Argento - Rocky Creek

[Benvenuto Cellini]

Was going to take 3/1 today but it was gone very early and I missed it.

Backed this horse in the Hennessy and he jumped brilliantly, form of the race is working out and he appears to hold a good chunk of this potential field on that run. Paul Nicholls said before the race he was only worried about the goodish ground, the Hennessy was run in a fast time and he will surely get the softer ground at Cheltenham on Saturday. Triolo Dalene was pulled because of soft ground last time and if they get any more rain here he might not even run, he was impressive at Newbury but is 4 or 5 pounds worse off, with the ground in favour of the other horse and the other horse has now had a run.

I dont think Rocky is a jailcase to beat Triolo despite all this as he is an improving horse and clearly pretty high class with speed and stamina but I think he is the most likely winner in the conditions.

Question is, is Rocky Creek worth risking just now at 5/2 antepost. He is if Triolo is a non runner of course, but if that one runs, is he going to be much shorter than 9/4 on the day?

 

[OddDog]

5lbs pull in the weights and plenty more juice in the ground ought to swing things Rocky Creek's way Boris. 5/2 is pretty skinny though.

I was then going to be clever and point out that Trio D'Alene has never won at Cheltenham, until I realised that neither has Rocky Creek

I'd have Time For Rupert in for an e/w squeak if he runs - currently 16/1

 

[Benvenuto Cellini]

They say Rupert wants nice spring ground Oddy, im thinking Champion Court might not run as its a bit soon, Unioniste is going to Doncaster so race might cut up a little bit.

Just dont know whether its worth taking a chance for a pretty decent bet just now at 5/2, if Triolo is pulled he could end up 6/4 on the day, if he isnt then I could probably get at least 2/1 NRNB

 

[Bostonbob]

I've no strong opinion on the race sorry Boris. From what I think of Rocky Creek I wouldn't want to lay 9/4 so 5/2 is a good price. I wouldn't expect improvement though. He was aimed at his seasonal debut for 2 years wasn't he? He'd have been 100%

 

[Benvenuto Cellini]

I know, Nicholls said he had him as fit as he could get him, but nothing like a run, he should have come on a bit for it, the experience in a race like that as well.

Ive took the plunge anyway so we will see what happens.

 

[Bostonbob]

He most likely doesn't need to improve to win anyway. Harry Topper is interesting if he suddenly learns how to jump but it's long odds on he'll throw in a couple of shockers as per usual. I'm personally surprised connections haven't entered Meadowcroft Boy for his debut chase. That horse is going places.

 

[NassauBoard]

He most likely doesn't need to improve to win anyway. Harry Topper is interesting if he suddenly learns how to jump but it's long odds on he'll throw in a couple of shockers as per usual. I'm personally surprised connections haven't entered Meadowcroft Boy for his debut chase. That horse is going places.

Leaving him for debut in the Gold Cup.

Every horse is allowed one bad run old boy.

 

[Sir Barney Chuckles]

A word of warning to favourite backers is that no fave has won this heat since 1999! Also no second choice in the market has gone in since 2005. This is, I think, because for the very best horses this race is no more than a prep, a trial, their hors d'oeuvre for the main event in March. Maybe, we need to look out for something going 100% for this rather than using it as a sort of ‘prep’.

Meanwhile re Triolo D’alene his Cheltenham fencing record is dire. It reads -0P. In contrast everywhere else for Mr Henderson he either won or been placed 7 times out of 8. People, I’d never accuse Mr Henderson of impropriety as he’s purer than the driven snow and is the most honest gentleman in our sport but you do wonder if he really wants a great run from this one prior to the Grand National weights being announced. Triolo is currently on 158 and a win on Saturday could sent this perch stratospheric and in the process totally rule him out of Aintree. A ‘lesser’ performance could see this mark fall somewhat. Nudge, nudge, wink, wink, say no more...

 

[Ron]

A word of warning to favourite backers is that no fave has won this heat since 1999! Also no second choice in the market has gone in since 2005. This is, I think, because for the very best horses this race is no more than a prep, a trial, their hors d'oeuvre for the main event in March. Maybe, we need to look out for something going 100% for this rather than using it as a sort of ‘prep’.

I would imagine that if a sufficient number of people believed those stats to be relevant, they would be plunging on the 3rd fav and that would become fav and that would be doomed. Maybe it's the other pointer you mention Barney that is more relevant ie
"This is, I think, because for the very best horses this race is no more than a prep, a trial, their hors d'oeuvre for the main event in March. Maybe, we need to look out for something going 100% for this rather than using it as a sort of ‘prep’."