Match Day Thread Blackburn Vs Norwich

[RiverEndRick]

My use of the two 10 match periods was so that the form tables could be used for comparison.

 

[Robbie BB]

Rick, I am genuinely puzzled about what we are supposed to take from position in the form table other than the obvious (i.e. that we have garnered more points in the last x matches than this number of our competitors and fewer than that number).
Currently, post-Blackburn, we are 6th over 4, 6 and 10 matches, but 4th over 5 and 8 matches (illustrating, incidentally, how, in Rob's words "......... we can all play silly games with arbitrary choices of divisible").
Three weeks ago, prior to the QPR game, you posted that we were 5th in the form table over 5, 10 and 15 matches (i.e over the period that began with the away win at Cardiff and finished with the home win over Coventry).
So my question: what exactly are we supposed to take from this?
What might be more informative would be a line graph plotting position in the form table match by match over the season. Does anyone publish such data in addition to the current form tables?

 

[RiverEndRick]

For me, form tables are merely an indicator of current momentum rather than a stat. They also give an alternative way of looking at the current points table. I like your idea of a form graph, but don't know of one. At the moment we're trying to gain a 5th or 6th playoff place against 5 other teams. Over the last 5 games Preston have 13 points, we have 11, Hull have 10 but West Brom only have 8 and Coventry 7. The only two of those we still have to play are Sunderland and Preston, whereas the others still have more games against each other. We also have Leicester away and Ipswich at home to come so momentum and the confidence it gives will be important, as will be any injuries for us or others.

 

[Robbie BB]

I like your idea of a form graph, but don't know of one.

Would be easy enough to generate. Might even have a go myself in idle moments

 

[Canary Rob]

For me, form tables are merely an indicator of current momentum rather than a stat. They also give an alternative way of looking at the current points table. I like your idea of a form graph, but don't know of one. At the moment we're trying to gain a 5th or 6th playoff place against 5 other teams. Over the last 5 games Preston have 13 points, we have 11, Hull have 10 but West Brom only have 8 and Coventry 7. The only two of those we still have to play are Sunderland and Preston, whereas the others still have more games against each other. We also have Leicester away and Ipswich at home to come so momentum and the confidence it gives will be important, as will be any injuries for us or others.

Completely agree. The only reliable form guide is a 46-game one in a single season. Otherwise, they are a snapshot of current trends with lots of variables which make it complex to know exactly what they show.

However, momentum is, while difficult to assess scientifically, undoubtedly an important factor in football as psychological factors play a huge part in a way that cold hard stats cannot truly show. And form guides are also useful indicators of the psychological state of a team.

If we can maintain our form, not only will that see us into the play-off positions, it will also mean I will be positive about our chances in the playoffs themselves. It’s why, in a weird way, I think - to take an extreme example - eight wins and four losses (in that order) even though we would likely be in the play-offs, would be a bad thing, whereas eg seven wins, three draws and a loss in a bit of a mix over our remaining games would mean I will feel much more positive.

 

[Robbie BB]

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Match 16 was the away game v Cardiff, which we won 2:3, taking us up three places in the form table to 20th. The international break which followed was spent addressing the unsustainable rate of goals conceded (2 per game). The subsequent run of 8 games, nos. 17 to 24, saw us climb the form table to 4th. Over the subsequent 10 games our average position has been 7th, median 6.5. Since the defensive reset, the rate of goals conceded has been halved, to 1 per game.

Edit: I've now duplicated the post on the 2023--2024 Season thread

 

[RiverEndRick]

Well done Robbie - very interesting.