That's the trouble with stats. They are just facts. Next year the stat could be "all bar two of the last 18 winners have been aged seven or younger". In the last 24 races 3 8yo have won. In the last 8 runs no 7yo has won but 1 9yo has. No horse has ever carried more than 11.7 to victory. In the last 18 races only 3 have carried less than 10.6 to victory. What we don't know is how many from each age group were entered each year, whether they were weighted to win etc. Melodic Rendezvous has no chance on stats but if he had been prepared and ready for this race I wouldn't bet against him. Fact is, he probably hasn't.
Can I be the first to offer up Recession Proof, as there are usually 2/3 of us, referring to the form of THAT Supreme Hurdle where he came 5th blah blah blah. One muppet even had him in his 5 to follow for the season! Of the outsiders I'm interested in the ew chances of Twister's Splash of Ginge @ 25s. Some decent form including a 6 length 3rd to Irving with whom he reoppposes on 6lb better terms. Now watch Recession Proof hack up.
I think stats are just one more thing to consider Ron - sometimes I ignore them completely, other times I follow them religiously. For example, I would find it very hard to back a 5YO in the Champion Hurdle, because I believe the stat is backed up by nature (horse not fully matured at 5 etc etc). I think the trend for some years now has been for very good novice hurdlers to be aimed at this big pot and it would therefore take a good older one to win the race. Alaivan moving to Jackdaws Castle is clearly seen as a positive in many books (even I tipped him last time out) but I'm not convinced it can improve him enough to take this against some very nice younger sorts.
Apparently connections are deciding tonight whether or not Melodic Rendezvous will be running. As he is 20/1 on betfair I've decided to have a little bet knowing i probably won't get a run for my money.
Feel exactly the same way bob- Won the Greatwood in great style. Seemed to be going ok in the ladbroke but was very badly hampered and that was race over. But he is a very good, unexposed horse and feel he wil take some beating
Reports saying that Rolling Star has been very impressive at home, put a line through the ladbroke and on his day he is the class horse in the field Favourite for the Triumph, beating Far West & Irish Saint doesnt come easy
I was wondering when people would mention Recession Proof. I backed him in his last run (check out how well he is travelling before he falls). He won this race 2 years ago off the same mark as he will run on Saturday. A big showing is expected by me and he goes on the ground. Big big chance at relatively big odds! Get on board is my advice...
The final decs are out - http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/...cecard/600384/betfair-hurdle-grade-3-handicap Those bookie chappies are currently crying ‘6/1 the field’. Why is the McCoy boy not on Alaivan though?!? He’s ridden at a lower weight over the course of the past 12 months.
Maybe he doesn't fancy doing the weight Barney but I am more than happy to have another 5lb off his back!
I'd guess that he isn't a guaranteed runner. If he was pulled out because of the heavy going last time, he surely will be a doubt this weekend?
True, especially as he rode him for the first time when finishing 3¼l 2nd behind Quick Decision. If he can get down to 10.1 he was probably riding with 20lb dead weight in that last race. There is no way he was pulled because he doesn't act on heavy (he loves it); much more likely he was being saved for Saturday. I'm almost being swayed off my original fancy.
Morning everyone, Hope everyone is well. My bets for today: 2:25 Katenko 3:35 Totalize 3:45 Rivellino (NAP) 2nd to Perfect Pasture last time. 6lb better off with it and trainer confident. Good luck all. Off to Anfield now. Have a great day.
