Off Topic Bill Nicholson Arms
- Thread starter ShelfSideSpur
- Start date
-
Please bear with us on the new site integration and fixing any known bugs over the coming days. If you can not log in please try resetting your password and check your spam box. If you have tried these steps and are still struggling email [email protected] with your username/registered email address
-
New Zealand had 25 deaths in a population of 5m. So Sweden would have had 50 and the Uk 385 if they had managed it in the same way.
No more people have died this year than any other year so basically covid is taking out those who would have died anyway. if you do the maths the maximum who could die in the UK is 0.2/100*68M less the amount who have already died. Roughly 86k. Many of those will die with or without covid anyway. This lockdown rubbish is destroying businesses and livelihoods to save a few old farts like me, Trust me, it ain't worth it.
I don't agree, do the maths, you are looking at roughly 135k max deaths give of take about 10% based on 99.8% recovery. Nearly all people reaching the ends of their lives and would rather 3 months of living than 12 month of prison.
We keep people alive too long in this country. The NHS kept my dear old mum alive for nine years with three operations for cancer. She never stopped bleeding that whole nine years and was in intense pain for most of it. Eventually she refused her medicine and had to attack the staff when they tried to force her. They phoned me, as she had no mental capacity and said 'your mum is refusing to take her medicine, she will die', I said if that is what she wants you better let her die then. Less than a week later she was comfortable again.
Forget New Zealand. They have an advantage being able to isolate easily but worse, they are kicking the can down the road. Even with a vaccine we lose roughly 45-65k people a year from influenza, COVID very likely will be the same. Humans evolve, those susceptible to something will die off, the rest of the population will get stronger. The number of deaths in this is a red herring, herd immunity, even with a vaccine is the goal. Anyone who thinks once everyone is vaccinated that will be the end of it is off their trolly, we have to live with this for a very long time. It is not like smallpox, it does not kill most of its hosts within a few days, the most successful viruses don't kill their hosts, the next most successful spread easily and killing few or killing slowly like HIV.
This will be a long game, what matters is being in the lead after 90 minutes, not 3-0 up 5 minutes into the first half.
Please stop requoting nonsense. The number of flu deaths that month was only a few thousand. Flu leads to very few hospitalisations compared to COVID-19 and is much less infectious and so has no danger of overwhelming the NHS even in a bad year.
So that is what all of this is about, overwhelming the NHS. Well if that is the case, rather than waste all of the money spent on lockdowns, build some more nightingales and train more staff. Once herd immunity is achieved we will be well on the way to solving the issue.
It takes 3 years to train a nurse and at least 5 to train a doctor. The virus doubles in about a week with no precautions and 10% of those who catch it go into hospital. So starting from now, all the hospitals would be full in a month. That means people with heart attacks etc would get no treatment. Wearing masks (which is what started this discussion), isolation with symptoms and social distancing is enough by itself to stop this, but we don't have enough compliance with this because of disinformation and ineffective government so we have costly lockdowns instead, which themselves are half baked and released too quickly.
Herd immunity can be achieved with a vaccine with no excess deaths, or with millions from relaxing controls.
They couldn't staff the Nightingale hospitals that they already created. It's not like we can bring people in, either.
Wow. I'm all for freedom of speech but you're moving into dangerous territory here. Covid kills people. People who don't wear masks and ignore social distancing kill other people. This is serious stuff. People playing down this pandemic is akin to people who don't believe climate change. The difference with Covid is that a far higher proportion of experts believe that it's a real, serious and potentially lethal disease. Quoting stats is not going to protect anyone. Moreover this is so serious that I'd be tempted to make vaccination compulsory save for medical exemption. "Freedom of choice" everyone screams, but this isn't about just the person being vaccinated. It's about who they could infect, even while being asymptomatic. You're not allowed to drink drive, not just because of the damage you could do to yourself, but the damage you could do to other people. What's the difference? And as for stats, it's stating the obvious but people who died this year doesn't include people who didn't die this year... who didn't die because they protected themselves (and others). Until you know that any other discussion on stats is meaningless.
Because they're an island? So are we.
New Zealand were able to isolate because they're an island. You know who else is an island?
You must log in or register to see images
The key difference is that NZ introduced both a strict lockdown and quarantine measures for all arrivals in the end of March - while the UK muddled about because protecting insurers was their priority before eventually stumbling into lockdown in March yet didn't bother with quarantining arrivals into the country until June
That second part is what is ultimately unforgivable, because not only did the UK's Patient Zero brought Covid back from a ski trip in Austria yet there was no quarantine for him and he certainly didn't self-isolate, but when NYC was turning into The Last of Us there were dozens of planes from NYC arriving at Gatwick and Heathrow every day yet the people were off the plane, through immigration and onto the London Underground as if everything was fine
Also, since I'm on the subject, this is something that I love to throw at the "We should do something about China" mob: so our Patient Zero came via Austria, does that mean we need to "do something" about Austria letting him on a plane? Or should we "do something" about Germany and the USA of America as there were Germans and Americans in their ski party? Or should we "do something" about the UK since our passport control let the bloke into the country without putting him in quarantine at any point?
Patient zero? That is a needle in a haystack. It had been around for at least 2 months when our crap government unveiled patient zero. If you believe all that government ****e perhaps you might like to buy some pink unicorns from me. This government, in fact every MP of every bloody party, is full of ****e.
I caught the bloody stuff on the 6th Jan from a girl at work who had been skiing in Chamonix over Christmas. Because the useless bloody government said it wasn't in the UK, I visited both Ashford and Banbury hospitals. The rest is history as they say. A lot of people died in Ashford, including two doctors, I hope it wasn't related to me but I somehow doubt it. As I've said about NZ, they are an isolated island. We can't even stop a few rubber dinghies. I still think NZ have just kicked to can down the road and still think that we keep people alive too long. But hey ho, only time will tell.
And the cases/deaths for the UK / France / Italy
"And let me debunk the obvious follow-up comments since I'm here"
Oh, a "debunker" .
"Sweden: 10.3m population, 64.7sq mi density
Norway: 5.4m population, 36.8sq mi density
Finland: 5.5m population, 41.4sq mi density"
Feel free to tell us :
1. the population densities of the four largest cities in Sweden
2. how that compares to those of the four largest cities in the UK
3. the death rates for 1 and 2
"The numbers simply do not match the opinion - which is what it is, an opinion, and not a well-founded one - that countries
should follow Sweden's lead."
There is no "opinion" . There is fact.
The fact that Sweden has a far lower death rate than the UK,
with ostensibly far less draconian measures.
So someone such as I, who has worked on large scale system models/simulations
(both definition and implementation) , immediately seeks to know what is happening.
Is Sweden a statistical "outlier" ??
Perhaps so.
Easiest way to find out is to get the parametric descriptions of say
their four largest cities ( "debunk"
) and plug them into the modelsdevised the likes of f*ckwit Neil Ferguson and see whay happens.
"Instead they serve as another example of people using data modelling while not bothering to research
what herd immunity actually involves"
| will gladly yield to your superior academic and industry experience
on the system modelling/simulation that is actual or akin to epidemiology,
Which is ... ??
If your measure is Corona deaths per million then you have stated that
NZ has a measure of 5, and Sweden has 50 x 5 = 250.
Do you consider the substantial economic damage that may
be caused in NZ compared to Sweden, to be a price worth paying
for saying that you had a 1000 odd less deaths ??
Are people suggesting that we follow the French or Italian approach, even if that not only requires but outright demands that you to outright ignore the actual data?And the cases/deaths for the UK / France / Italy
"And let me debunk the obvious follow-up comments since I'm here"
Oh, a "debunker" .
"Sweden: 10.3m population, 64.7sq mi density
Norway: 5.4m population, 36.8sq mi density
Finland: 5.5m population, 41.4sq mi density"
Feel free to tell us :
1. the population densities of the four largest cities in Sweden
2. how that compares to those of the four largest cities in the UK
3. the death rates for 1 and 2
"The numbers simply do not match the opinion - which is what it is, an opinion, and not a well-founded one - that countries
should follow Sweden's lead."
There is no "opinion" . There is fact.
The fact that Sweden has a far lower death rate than the UK,
with ostensibly far less draconian measures.
So someone such as I, who has worked on large scale system models/simulations
(both definition and implementation) , immediately seeks to know what is happening.
Is Sweden a statistical "outlier" ??
Perhaps so.
Easiest way to find out is to get the parametric descriptions of say
their four largest cities ( "debunk"
devised the likes of f*ckwit Neil Ferguson and see whay happens.
"Instead they serve as another example of people using data modelling while not bothering to research
what herd immunity actually involves"
| will gladly yield to your superior academic and industry experience
on the system modelling/simulation that is actual or akin to epidemiology,
Which is ... ??
No, they aren't
So yes, I'm a debunker - because when people spout easily-debunked garbage, it needs to be debunked otherwise people might think said garbage had any worth and listen to it
No, in your deluded mind you are a "debunker" ,
In reality you are nothing more than a 'wikipedia warrior' , shouting the odds about
data science statistics and systems modelling/simulation, to people who do such
work in the real world.
No. I am saying that NZ, who acted decisively to control the virus will have less economic damage than Sweden, who didn't. The choice isn't between deaths and economic damage.