APPRAISE Monday 19th December 1.00 Plumpton SPEAR THISTLE 2.0 pts win 7/2 BOG 1.30 Plumpton OHIO GOLD 4.0 pts win Evens BOG Good Luck Today Tomorrows another day!
Bloody hell Ardent. Not only a 5/1 winner but it beat the 4/1 on fav. How exciting was that? Whatever your system is, it's certainly working. Well done and best of luck when you market it.
Thanks Ron we are having a nice spell....not getting ahead of myself though this is a long bumpy road..... A good day for APPRAISE today all the same⦠We had SPEAR THISTLE a good few points in front of Cucumber Run there was no way this horse was a 1/4 chance his jumping was extremely suspect in the early stages of his previous race and proved to be today also. I marked them up last night at around 4/6 and 9/4. It was an easy decision to take on the favourite at 7/2 and the eventual silly price of 5/1 was massive. OHIO GOLD was a standout for me and EVENS as I alluded to on the main daily thread this morning was far too big. Won in a canter! Shaping like a decent type actually may be worth following. Reminder to all stake carefully to enhance your margins, the points system is for rule of thumb to prove the system. The stats so far December +38.61pts Overall since November +49.12pts Tomorrows another day.
This is really top top stuff Ardent. This needs to go global. Can I ask how much work it requires you to do each day? Do you have to fill in the data and do the maths for each race every day or is the whole thing pretty much computerized? If it's top secret stuff I understand!! I look forward to the day a couple of years down the line when I, like millions of others, login to my APPRAISE account to see the system has tipped the horse owned by Ron to win the Champion Hurdle....
GGW without going in to too much detail..its tough and time consuming about 4 hours a day normally....this will be a challenge though BOXING DAY!!!!! (NH) Wetherby | (NH) Huntingdon | (NH) Ffos Las | (NH) Market Rasen | (NH) Fontwell Park | (NH) Towcester | (NH) Kempton Park | (F) Wolverhampton AW | (NH) Wincanton What you dont see is every horse is rated every day. Before i get to next days racing i review all races of the day against APPRAISE rating this allows me to see how horses that were not selected performed in relation to how i rated them. Mentally this is tough and there is a requirement to emotionally detach yourself from seeing top rated APPRAISE horses winning that you didnt select as an investment on that day. This is the re-education and constant review required. I cant emphasise enough taking the emotion out of the process, doesnt mean you cant shout a winner home though! So before i get to the next days cards there is already 2hrs review i'm looking at another 2hrs to establish the next days selections.... I think though i have proved nothing yet there is a long long way to go.....
That's what I call dedication Ardent. Does that mean you have (or will have) a data base of all horses in training? Obviously you can use this site for proofing your selections but it may be worth checking out if there is anything else you can do to ensure you can advertise legally and profitably.
Thanks Ron, Youll understand i cant give away too much. I also think we are getting a bit ahead of ourselves as i said in the last post i've proved nothing yet.... What i will say is that ratings are devised in the context of the race!
I wouldn't expect you to give anything away Ardent. I wouldn't say it was getting ahead of ourselves though. Merely checking out the options in case you do decide to proceed. It would be a shame if you decided to go ahead only to discover that you would have been better placed to launch had you done something earlier. Forward planning.
I find this really fascinating Ardent and it's not that it's shown profit more the level of profit that is really impressive over such a short time period. An interesting point regarding the emotional detachment there. It must be frustrating when you haven't backed a winner that's come up via the system. That is a great opportunity to refine and tweak the model however. If not, be grateful that horses of equal APPRAISE strength that haven't won that day were weeded out by the system!! It's amazing how much time it takes but keep finding the winners and you can pay someone to do it for you !! I will continue to follow with interest
Thanks for all the good wishes and advice all appreciated. APPRAISE 20/12/2011 2.55 Musselburgh Red Tanber 2 pts win 7/2 BOG 4.15 Kempton Perfect Act 2pts win 9/4 BOG Good luck
Really well done Ardent, you very easily could have had two today as Perfect act looked to be heading to a cosy win a furlong out. I am even more impressed now i know you put in such time (4 hours). The last time i had a go at trying to find a system that would take opinion out of the equation it was simply to look for any horse that had come 2nd or 3rd last time out beaten a length or under (flat) that was competing in the same or lower grade. It was not too sophisticated as can see but did always come up with a reasonable amount of success. Long may your system continue to keep you in profit Ardent. It's not easily done so any time you finish a month ahead deserves a lot of credit.
Ardent - fantastic. I'm sooooooooo tempted to start backing your selections on a daily basis but I know my money would be the kiss of death
Me to Oddy, but that's Ardent's retirement planning we would be ruining. I can't have that on my conscience.
This is all a bit mind blowing to me Ard. Wonderful stuff. The number of hours you put in on a daily basis says a lot about you're faith in your ideas. And of course the results speak for themselves.
