Could be interesting if Adayar goes full throttle half a mile out. I think that is his only chance. But if Baaeed goes with him and Crowley has a double handful a furlong out, it's all over. If it weren't for Adayar taking part, the race would be a waste of time from a fan's point of view, other than to see by how far or how easy he wins. Can't see this race doing his rating any good at all. A great shame that there isn't a star-studded field for his finale
What I expect to happen on Saturday would probably be a repeat of the Juddmonte at York. On that occasion High Definition was effectively a pacemaker (finished tailed off last). Baaeed will be held up, use his turn of foot to go for home with a furlong or so to go. So if Adayar (or any of the others) wants to win, they need to go for home first and establish a big enough lead that they cannot be overhauled. If there is no pace then this could turn into a sprint. Clearly none of them should be good enough to get involved in a sprint to the line with the unbeaten Haggas horse. The only way I can realistically see Baaeed being beaten is if there is something amiss. Whether he puts in a record setting performance is also probably down to Crowley. It seems unlikely that the ground will be fast so the only way that the time will be quick is if somebody goes off hard at the front in an effort to make it more of a test of stamina than the York race. Will Crowley ride him out to the line if he has a lead of a few lengths? I think not. Surely most of the Forum will be watching the slow old plodders at Market Rasen and Stratford anyway.
One (High Definition) has dropped out so a final field of 9 have been declared for Saturday's Champion Stakes. Very little change to the betting sine last mentioned earlier in the week. For me Bay Bridge would be the one to follow Baaeed home and therefore the forecast selection. His win at Sandown Park, in May, was extremely noteworthy and think he's the only one of Baaeed's opponents capable of showing a significant amount of improvement. Also, re Adayar, I do fear for him over this distance and feel that he is so, so much better over 12 furlongs.
I think My Prospero is the EW and forecast bet in this race. He's done very little wrong this year. He seems to handle any going and has improved with every run. Baeed will win but this boy will make him go.
I thought Adayar was going to win as soon as the jockey followed my instructions to the T. Didn't count on Bay Bridge spoiling the party. Well done Barney.
A friend of mine is an ex-Stoute employee. She keeps in touch with a few people in the yard and said she’s been told that many in the yard think Bay Bridge is a better horse than Desert Crown, though at this stage he needs the right ground. Why she didn’t tell me this BEFORE Saturday I’ll never know!
Possibly, I thought he made a race winning move coming round the bend but it wasn’t to be. They’re considering Breeders Cup for him now, though it could be a tight turnaround considering he didn’t appreciate the small gap last year between the Arc and Champion Stakes.
I'm not sure what that says about Desert Crown. Is he not the super horse he was hyped up to be?. I see Bay Bridge has been put in at 20s (backed into 16s) for the Arc, but I wouldn't be interested given what we know at present. Adayar had a poor prep for the race and Baaeed just didn't have the speed on the ground and ran well below his best. Interestingly the winner averaged 12.946 secs per furlong over 10f but, two races earlier, Emily Upjohn averaged 12.81 secs per furlong over 12f. I think I would prefer the filly over 12f of the Arc. She isn't on my short list for the Arc but maybe she should be
I see that after the Champion Stakes the official handicapper has left Baaeed on 135. Bay Bridge climbs 2 lbs to 122 but Adayar dropped 5 lbs to that same mark (122).
