanks for that. Will do.

 

Yesturday i mentioned about penalty carriers and I kept records of following, amongst others, how these performed. As said before there has to be a winner(s) in the race and the penalty carrier needs to be the top rated in the race, I found over 4 years 64% won on that basis, Monday to Friday only and no evening races, but still 4 years. Take away the winner and they are dismal. For example, last two days 3 penalty favourites, 2 without winners 1 with, the 1 with won at 2/1 - yesturday 3.55. In 2011 80% won on that basis, worth following?? I think so.

 

If this system proves that successful then share it with no one. Sit at home backing them until such time as the bookies close your accounts.

 

Does anyone remember samlunch? Was it samlunch, I was trying to rack my brain to remember the guys name.

 

Something doesn't seem to add up Mark. Given the type of system you describe, I don't understand why you can only post a minute before the off. The runners, weights and penalties don't change on the day (except for overweights) and as you say, it's SP based.

Just post your selection(s) on the daily thread or start a new thread with your selection(s) each day and see how it goes.

 

Hi Ron, Perhaps where I differ is I need the market to agree with a possible selection. I work on basis of 9 formulas, each has many components which to try and unravel early doors is impossible, if the market shows up something and the formula fits then theres the selection. For exampe, Prince of Burma would have been a selection yesturday but it had to be favourite and a max of 5/2. Early doors it was clear fav at 9/4 but by the start was 2nd fav and 4/1. Lexi hero was a winner for me but again I would not have been able to know this until the market gave its real indicator.

I only work on this Monday to Friday so will start Monday. I just have to update it as the selections occur.

Not sure if this is allowed but if you give me an email address i will send you what i have formulated and then you will get a grip on how I have been working.

 

Just post on the forum Mark. You could post your pre race contenders and then update depending on the market.