Automatic promotion not possible

Gills79

Gills79

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Apr 1, 2011
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With 20 games to go the Gills sit 11 points behind the three teams in the automatic promotion places. To overcome this difference Gills need to secure 4 more wins than each of these teams.
Even if Gills only lose three games and win all the others we will still need the top three teams to lose 7 of their last 20 games. That's hardly going to happen and there's still all the teams occupying the play off places to contend with.
 
Agreed. Automatic Promotion? No chance. Playoffs? If we work hard and Hessy brings in at least 2 new defenders, then yes, if not, we wont get there either
 
Ah my favourite topic, points and automatic promotion, well you've come to the right place for the stats - lol

I forecast us pre season to achieve 76 points this season (that is only a play off place). That should give us fifth place going by previous seasons (I have got the numbers). However, due to the last two games we are four points behind my plan.

Now to achieve autos you need to be looking at 80 points for roughly third place. We currently have 41 points from 26 games.

So here goes...
Last five away games we have achieved 1.40 ppg
Last five home games we have achieved 2.00 ppg
Average for the whole season 26 games 1.57 ppg

20 games remaining x 1.57 = 72.4 TOTAL = roughly 6th place
or
11 x home 2.00 = 22 points + 9 x away 1.40 = 12.6 + 22 = 34.6 + 41 = 75.6 TOTAL = 5th place

As you can see from the above examples, nothing touches the auto places in those figures. Bear in mind with the exception of August, therefore Sep, Oct, Nov, Dec we only picked up seven points per month and to make things worse for January we can only achieve a maximum of six (although partly due to Rotherham being postponed).

So play those stats what ever way you like but what is Hessy going to do different in the last 20 games to pick up an additional six points above everything that we have already been doing this season. Possible but also remember the more points the top three pick up, the more difficult within an increased points requirement the task becomes.

Although if you like things to be kept simple, yes win 13 games out of 20 and you will be there or thereabouts for the autos.
 
Blimey brb thats some set of calculations!

Just one point though. You say that 80 points should secure automatic promotion but the top three have 52 points already. Surely all three of those teams will be picking up 28 points from the last 20games?
 
Gills79 said:
Blimey brb thats some set of calculations!

Just one point though. You say that 80 points should secure automatic promotion but the top three have 52 points already. Surely all three of those teams will be picking up 28 points from the last 20games?
Click to expand...

Really tricky that one, I have not done any set of calculations for average run in for the current top three at this point in the season. A lot more complicated than it may seem.

I recently done figures for the half way point of the season and where we were in relation to that, however, again you have to bear in mind that does not mean at the half way stage that those same top three teams were promoted.

I can give you a complete set of calculations for every league two top seven positions since the current league came in to being, however, I can not tell you what position those promoted teams occupied at this point in the season.

Just note though that each one of those teams can still lose points to us and visa versa and against each other, so it is not a straight in the bag 28 points, along with relegation threatened teams fighting for their survival. What I need to check is the difference in this seasons points total compared to others at this stage. Again difficult ensuring you have the same game tally (postponements etc).

I can do it but it will take time.


Final Auto and Play-Off point totals since 2004-05
HTML: 
2010-11	.	2009-10	.	2008-09	.	2007-08	.	2006-07	.	2005-06	.	2004-05
86	.	93	.	85	.	97	.	89	.	86	.	83
81	.	83	.	79	.	92	.	88	.	83	.	80
80	.	82	.	78	.	88	.	85	.	81	.	80
79	.	73	.	78	.	82	.	84	.	78	.	78
73	.	73	.	75	.	80	.	74	.	72	.	75
69	.	72	.	70	.	78	.	72	.	71	.	72
68	.	72	.	69	.	78	.	71	.	66	.	72

Please note the 2007-08 season you needed 88 points to get promoted.

ps. I should finish by adding 80 points guarantees you nothing, that is probably the very least you will need to be achieving. Potentially with an average of 2.00 ppg the top three could end up on 92 points, although I would guess very unlikely, with maybe at least one of them slipping away.
 
brb -Completely agree with your comments about teams taking points from each other and the relegation dogfight factor. It will be interesting to see if 80 points will be enough this year.
 
You cannot argue with stats although an optimist would point out that Gills have played 2 more games away than at home and most of the top teams have still to visit Priestfield. Leaving aside the stats I feel Swindon are unstoppable and Crawley are on the slide so I reckon Swindon/Cheltenham/Southend are looking good but the last two will be relegated next season (whereas I think Gills squad would be good enough to stay up).
 
20 games to play @ 3 points a game that's 60 points + 41 points = 101 points.

simples :emoticon-0157-sun:
 
Lies, damn lies and statistic.

Life doesm't follow mathematical logarisms... who knows what will happen
 
To be honest which ever way you calculate it I feel there are at least 5 stronger more consistent teams than us fighting for the autos,(Swindon,Cheltenham,Southend,Crawley and Shrewsbury) This also raises doubts for me that if we make the play off's we will even get to the final, I know anything can happen and any of the teams I have mentioned could fall away but then teams like Torquay and Oxford are in the wings to follow up. for me following Saturday's collapse the little chance I felt we had of reaching the autos has gone, I so hope to be proved wrong.


UTG!!
 
To me it is obvious (and has been for some time) that we can't make the autos. Nowhere near consistent enough or solid enough defensively.

Play-offs... maybe if we sign one or two sound defenders. And then if we do make the play-offs, as we know anything can happen.

However, this pessimistic predictor predicts another frustrating 8th placed finish :-(


P.S. BSG I think you meant mathematical "algorithms"
 
i dont think we even need to look at the stats, just look at the performances over the last 18 months. Automatic no chance. however, we will probably scrape into the play offs even with a few more poor performances along the way.
 
Gills79 said:
Blimey brb thats some set of calculations!

Just one point though. You say that 80 points should secure automatic promotion but the top three have 52 points already. Surely all three of those teams will be picking up 28 points from the last 20games?
Click to expand...

Been looking at the stats again, previous seasons show that two of the current top three at this stage tend to go up.

Hopefully the attached below is viewable on most pc's:

You must log in or register to see images


Unseen dates may differ by several weeks in the above example, I tried to get it to the nearest game ratio for all three teams.
 
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