Betfair Chase

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Shergar... You don't win two Cheltenham Gold Cup's without putting together a good overall round of jumping, The odd flick through the top of the fence can be expected not every horse can jump like the great Red Rum. Long Run hit about 7 of his fences at Cheltenham but his younger legs prevailed. Kauto Star can only beat what was there to beat at the time. Denman as won an Hennessy off top weight and placed again in three Gold Cups since his 'heart op' I don't buy it. Surely that would not have been possible if he wasn't the same horse as he was in 2008?

In last years King George Kauto would have finished closer to Long Run had he been 100%. His jumping around Kempton in years gone by as been second to none and that includes the great Desert Orchid. Long Run was impressive at Kempton last December but he's still three behind Kauto there so to come out with that comment Shergar '' I think Long Run's win in last years King George would have beaten Kauto in any of his four '' is totally totally ridiculous, Kauto was far far far more impressive in his 2009, 2008 and 2007 wins in the King George. Long Run is still a young horse and as all the potential in the world to better Kauto's CV and I hope he does but at this moment in time hes still it all to do....
 
Shergar gets himself off by criticising top class horses, just because they aren't his idea of the greatest ever.

Long Runs performances last year would have beaten Kauto in any of his wins? Have a day off.




Kauto was miles below his best last year and was still there at the final fence with Long Run initially struggling to pick he and Denman up. I think Long Run is there to be shot at personally, unless he wipes the floor with this lot at the weekend.
 
No horse would have beaten Kauto in 2009 in either the Gold Cup or the King George. He was nothing short of perfection on both occasions.

I must agree with you TopClass, i think Long Run would have been left in Kauto's wake on his 09 form. He's very good, no doubt about it, and he has enormous potential but i don't think he can be talked of in the same breath as either Kauto or Denman. His achievements pale into insignificance compared to those two, and i think a lot of his reputation (although thoroughly deserved in the main) is built on the fact that he has beaten two of the finest steeplechasers in the history of the game.

It is more a case of two great horses and one potentially great one. Long Run isn't there yet. In a couple of years he might well be though.

Is this the first of the Kauto v Denman arguments to grace Not606?! And on my thread too!!!
 
Let me just clarify my viewpoint- I am not knocking Long Run and his achievements. He was the best chaser of 2011. I just think it is incredibly bold, at best, to say that Long Run's 2011 performances would have seen off Kauto in 2008/9. Not because Long Run isnt top class, but more so that he just about saw them off last season, when almost all of their form suggests they were not quite at their peaks.

I can't help but think it is cheap digs at a chasing great in defence of your personal favourite in Denman. Both were outstanding, and that is that. We all have favourites but I find it sad that people haven't the ability to see the bigger picture and have to knock achievements, rather than celebrate them.

But hey ho.
 
If this turns into an ongoing slagging match like on BBC 606 I will close the thread.
 
TopClass, i think you have it spot on RE Long Run. <applause>

He's got huge potential but i don't think he's a 'great' just yet on the back of beating two former champions in Kauto Star and Denman.


To move the thread back on track, i think the defection of Rubi Light has slightly ruined the race as a betting heat. I'm not convinced that this is the time to be backing Long Run, even though it would be a surprise if he didn't win, and with just the two places available i don't think the EW value is there to oppose him either.

If Long Run drifts a little then i might be tempted to get involved but he would need to be around Evens or just below and i don't see that happening.

I will probably leave the race alone as a consequence.
 
I may be going mad, i may be deluded, i may just be hopelessly optimistic but is a victory for the legend that is Kauto Star not as unrealistic as some might suggest?

If we ignore the Punchestown run which i think is perfectly reasonable - he ran like a drain that day, so age cannot possibly have been the reason - we then have the Gold Cup and the King George.

Gold Cup - He travelled like the best horse in the race, and i was convinced he was going to win coming round the home turn. In the end he tired up the hill as Long Run, and Denman came past him. If Ruby had held onto him for a little bit longer he might well have been closer. And if the track had been flat and a less testing (for example Haydock, rather than Cheltenham) then is it not possible that he would have been much closer given the way he travelled through the race? He was only beaten 11 lengths and this could feasibly have been far less on a less testing track.

King George - He never found any sort of rhythm this day. His jumping was off, he never travelled and, to my eye, he looked beat going down the home straight for the first time. Nevertheless he kept on well enough and was all set to be clear second best before blundering away his chance at the second last. He was beaten a long way (19 lengths) but given the subsequent findings that he bled and had a small virus, and given the way he ran (ie no fluency and jumping poorly) he surely deserved to be a lot closer than he was. The margin of defeat in the Gold Cup suggests that he was well below par this day.

Therefore, is the 8/1 starting to look pretty decent. I am not for one minute suggesting that he is as good as he was, because it is clear that he isn't. However, he is still the 2nd highest rated in the race and i think there is a reasonable case to say that he could have been at least a little closer to Long Run on both occasions they have met. In the Gold Cup Long Run looked an out and out galloper. He simply outstayed both Kauto and Denman up the hill. Haydock is a far less punishing test of stamina, and assuming that Long Run will not be fully wound up for this (as would seem the case) and that Kauto will be (Nicholls says he is ready for a big performance) is it ridiculous to see Kauto coming out on top?! Even if he ran up to his Gold Cup form then he is entitled to give Long Run a race of it if he is not at his very best. The ground should be good, which will be in his favour, and the track should suit him better than Long Run too.

It might be mad, but we can but dream. Is anybody else thinking this, or is it just me?
It was David Johnson of Timeform who suggested this argument and i can see where he's coming from.

Haydock is bloody miles away from Cambridge, and yet i am slowly convincing myself that i should be making the journey . . .
 
I'll be going EW on Kauto for good times sake, with a saver up to the price of the first bet on Long Run to win for realisms sake.
 
I agree Zen - the price is good given the calibre. I think Long Run will win, but to be honest as an EW punt Kauto looks solid value. Maybe I'm optimistic too, but it does seem sensible.
 
I am of the impression Rubi Light has been withdrawn?


300/1 on Betfair.

That is a shame, I'd have liked to have seen him take his chance.
 
TopClass said:
Weird Al ran a lovely race in the Charlie Hall, and if he were to confirm form with Time For Rupert and even win the Betfair, I think you would have to take him seriously. That said, historically he is better fresh and I think this time he might struggle to confirm the form. It would not be a bad thing for the NH scene were he to wn though, as he is clearly a talent, if somewhat fragile.
Click to expand...

Not often I disagree with your excellent analysis Toppy but I don't think you can say Weird Al is better fresh. In his novice chase season he won his debut in the Steel Plate & Sections Novices chase by a neck from Knockara Beau before taking another class 2 novice chase a month later at Prestbury Park, beating IMHO a much better field including Pigeon Island, Five Dream and Minella Theatre in convincing fashion. 2 months later he took the Grade 2 Towton Novices chase, again from Konckara Beau, before injury curtailed his season.

Last season he started well, dead-heating with Little Josh, but for me he wasn't right in either the Hennessey or Gold Cup as neither were his true running. His run at Wetherby was very impressive and he looks rejuvenated by Don McCain.

If he puts in a stinker again on Saturday I may buy into the "best when fresh" theory, but at the moment I firmly believe he wasn't right last season and am convinced he will be the one to give Long Run the most to think about on Saturday.
 
It's all part of a good old debate Oddy <cheers>

You might be right actually, especially in the sense he may have not been right in the GC last season.

My point about the 'fresh' performances was more in reference to his 4 wins from 4 on seasonal reappearances, with my idea not that he gets worse as the season progresses, but that he is unlikey to come on as much for that run in comparison to Time For Rupert, or if we take the Amlin chase as an example, Master Minded. So I think if he does confirm form from the Charlie Hall, then he should begin to be taken very seriously.

Any news on the going at Haydock?
 
Will be interesting if it does stay good ground. I was hoping for soft ground to see how Time For Rupert gets on, but he seemed to handle good ground well enough last time, though I worry about a turn of foot that he might not have on this quicker surface.

Thought Kauto Star might have things in his favour- he has tended to go very well on good ground, and last years Gold Cup effort on good ground was very good as well, travelled as well as anything.

On a a side note, I'm just looking at Betfair's King George market. Noble Prince does have an entry- does anyone think he might take up his place?
 
I think they were talking about it for Noble Prince Toppy.

On a side note, I have been at the Next Generation Lauch tonight. Mr Waley-Cohen said 'Kauto is not a big price he's a monumental price'. However, he does expect a bold show from Long Run, defeat would be disappointing.
 
Sometimes it pays to keep it simple. Long Run won the King George comprehensively, and the Gold Cup equally comprehensively. That form can't really be quibbled in my opinion. Furtermore, his owner and trainer are both convinced he's still improving. The only other runner with comparible form is rising 12 and on the downgrade. QED, surely.
 
Latest Press Release:

LONG RUN HEADS STELLAR HALF DOZEN FOR BETFAIR CHASE

- WEIRD AL IS “GRAND” SAYS McCAIN​

Several of the very best chasers in the land are set to line up in Saturday’s £200,000 Betfair Chase (3.05pm), the highlight of the two-day Betfair Chase Festival at Haydock Park, which starts tomorrow.

Long Run, last season’s stunning winner of the Cheltenham Gold Cup, heads the stellar half-dozen declarations and will be making his seasonal reappearance in the three-mile contest, which will be his first outing since that famous Cheltenham victory in March. The Nicky Henderson-trained six-year-old, who is owned by Robert Waley-Cohen and will be ridden by his son Sam, will also be making his first visit to Haydock Park.

If Long Run is a newcomer to Haydock Park, one Betfair Chase contender who certainly is not is Kauto Star. The 11-year-old, a 14-time Grade One winner, will be making his fifth appearance in the Betfair Chase, having won the Grade One race in 2006, 2007 and 2009. Trained by Paul Nicholls for owner Clive Smith, Kauto Star has the assistance of his regular pilot Ruby Walsh, who has a 100 per cent record in the Betfair Chase having ridden Kauto Star to victory in 2006 and 2009.

Weird Al comes into the Betfair Chase with the benefit of a run already this season, having won the Grade Two Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby on October 29, when he proved three and a half lengths too strong for the Paul Webber-trained Time For Rupert, who is also set to line up on Saturday.

Trainer Donald McCain, who took charge of Weird Al at the start of this season revealed today: “Weird Al seems grand since Wetherby. You don't expect to win a Charlie Hall Chase first time out but Ian Williams (the eight-year-old’s former trainer) always thought the world of him, so his victory wasn't the biggest shock in the world.

“He came out of that race fine and, if there was a good time to take on Long Run, it would be first time out.

“Jason Maguire is going down to Ascot to ride Overturn, so Timmy Murphy was the obvious substitute, having won on him at Wetherby.”

Adding further spice to the Betfair Chase is the Nick Williams-trained Diamond Harry.
The eight-year-old has not been since out since winning the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury almost a year ago, but is no stranger to success at Haydock Park, having taken the “Fixed Brush” Handicap Hurdle at this meeting in two years ago as well as the Grade Two Altcar Novices’ Chase in 2010.

Completing the line-up is Pure Faith. The outsider is trained by Peter Bowen, who sent out the 2008 Betfair Chase winner Snoopy Loopy, and comes into the race in good form following his second to Albertas Run in the Grade Two Old Roan Chase at Aintree on October 22.

Betfair spokesman Tony Calvin commented: “This looks the classiest Betfair Chase yet.

“On form, Long Run looks more like a 1/2 shot, than a 10/11 chance. He is rated 14lb clear by Timeform and could still be improving.

“But I suppose the layers can take heart from the fact that he is unlikely to be fully tuned up ay Haydock, meets a legend in Kauto Star, as well as unexposed and already high-class horses in Diamond Harry, Weird Al and Time For Rupert.

“So in that respect Long Run looks an ideal “Betfair” horse for our race in that the backers and layers are sure to lock horns, probably around the even money mark come Saturday.”

To win the Betfair Chase – the sponsors bet: 10/11 Long Run, 11/2 Diamond Harry, 13/2 Kauto Star, 7/1 Weird Al, 9/1 Time For Rupert, 99/1 Pure Faith.

TIMEFORM ADJUSTED RATINGS

LONG RUN (FR) - 196
WEIRD AL (IRE) - 182
KAUTO STAR (FR) - 182
DIAMOND HARRY - 179
TIME FOR RUPERT (IRE) - 176
NACARAT (FR) - 175
PURE FAITH (IRE) - 147​
 
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