Raising Sand is a best priced 5/1 for this competitive handicap, a race won last season by the upwardly mobile Lord Glitters. Trainer Jamie Osborne is in grand form but I don't like skinny odds in big field Handicaps. Raising Sand won his most recent start and has run plenty of times at Ascot and running very well on several occasions. On the down side he is higher in the weights now and he has run poorly on several occasions, which you don't really like to see at a price where there is little wriggle room. As an alternative I opted for Ripp Orf at 12/1. He has finished in front of Raising Sand on two occasions where he was well in against the Osborne runner before the 6YO Raising Sand got the better of him by 2 lengths last time off levels over 7F. The gap between them has largely been consistent as the weights carried became closer together but with Mosse replacing the 3 lb claimer on the Elsworth horse now and being a couple of lbs better in, I felt the very consistent Ripp Orf was better value at more than twice the odds. Ripp Orf has been very busy this season with fifteen starts but he never raced as a 3YO and after three races as a 2YO he began life rated 73 before improving to 97 and he ran well last time when second to the race favourite for Saturday's contest. I reckon Ripp Off should squeeze into the 20 runner field and it's money back if he is ballotted out. The race odds should be trimmed somewhat once field and draw are known and I would rather have a few quid at better odds in a tricky race than go gung ho on a horse who may line up at 3/1 or similar. In 18 races Ripp Orf has never been worse than 4th apart from one poor run at Epsom. You can normally forgive a horse for a poor effort at the Derby track and his formline is extremely consistent and showing no signs of letting up after a good 2nd on his 15th start this year. A few interesting contenders with too many to cover in depth ,and it's a race where you could pick half a dozen and not hit the board, never mind the bullseye but I feel a consistent improver is a good one to be with. Ripp Orf 12/1 for me here. Good luck to all intrepid players.
Ripp Orf didn't get in, his rating was 1 lb short of making the cut. No harm done though and I'll keep an eye out for him running elsewhere. These big Handicaps are getting that you need to be nearly 100 rated to get in. The top weight, Flaming Spear, is rated 110 and gone are the days of horses carrying less than 8 stone at the bottom of the field. I'll have a rethink. Kynren is in at number 18 on the card. He seems an each-way shout but I feel 9/1 is skinny for each way and I'd like to have seen him win a race this season. My biggest concern with him is that his worst ever run was the time he ran at Ascot before.
Ripp Orf was ballotted out because of the maximum field size restriction. You get your money back in these instances. If a horse is a non-runner for other reasons ante-post you lose your money but when the horse is in the 5 day declarations and doesn't make the field it is a money back situation.
That’s a shame I really fancied him. At least you got your money back. I felt he would have been in the mix Floridaspearl. I like to get a price on one once the 5 day decs are in because once the field is formed the odds are generally trimmed and if you are ballotted out there is no harm done. With general ante-post bets I try to get at least 20/1, so that you don't need to put much on for a decent return, that way if the horse doesn't run you have only lost a small stake. Sometimes they do make the race and go off short but simply don't win and that is frustrating. I had Saxon Warrior at 33/1 for Epsom Derby butit just wasn't to be, despite him seeming to be very much the horse to beat. I can't think of many Guineas winners who were unbeaten at a mile and then retired without winning again and having a 4 win 5 loss record. That wasn't the finest hour for Coolmore with Saxon Warrior.
