Breaking the "age" myth ..................

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OddDog

OddDog

Mild mannered janitor
Staff member
Jun 2, 2011
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Berlin, Germany
The exploits of certain horses over the last few years, coupled with modern-day equine stars being "wrapped in cotton wool" and showing remarkable longevity, must surely lead us to question ourselves: Are we being ageist whey trying to select the winner of big races?

Let me open with a statement: "Hurricane Fly, aged 10, is a rightful favourite for the Champion Hurdle"

I know Boris is hard-over on this - he is too old to win, 10 year olds don't win the Champion Hurdle (with a couple of notable exceptions). Whilst I greatly respect that poster's views, I wonder whether recent evidence is pointing to a subtle shift in the make-up of the breed, something that the genius known as Willie Mullins, and his peer Paul Nicholls, has learnt to harness - don't run a top-class horse too often, keep them to the best races and keep them happy, and they could well run to their very best well beyond the accepted "peak" of a NH horse in terms of age.

I picked out a few examples to try and demonstrate: Tidal Bay, Kauto Star, Big Buck's and Quevega.

Let's start with good old Tidal Bay. As a novice he was beaten a neck in the Ballymore Properties Novices Hurdle by Massini's Maguire in 2007 before taking the Grade 2 Novices Hurdle at Aintree. He then went novice chasing and won the 2008 Arkle and Maghull Novices Chase before running into Master Minded in the 2008 Tingle Creek. So up in trip he went but to no avail - 6 defeats followed before Ho Jo put him back over hurdles and he duly collected the 2010 Cleeve Hurdle. The imperious Big Buck's then put a line through his advancement as a staying hurdler and it was back over fences for some decent efforts in defeat in the Betfair and Argento Chases. At the end of 2011 he was switched to Paul Nicholls and in April 2012, as an 11YO, he powered through the Sandown mud under Darryl Jacob to run away with the Bet 365 Chase off a mark of 154. He started the 2012/13 season with victory in the Grade 2 West Yorkshire Hurdle before putting up an amazing performance in the Hennessy at Newbury - running future Gold Cup winner Bobs Worth to 3 lengths conceding 6lbs and 4 years in age. If that wasn't breathtaking enough, something purely spectacular was to follow in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown. Looking well beat coming off the final bend, he sprouted wings up the straight and squeezed between Flemenstar and First Lieutentant to get up in the shadow of the post. A truly memorable race and one which proved his Hennessy run was no fluke. He then had a well deserved rest and came back last November, again in the Grade 2 West Yorkshire Hurdle, where he once again sprouted wings up the home straight to collar Alan King's Medinas. He was perhaps asked to go again rather quickly as he disappointed in the Betfair Chase, but after a nice break he ran an absolute blinder in the Welsh National, lumping top weight to a close-up, heroic 3rd place off 163, giving 26lbs to the 2 horses in front of him. Tidal Bay has had 41 career starts.

Kauto Star's heroics need no introduction, he won his 5th King George as a 12 year old and remained at the very pinnacle of his sport for 7 glorious years. He was kept to the top races by Paul Nicholls and, although some would have liked to see him more often, there is no doubt that his relatively light campaigns helped prolong his time at the top. He had 31 career starts.

Big Buck's is now also aged 11 but even after a year off the track, on very testing ground, he almost pulled off victory in the Cleeve and goes to the World Hurdle with a favourites chance. He has also bee sparingly campaigned since switching back to hurdles, typically no more than 4 or 5 races per season. 26 career starts for Big Buck's.

The wonder mare Quevega, as we all know, only runs twice per season, at Cheltenham and Punchestown. A relative youngster at just 10, she has clearly been able to come back year after year at the top level, and has just 14 career starts to her name.

Hurricane Fly has contested 22 races so far in his career, yet some state that because he is 10, he must be in decline.

Now look at some of the greats of yesteryear in terms of career races:

Night Nurse - 64 races
Sea Pigeon - 85 races
Bula - 51 races
Persian War - dunno but ran over 7 seasons so I would gues at least 50 odd races

These great Champion Hurdlers of the past were turned out far more often than modern horses and often in handicaps giving away weight. I think this therefore gives the historical stats a skew, because champion horses simply didn't have the longevity that today's champions have - Hurricane Fly has been superbly looked after and has been trained with only the top races in mind. With only 22 races on the clock there is no reason to think he is in decline and I fully expect him to run to his mark of 175 in March. It will take a very, very good performance to beat him.
 
Hurricane Fly has been on the go since he was 2, Oddy. 4 races as a 2yo, 6 as a 3yo. 24 hurdle races, 34 in all.

Kauto was also on the go from the age of 3, slogging it out in hurdle races in very soft going. 41 races in all, 10 hurdles and 31 chases.
 
Was just looking at UK races Ron, forgot about their French form. Still nowhere near what Sea Pigeon and Night Nurse ran though
 
I'm not necessarily swayed by the age of the horse as you have said, they do still win big races in their later years but i think it is more from the age they start. For instance, if a horse starts as a 2 year old on the flat it is a hell of a long time to be in full training for by the time they are into double figures.

I think its also generally excepted that French bred horses mature, reach their peak and decline earlier than Irish bred. Although obviously there are exceptions to this rule.

BTW surely you have to include runs on the flat if you are going to put a horses lifetime runs as part of your argument?
 
Here's an angle to perhaps go in with and consider:

Is the key with all of them that they don't have as many "hard" races?


If the best ones are so talented, it potentially means they do things a bit easier- it comes more naturally to them and they do it instinctively. Kauto Star was mopping up King Georges in double figure lengths, but his Gold Cup battles were the real tests. Hurricane Fly was winning most Irish races really well, and his real hard races where he has been really asked to pick up have come at Cheltenham. Big Bucks won everything almost on the bridle, except his Cheltenham Festival World Hurdles where he has had to dig deeper.

Hurricane Fly is not at his peak, but he is the one to beat- there is a big difference but importantly he HAS to be considered in the Champion Hurdle. As I have said before- if he wins this Champion Hurdle this year he quite rightly earns himself a title of true Cheltenham great, because this is a potentially serious lineup.
 
I have always wondered why the age of 3 years was selected as the classic age group on the flat as I have often felt that 4 or 5 would most likely be the age at which a horse could reasonably be expected to be at its best on the flat. The sheer fact that a hurdler does not run until age 4 must offer support to the clue that the horse is not fully grown at 3. I wonder how many flat horses would have gone on to improve massively if not retired so early as they just needed a little more time than others.

generally human athletes appear to be at their best around 24-26 with regard many sports, football included.
 
Nice point Bluesky, I think the classics are ridiculously timed in terms of a horses age - the 2000 GNS is far too early in the season and the Derby is just about a level playing field in terms of colts development.
 
I've mentioned it before on here, but it was a while ago .....

I've never been involved in horses - dogs are my area of interest - but I am convinced that, certainly as far as dogs are concerned, there is a finite number of times they can "go to the well". I see no reason why the same wouldn't apply to horses too, albeit the parameters would obviously be different.

There is a tendency amongst the dog racers, when they have a "quick 'un", to run it week after week after week. Now in my sport, once a dog reaches 6 years of age, it qualifies to run in Veteran only races, but it's amazing how the animals that were flyers in their peak, rarely do much as veterans. Indeed often injuries have taken their toll before the poor sod reaches 6 years of age. Even more amazing that owners never learn from this and will continue in the same vein with future dogs.

Toppy hit on it earlier - it's the hard races that do the damage, not necessarily physical damage, but psychological too. Animals remember pain, and how it was caused. No one should be surprised that they start to look after themselves a bit more as they get older. They DO suffer physical damage obviously, an accumulation of which must take it's toll on a horse's body. And to use the dog analogy again, it's NEVER the slower animals that get injured, it's the quick ones that are stretching things to breaking point <ok>
 
I agree that the classics are run far too early. Horses are still developing at the age of 7, albeit more slowly. Some horses develop faster than others, depending on genes and nutrition etc and those that develop more slowly could well be superior than the early maturers that are ready to win the classics as 3yo. When a classic winning colt goes to stud at 3 we never know whether he would have been a super star at 4/5 or whether connections know that if kept in training he would be overtaken by later maturing horses. The more cynical among us would tend towards the latter. Personally I think it would be good for the breed if the classics were a year later, with horses not being aimed at 12 furlong classics so early in their development. Also it gives the late maturers a chance to close the gap or even surpass the early maturers, giving us a truer picture of which are the best middle distance horses of a generation.
 
Oddy one thing screams out at me about all your examples: they are all stayers. Therefore they are less reliant on speed. It's the speed gets blunted by age in my view. Kauto Star was winning staying chases in his twilight years, he'd have been unlikely to win two mile chases.

The Fly can't be at his peak at 10YO. This makes it more competitive though, as if he was, the Champion Hurdle would quite probably be a foregone conclusion. The youngsters can have no excuses :)
 
I think you have to throw the great Monksfield in the equation too. Made his debut at 2, raced until he was 8 (was unusually an entire and sent to stud) and in that time he had 49 races which saw him win 2 Champion Hurdles, 3 Aintree Hurdles and was also runner up in two further CH and a Triumph and he had many, many a battle.

Although he retired at 8, he certainly showed tremendous longevity in his 6 seasons by taking in nearly 50 races and he performed at the top level for all the big races.
 
Oddy, this is a very interesting article mate, and congrats on raising it. It's pushing on for midnight here, so I'll be brief. I think it's fair to say that horses, like all other athletes, need to be set for target races. And if an optimum effort is to be found, it's likely these efforts need to be spaced. For mine, I think for the most part, there are only a few of real efforts in an athlete per year. So it stands to reason that horses these days are being asked to go to the well much less often. I suppose this then gives the animal a more lengthened career. I don't think this applies to just the elite athlete either, I think it's an across the board thing.

The spark that inspired me to offer up my piece of lightweight input, centers around a cult hero who went around in the bush pacing scene in Northern Queensland in the 80s and early 90s. His name was Cane Smoke. And what an animal he was. He only made it to the city on four occasions, and much to his credit, he managed to snare a win there. What gave him his fame? His cast iron will. He didn't start racing until his fifth year, and by the time he hung up his hobbles, he was 15. In that decade, the warhorse managed to squeeze in some 400 races, winning 125 of them. He ran second 66 times, and filled the minor placing on no less the 70 occasions. I guess, sometimes, it just all about what's between an athlete's ears.

Well done to all who contributed the Oddy's well thought out piece.

P.S. In his 10th year, he set a record for all breeds, (thoroughbreds included) with an impressive 34 wins.
 
Agreed Cyc. An intelligent horse will tend to look after itself more. Also a well balanced horse, conformation-wise, is less likely to injure itself due to compensatory measures.
 
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