Cheltenham in August!!...why not I suppose..early bird,worm etc. For me the CH and GC are safe in the custody of the holders. Master Minded,as I have long contended,is/was vastly overerated.How anyone could attribute a rating of 186 for his initial CC success is frankly beyond comprehension. To be fair,Phil Smith,the guy who has changed the GN into a limited h'cap with little success,concedes it was his first attempt at calibrating a G1 chase.Interestingly MM only gleaned a mark of 172 for his last blooodless win at Liverpool...reality bites,thankfully He can always be taken on against top class G1 horses,or even the likes of Big Zeb. Impossible to predict how novice hurdlers will adapt to fences,ergo impossible imo to even consider predicting the novice chase winners at the Festival...Peddlers Cross is easily opposed as far as I'm concerned.The Tizzard beast has already left my consciousness and won't factor in anything significant. The novices from last year who interest me are Oscars Well,from the excellent Jessica Harrington's yard,FL and So Young who was over the top when blowing out in his final outing. They all contested the best novice event of the Festival and will be of interest when returning over timber or fences. Good piece Tam...I love the dark nights and look forward to winter racing.
champion chase: I know it's early but it's looking dire at this stage. barring sizing europe and the dubious inclusion of.captain chris (and the obvious great record of arkle winners in the race) what is there in this race to shout about? laat seasons arkle was rubbish, master minded is now a 2 & 1/2 mile chaser, golden silver doesn't like cheltenham that much, big zeb and captain cee bee are old. have I left anything out? We know sizing europe will be campaigned for this race and loves cheltenham. I think it's a shoot out between sizing and Captain Chris if the latter named goes this route. Personally I think 9/2 and 8/1 are decent prices but I also think Captain Chris will shorten whist Sizing will drift out as he suffers the odd defeat in Ireland. The bet in my eyes is a Captain Chris win at 8's and take the larger prices about Sizing as the season progresses.
I'm quite excited for the jumps to start up again. Denman, IC, and KS are probably going to be to old to be considered genuine Gold Cup contenders. I fancy KS won't even make it to Cheltenham, they will most likely do the right thing and let him bow out in the KG, where I hope he can run a big race, possibly filling the places. I think realistically it would be a huge ask for KS at 11 to reverse form with the 6yo Long Run. I wouldn't rule out IC getting a G1 win in the betfair Chase, providing LR doesn't show up. IC goes so well fresh that you could fancy him on seasonal debut. Not sure how Denman will start off the season, a Hennessy at 11yo off 182 could finish his career off. He is such a battler when he's in the mood, that he could end up running himself into the ground trying to overcome an impossible task. I fancy he may end his career in the Gold Cup providing all is well, can't see how he could be a contender at 12, but I wouldn't say it's impossible for him to fill the places. Long Run is going to take some knocking off his perch, and I just don't see how he can be, if I had to pick one certainty at the festival now, he would be the one, even more so than Quevega, BB and HF. People seem to mention Quito De La Roque, Time For Rupert, Captain Chris etc but the best Novice chaser from last season was Noble Prince. Look how he beat Wishful Thinking in the Jewson, and he was galloping all over Realt Dubh when he made a mistake in the Powers Gold Cup
Really hoping Mossey Joe gets there, but don't know where he'd race. Was going to go to the RSA but unfortunately due to a rule change he is ineligible.
Great to see soooo many of us NH 'lovers' already getting excited about the Festival, with still 7 months to go
If we see a very talented 2m novice chaser emerge I guess it is entirely possible that connections might fancy a tilt at the QMCC, given how weak it looks on paper. Anyone know if that event has ever been won by a novice?
Peddlers was confirmed as heading down the Arkle route yesterday and whilst there are some very nice recruits I think he'll be hard to beat if he takes to fences. Good question OddDog - I can't remember one. Horse I'll be looking out for is Wayward Prince. This horse showed good form before finishing 3rd in the RSA where he came up the hill unbelievable quick, I think he could need further but the stiffer pace of a Gold Cup would play to his stamina and he is a live outsider for the blue riband for me. I have to say that watching the race at the time it was a performance that screamed 'Grand National' at me and this may still be the case, but I wouldn't dismiss his Gold Cup chances just yet and he must be a big (ish) price for the race.
Re a top notch novice going for the Champion Chase rather than the Arkle I would have thought it most unlikely as you get more for winning the novice race than placing (even 2nd) in the Champion Chase. Unless connections were very confident, or even brave, I doubt if it would happen. Which in some ways is a pity. I too am greatly looking forward to the old NH season stepping up a gear and can't remember looking forward to a new term with so many hopes and positive expectations. Including the legendary Tataniano in the Champion Chase, Spirit Son in the Champion Hurdle, Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle, Mossley in the RSA, Long Run in the CGC and, of course, 'the hope of the county' Montbazon in the Supreme Novices. One way or another it promises to be quite a campaign, methinks...
Nice write up tam! Cant wait for the jump season to start and see how the likes of Noble prince, captain chris etc.. have all progressed. Also looking forward to Weapons Amnesty coming back after missing last season! Shergs I do have to agree with you Long Run is more of a certainy than any other horse in the festival, and my money shall be on him once again! Already ordered my tickets for the thurs and fri!! I cant wait (hopefully will have another 25/1 winner- like I did last year good old Buena Vista did retaining his crown in the Pertemps!) But I just cant wait!
