Assessing Form

[NamNed]

Afternoon chaps,

I'm really sorry if this doesn't make sense, my poor way of explaining is probably to blame.

Just looking through a bit of form for the Derby and wondered how a horses rating ties in with the weight they receive/give away and the lengths they win/are beaten by. For example/arguements sake:

A horse rated 95, in his last race was beaten 1 length giving away 5lbs to a horse rated 88. How could I assess that form? I.e how many pounds does the handicapper re-assess for distance? Is it 1lb per length?

If someone could try to decipher what I mean and help me out, I'd be most grateful.

Cheers

Nam

 

[DanishPastry]

I'm not 100% certain of the exact numbers, but I can confirm that it definitely isn't 1lb = 1length - it varies depending on distance. I think that for races over a mile, 1 length is roughly 2lbs.

So I think that that works out roughly as follows:

88 rated horse gets 5lb => relative difference is down to -2lb. This implies that he should have lost by a length. As he infact won by a length, then 4lb worth of difference should be made (assuming the assessment is that both horses ran a true race etc), either bringing the lower horse up to 92, dropping the higher horse down to 91, or pushing them both inwards to 93 and 90. Which one of the three they do is, I think, based on the general impression of how the rest of the field ran in comparison - one of the numbers may look the more likely result.

 

[NassauBoard]

http://www.britishhorseracing.com/inside_horseracing/about/whatwedo/handicapping.asp

 

[woolcombe-folly007]

Form is tempory, Class is permanent!

 

[Cyclonic]

I've traded on arse when it comes to the punt Wooly. I believe it to be permanent too.

 

[Ron]

According to the publishers, a Timeform rating represents "the merit of the horse expressed in pounds and is arrived at by careful examination of its running against other horses using a scale of weight for distance beaten which ranges from around 3 lb a length at five furlongs and 2 lb a length at a mile and a quarter to 1 lb a length at two miles".

As Danish says, the problem is then trying to assess whether all the horses in the race ran above or below form.

 

[Ron]

Thanks for that link directly into handicapping Nass. The link for that site is in the Forum Index but when I typed "handicapping" in the search box it didn't come up with that. It's under "What we do". Nice site but not the most brilliant searching given the whole page, and the link from "What we do", is actually "Handicapping".

 

[NamNed]

Right chaps, in light of my new handicapping knowledge I have one for you today:

Knight Vision (D Nicholls) 18/1 - 1.45 Notts

This horse started off at Windsor over 6F on G/S ground and ran Rebellious Guest (off levels) to a 5 length 3rd. Rebellious Guest is now rated 99. If I take a 5 length defeat to be the equivalent of 15 lbs then Knight Vision ran to a mark of roughly 84. On his next start he was at Ripon again over 6F and again on G/S ground. He ran Overpowered (off levels) to a 3 length 3rd. Overpowered is now rated 94 so if we say that 3 lengths is the equivalent to 9 lbs then he again ran to a mark of about 84/85. He was then off the track until this April when he ran a stinker in all honesty, and finished way back in a average maiden after starting the 4/5 fav.

If I forgive the last run (as him needing it badly) and Nicholls usually needing at least one run, that would make his opening mark of 69 hugely lenient, and is about 15 lbs lower than I think he should be. Now were taking a chance on Dandy's horse being 'appropriately prepped' for this, as he has been known to do the odd under-handed run now and again - but I reckon he's worth a punt. Ground is G/F today, but I don't think that will matter too much being by Haaffd.