Every fight produces hype, and the hype is always the same: it will be a fantastic fight that could go either way. The truth is that the great majority of fights are 90% predictable and this is one of them. As a boxer, Mayweather has lost much less with age than an action fighter like Pac. Pacquaio was knocked senseless for a minute two fights ago, has lost two of his last four, and hasn’t knocked anyone out in six years. Mayweather remains undefeated and apparently very near his best. He’s faster and far more skillful. He may not have lost a round against the man who stopped Pac. He’s also almost shockingly bigger. Pacquiao is not nearly as ripped as he usually is, indicating he knows he needs a little flab to weigh 147. Mayweather will probably bring 8 or 10 extra pounds of muscle into the ring. Ten years ago Pac at his Tasmanian Devil peak was able to outspeed and overwhelm some though not all top boxers. Even then I would have made Mayweather the favorite.
Of course, there are always idiots around like
Bryan Armen Graham to tell ignorant fans what they want to hear. "Pacquiao is not the same fighter he was five years ago but much of that has to do with complacency and lack of motivation." Right. Nothing to do with the process of aging, abetted by thousands of blows to the head and punctuated by a devastating concussion. After all, we all know that fighters who have lost a step due to the ravages of age and the brutal nature of their sport get it right back when faced with an engaging challenge. Just as we can all reverse the aging process if we click our heels together three times.
It never got funnier than when Arturo Gatti fought Mayweather. Fans fell over themselves explaining how a real man like Gatti would have no trouble walking through a cowardly brat like Mayweather. There seemed to be a collective inability to understand that boxing is a skill, and character has about as much to do with the outcome of a boxing match as it does with the outcome of a 100 meter race. Gatti didn’t win a single minute of a single round.
It’s an interesting question how much of this kind of foolishness is done in the service of making easy money for those who bet on the favorite.
It remains true that one moment can change everything. Fighters can and have sprained ankles and separated shoulders in the ring, not to mention the ever-present danger of fight-ending cuts and perfect shots, lucky or no. But It should be a routine Mayweather win. 9-1 are about the right odds.
The key to a lefty righty fight is the right handers right hand. If he has a good enough, straight enough right hand, the left hander is in trouble. Pac has always been easy to hit. Mayweather has a five inch reach advantage and a pin straight, quick right which Pac will eat, probably, until he falls over.
And, yes, no doubt boxing at least in the US has been going downhill for a long time.