Betfair Hurdle
- Thread starter OddDog
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Must confess that I was most taken by this horses British debut on New Years Day. Toothless probably didn't beat much but, cor blimey, in pulling 35 lengths clear he did it very, very well. Certainly went in my notebook that day. Is also a half-brother to forum favourite, Sceau Royal.
After his win on 27 December, at Kempton, I did have No Ordinary Joe headlined for this contest but The Lieutenant has since said that he thinks this one will be even better over further than 2 miles. If No Ordinary Joe does go to Newbury though he has to be a major contender even off an impost 5 lbs higher than at Kempton. Don't think those bookie chappies though are being that generous over current quotes re him and the Betfair (10/1, a month prior to 'tapes up').
Meanwhile, I see that the ante-post fave, Gaelic Warrior, is set to go tomorrow at Clonmel. Interesting to see the market reaction after this run.
Finally, the 'Sporting Life' have done a good piece, this morn, re the Betfair and possible outsiders - https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/betfair-hurdle-tips-three-outsiders-to-consider/206554
Gaelic Warrior hosed up at Clonmel and will now carry top weight in the Betfair Hurdle - his 5lbs penalty for winning today puts him on an effective rating of 154 but I think he gets away with just 3lbs extra because he was due to carry 11-11 and the race conditions state that no penalty is to increase a horse's weight above 12st.
Still very short odds in a big field handicap hurdle.
Still very short odds in a big field handicap hurdle.
Makes me wonder if he might be another My Tent Or Yours of course - and that prompted me to re-watch his stunning victory in the race in 2013. Coincidentally, he also won off a rating of 149 (without a penalty) but his shrewd trainer had top-weight Petit Robin in there running off top weight meaning MTOY had a lovely racing weight of 11-2.
Gaelic Warrior is certainly an interesting horse and is, of course, still a novice so it will be very interesting to see which entries he gets for Cheltenham. Although Blue Sari doesn't have an official hurdles rating, he is rated 150 over fences and Gaelic Warrior toyed with him (albeit in receipt of 3lbs). I guess if he wins the Betfair off that rating that will pretty much handicap him out of any of the festival handicaps so it will be Supreme or Ballymore.
If Mother Nature permits Toothless will run in the Grade 2 Rossington Main Novices' Hurdle at Haydock Park (1.30) on Saturday. Harry Cobden booked to ride.
Jonbon won the race last term.
Scratched from the Betfair Hurdle and runs in the Scottish Supreme Novices Hurdle at Musselburgh tomorrow.
Icare Allen entered off a rating of 142 and currently allotted 11-08.
He brings the form of last year's Triumph Hurdle to the race, having finished 4th. The winner, Vauban, is now rated 160. Fil D'Or has gone chasing but reached 147 over hurdles. Third placed Pied Piper is rated 147 and 5th placed Il Etait Temps won the big grade 1 novice hurdle yesterday.
Icare Allen ran a nice 3rd place in a big handicap hurdle at Fairyhouse last time out off 140 and I think he has a big chance here.
He brings the form of last year's Triumph Hurdle to the race, having finished 4th. The winner, Vauban, is now rated 160. Fil D'Or has gone chasing but reached 147 over hurdles. Third placed Pied Piper is rated 147 and 5th placed Il Etait Temps won the big grade 1 novice hurdle yesterday.
Icare Allen ran a nice 3rd place in a big handicap hurdle at Fairyhouse last time out off 140 and I think he has a big chance here.
I think I'll stick with my long term "fancies" Highway One O Two, at 22/1 and Tritonic at 28/1
but I do fear Filey Bay 7/2 and Master Chewy 8/1
I like Rubaud and Master Chewy in this but I can't pick my nose at the moment so it might be wise to put a line through both.
I wonder will we see more money for the favourite through the day, could it go off a ridiculous price for what should be a tight knit affair. I think he's plenty short as is, maybe some think he represents value at 10/3 but I'd be happy to take him on at that price.
I wonder will we see more money for the favourite through the day, could it go off a ridiculous price for what should be a tight knit affair. I think he's plenty short as is, maybe some think he represents value at 10/3 but I'd be happy to take him on at that price.
BETFAIR HURDLE: TIMEFORM PREVIEW AND FREE RACE PASS
By Timeform — published 10th February 2023
The Betfair Hurdle (15:35) at Newbury on Saturday is available as a free Race Pass, which means logged-in customers can view all our premium comments and ratings.
There’s a typically large and competitive field for the Betfair Hurdle (15:35) at Newbury with 18 runners declared for a first prize of more than £87,000, several of them shaping well last time and/or on the upgrade.
Nigel Twiston-Davies has won this three times with novices and went very close to doing so again last year with I Like To Move It who was beaten a short head. The same connections’ Master Chewy (159p) looks another novice with strong claims this year off bottom weight. He’s yet to win a race but is very lightly raced and would have run out a convincing winner at Ascot on his second start over hurdles but for falling at the last. He has run into some other promising novices since when runner-up to Attacca at Cheltenham and Hansard at Plumpton, and is capable of better again going into his first handicap.
Filey Bay (157p) looks interesting too on his first start in the colours of J. P. McManus. He too has had very little racing over hurdles and only joined Emmet Mullins’ stable this season. He got off the mark in a handicap at Doncaster when much improved on his debut for Mullins in November and followed up at Wincanton five days later, earning the ‘Horse In Focus’ flag for a very snug length win over Shallow River. He looks to have been laid out of this and is another who’ll improve again.
This is one big handicap hurdle which has eluded Dan Skelton so far but the ‘Hot Trainer’ has chances with Faivoir (158), he too a ‘Horse In Focus’ last time. He began last season over fences, winning twice, but then returned to hurdles later on, running his best race when third in the Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso. He was never on terms when a keeping-on fourth at Kempton in December after nine months off, shaping as if retaining plenty of ability, and could well be more competitive from an attractive mark and wearing cheekpieces for only the second time.
Like Master Chewy, Deere Mark (154p) is another lightly-weighted and unexposed type. He has won his last two starts for Sam Thomas, following up a novice win at Hereford in December with a successful handicap debut at Kempton last month, leading on the bridle at the last before quickening clear to beat Kaleb a length and a half. He earned the ‘Horse In Focus’ flag last time and is another who is improving.
Similar comments apply to Monviel (153p) for Philip Hobbs. He progressed well over hurdles last season, winning a maiden at Sandown and a novice at Wincanton and resumed his improvement when making an impressive return at Ascot, making all the running and quickening clear in the straight to beat Shanroe by eight and a half lengths. He’s presumably been kept fresh for this, having had nearly three months off.
The most recent of Nicky Henderson’s five wins in this race came in 2013 with My Tent Or Yours in the McManus colours and the ‘Hot Trainer’ saddles the unexposed No Ordinary Joe (155) for the same owner here. He won a couple of ordinary novices early last season before running a good third in the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham. After shaping as if amiss next time, No Ordinary Joe returned from a year off at Kempton in December better than ever, though had quite a hard race in beating Big Boy Bobby a head with Faivoir back in fourth.
Paul Nicholls fields the in-form pair of Rubaud (154) and Hacker des Places (153). Harry Cobden’s mount Rubaud began the season landing the odds with ease in a maiden and novice at Taunton and showed improved form in a better-quality novice at Kempton on Boxing Day when seven lengths second to another progressive type in Rare Edition but finishing clear of the rest. The return to better ground here should be in his favour. Regular partner Angus Cheleda takes 5 lb off the back of Hacker des Places, effectively negating the penalty he picked up for winning a strong-looking handicap at Cheltenham a fortnight ago by a neck from Might I. He’s as reliable as they come with a first-rate attitude as well.
Front-running Highway One O Two (157) is on a career-high handicap mark but not weighted out of things. He had little chance taking on Constitution Hill in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton last time, finishing a well-held third, but prior to that had jumped really well when beating Hacker des Places impressively by seven and a half lengths at Ascot in October. Chris Gordon’s other runner Aucunrisque (155+) also likes to go from the front and has been chasing this season, runner-up in the Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase at Kempton last time, but did well over hurdles last term, winning the Dovecote Novices’ at Kempton among his four victories.
Willie Mullins supplies another in the McManus colours, Icare Allen (154). He wasn’t too far behind the best juveniles last year, winning a Grade 3 at Fairyhouse and finishing fourth in the Triumph at Cheltenham, and he ran well under a big weight on his handicap debut/reappearance when third to Merlin Giant in a valuable contest at Fairyhouse in December.
The likeable Onemorefortheroad (157) won the Gerry Fielden here last season before making the frame in the Betfair Exchange Trophy at Ascot, the Imperial Cup at Sandown and the Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr. He shaped well when upped in trip on his reappearance at Aintree but was a disappointing favourite in Monviel’s race at Ascot next time and, like the winner, has had a break since.
Gary Moore knows how to win this and Teddy Blue (157) runs here after picking up a penalty for completing a simple task in a maiden hurdle at Lingfield last time. He’s been much more highly tried in the past, however, and had been disqualified after being first past the post in a similar event at Fontwell earlier in the season. He’s a free-going type, likely to be suited by the pace of a big-field handicap such as this. Moore also runs the lightly-raced Yorksea (153), he too a winner last time when a convincing winner at Fontwell on Boxing Day, but is in a much more competitive handicap here.
The other one to mention is last year’s winner Glory And Fortune (154+) who went on to finish fourth in the Champion Hurdle. He has more on his plate this time but should at least be happier back hurdling after his jumping let him down over fences the last twice, finishing a long way behind Aucunrisque in the Wayward Lad last time.
Timeform Analyst’s Verdict:
Given that Nigel Twiston-Davies has won this three times with novices, Master Chewy catches the eye off bottom weight. His maiden status doesn't do him justice as he would have won at Ascot but for falling at the last and he's bumped into very promising sorts on his two outings since. Filey Bay, who has been purchased by J P McManus since scoring twice for this yard at the start of the winter, looks to have been laid out for this and is an obvious threat. Faivoir and Deere Mark are also shortlisted.
Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings:
159p Master Chewy
158 Faivoir
157p Filey Bay
157 Highway One O Two
157 Onemorefortheroad
157 Teddy Blue
156 Restitution
155+ Aucunrisque
155 No Ordinary Joe
154p Deere Mark
154+ Glory And Fortune
154 Glorious Zoff
154 Icare Allen
154 Rubaud
153p Monviel
153 Hacker des Places
153 Yorksea
? Tritonic
Race Passes are the ultimate form guide, providing Timeform analysis, Flags and ratings for every runner in every race in Britain and Ireland. Subscribers have access to additional features that add extra levels of insight, including complete performance histories, an extensive form archive and unlimited use of horse, jockey and trainer searches.
Just log in and click here to view the full card and Timeform analysis for the 15:35 at Newbury on Saturday. You can subscribe to Race Passes to access every race here.
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By Timeform — published 10th February 2023
The Betfair Hurdle (15:35) at Newbury on Saturday is available as a free Race Pass, which means logged-in customers can view all our premium comments and ratings.
There’s a typically large and competitive field for the Betfair Hurdle (15:35) at Newbury with 18 runners declared for a first prize of more than £87,000, several of them shaping well last time and/or on the upgrade.
Nigel Twiston-Davies has won this three times with novices and went very close to doing so again last year with I Like To Move It who was beaten a short head. The same connections’ Master Chewy (159p) looks another novice with strong claims this year off bottom weight. He’s yet to win a race but is very lightly raced and would have run out a convincing winner at Ascot on his second start over hurdles but for falling at the last. He has run into some other promising novices since when runner-up to Attacca at Cheltenham and Hansard at Plumpton, and is capable of better again going into his first handicap.
Filey Bay (157p) looks interesting too on his first start in the colours of J. P. McManus. He too has had very little racing over hurdles and only joined Emmet Mullins’ stable this season. He got off the mark in a handicap at Doncaster when much improved on his debut for Mullins in November and followed up at Wincanton five days later, earning the ‘Horse In Focus’ flag for a very snug length win over Shallow River. He looks to have been laid out of this and is another who’ll improve again.
This is one big handicap hurdle which has eluded Dan Skelton so far but the ‘Hot Trainer’ has chances with Faivoir (158), he too a ‘Horse In Focus’ last time. He began last season over fences, winning twice, but then returned to hurdles later on, running his best race when third in the Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso. He was never on terms when a keeping-on fourth at Kempton in December after nine months off, shaping as if retaining plenty of ability, and could well be more competitive from an attractive mark and wearing cheekpieces for only the second time.
Like Master Chewy, Deere Mark (154p) is another lightly-weighted and unexposed type. He has won his last two starts for Sam Thomas, following up a novice win at Hereford in December with a successful handicap debut at Kempton last month, leading on the bridle at the last before quickening clear to beat Kaleb a length and a half. He earned the ‘Horse In Focus’ flag last time and is another who is improving.
Similar comments apply to Monviel (153p) for Philip Hobbs. He progressed well over hurdles last season, winning a maiden at Sandown and a novice at Wincanton and resumed his improvement when making an impressive return at Ascot, making all the running and quickening clear in the straight to beat Shanroe by eight and a half lengths. He’s presumably been kept fresh for this, having had nearly three months off.
The most recent of Nicky Henderson’s five wins in this race came in 2013 with My Tent Or Yours in the McManus colours and the ‘Hot Trainer’ saddles the unexposed No Ordinary Joe (155) for the same owner here. He won a couple of ordinary novices early last season before running a good third in the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham. After shaping as if amiss next time, No Ordinary Joe returned from a year off at Kempton in December better than ever, though had quite a hard race in beating Big Boy Bobby a head with Faivoir back in fourth.
Paul Nicholls fields the in-form pair of Rubaud (154) and Hacker des Places (153). Harry Cobden’s mount Rubaud began the season landing the odds with ease in a maiden and novice at Taunton and showed improved form in a better-quality novice at Kempton on Boxing Day when seven lengths second to another progressive type in Rare Edition but finishing clear of the rest. The return to better ground here should be in his favour. Regular partner Angus Cheleda takes 5 lb off the back of Hacker des Places, effectively negating the penalty he picked up for winning a strong-looking handicap at Cheltenham a fortnight ago by a neck from Might I. He’s as reliable as they come with a first-rate attitude as well.
Front-running Highway One O Two (157) is on a career-high handicap mark but not weighted out of things. He had little chance taking on Constitution Hill in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton last time, finishing a well-held third, but prior to that had jumped really well when beating Hacker des Places impressively by seven and a half lengths at Ascot in October. Chris Gordon’s other runner Aucunrisque (155+) also likes to go from the front and has been chasing this season, runner-up in the Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase at Kempton last time, but did well over hurdles last term, winning the Dovecote Novices’ at Kempton among his four victories.
Willie Mullins supplies another in the McManus colours, Icare Allen (154). He wasn’t too far behind the best juveniles last year, winning a Grade 3 at Fairyhouse and finishing fourth in the Triumph at Cheltenham, and he ran well under a big weight on his handicap debut/reappearance when third to Merlin Giant in a valuable contest at Fairyhouse in December.
The likeable Onemorefortheroad (157) won the Gerry Fielden here last season before making the frame in the Betfair Exchange Trophy at Ascot, the Imperial Cup at Sandown and the Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr. He shaped well when upped in trip on his reappearance at Aintree but was a disappointing favourite in Monviel’s race at Ascot next time and, like the winner, has had a break since.
Gary Moore knows how to win this and Teddy Blue (157) runs here after picking up a penalty for completing a simple task in a maiden hurdle at Lingfield last time. He’s been much more highly tried in the past, however, and had been disqualified after being first past the post in a similar event at Fontwell earlier in the season. He’s a free-going type, likely to be suited by the pace of a big-field handicap such as this. Moore also runs the lightly-raced Yorksea (153), he too a winner last time when a convincing winner at Fontwell on Boxing Day, but is in a much more competitive handicap here.
The other one to mention is last year’s winner Glory And Fortune (154+) who went on to finish fourth in the Champion Hurdle. He has more on his plate this time but should at least be happier back hurdling after his jumping let him down over fences the last twice, finishing a long way behind Aucunrisque in the Wayward Lad last time.
Timeform Analyst’s Verdict:
Given that Nigel Twiston-Davies has won this three times with novices, Master Chewy catches the eye off bottom weight. His maiden status doesn't do him justice as he would have won at Ascot but for falling at the last and he's bumped into very promising sorts on his two outings since. Filey Bay, who has been purchased by J P McManus since scoring twice for this yard at the start of the winter, looks to have been laid out for this and is an obvious threat. Faivoir and Deere Mark are also shortlisted.
Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings:
159p Master Chewy
158 Faivoir
157p Filey Bay
157 Highway One O Two
157 Onemorefortheroad
157 Teddy Blue
156 Restitution
155+ Aucunrisque
155 No Ordinary Joe
154p Deere Mark
154+ Glory And Fortune
154 Glorious Zoff
154 Icare Allen
154 Rubaud
153p Monviel
153 Hacker des Places
153 Yorksea
? Tritonic
Race Passes are the ultimate form guide, providing Timeform analysis, Flags and ratings for every runner in every race in Britain and Ireland. Subscribers have access to additional features that add extra levels of insight, including complete performance histories, an extensive form archive and unlimited use of horse, jockey and trainer searches.
Just log in and click here to view the full card and Timeform analysis for the 15:35 at Newbury on Saturday. You can subscribe to Race Passes to access every race here.