Man City: Have a decent run in. A lot of games against the bottom half and their two games in the top 6 are against teams with dreadful records in the top 6. If you are fair you can't see them dropping more than a couple of points. +22 Points = 98.
Liverpool: Almost as good a run in as City, but not quite and they have played an extra game. They have a lot of draws in the top half particularly away from home. Let's be generous and say they wont lose but just draw two more. +17 points = 93.
Spurs: Have been very good against everyone outside the top 6. They are very likely to lose both their away games to Liverpool and City, but it would be fair to say that they could easily win all their other games. To be consistent, let's give them one draw. +16 points = 77.
Arsenal: No games left against the top 4, but 5 away games. It seems safe to predict home wins against Newcastle, Crystal Palace and Brighton, and an away win against Burnley. Of the remaining 4 away games let's pessimistically say we lose 1, win 1, and draw 2. +17 points = 77.
Manchester United: Should win against Cardiff and Huddersfield. That leaves 2 tricky away games against Wolves and Everton. And 4 tricky home games against the top half. Given their existing record against the top half, let's give them a generous 3 wins, 2 ties and a loss. +17 points = 75.
Chelsea: Should win games against Brighton, Burnley and Cardiff, but given their record against the top half teams, they will be lucky to get more than 4 points from their other games. +13 points = 70
So my Prediction: Man City winners.
Liverpool Runners up
Arsenal, Spurs in the top 4, and a toss up whether we will have St Totteringham's day this year, but I'd give us the edge at this point, given that we have a little more chance to improve our points total and Spurs really don't without getting points at Liverpool and City or being otherwise perfect.
Liverpool: Almost as good a run in as City, but not quite and they have played an extra game. They have a lot of draws in the top half particularly away from home. Let's be generous and say they wont lose but just draw two more. +17 points = 93.
Spurs: Have been very good against everyone outside the top 6. They are very likely to lose both their away games to Liverpool and City, but it would be fair to say that they could easily win all their other games. To be consistent, let's give them one draw. +16 points = 77.
Arsenal: No games left against the top 4, but 5 away games. It seems safe to predict home wins against Newcastle, Crystal Palace and Brighton, and an away win against Burnley. Of the remaining 4 away games let's pessimistically say we lose 1, win 1, and draw 2. +17 points = 77.
Manchester United: Should win against Cardiff and Huddersfield. That leaves 2 tricky away games against Wolves and Everton. And 4 tricky home games against the top half. Given their existing record against the top half, let's give them a generous 3 wins, 2 ties and a loss. +17 points = 75.
Chelsea: Should win games against Brighton, Burnley and Cardiff, but given their record against the top half teams, they will be lucky to get more than 4 points from their other games. +13 points = 70
So my Prediction: Man City winners.
Liverpool Runners up
Arsenal, Spurs in the top 4, and a toss up whether we will have St Totteringham's day this year, but I'd give us the edge at this point, given that we have a little more chance to improve our points total and Spurs really don't without getting points at Liverpool and City or being otherwise perfect.
