Good to have you back GDC. Im totally with Griz and Oddy. Looks like a cracking double to me and if they both stay fit cant see anything getting near either of them. Cant understand the prices to be honest, for once i think a tad generous from those nasty bookies!
Solwhit's probably swerving the festival again. Don't take that as gospel but seems highly likely given the drift and previous trainer form. The more I look at Boston Bob the more I think he's going to be a massive Cheltenham plunge horse this year. The form of that grade one he won before Christmas couldn't be stronger and we've yet to see Mount Benbulben run. Boston Bob is my banker for the festival. Hopefully Willie will send him to the Neptune and not the crappy Albert Bartlett. He's got the kick to destroy the Neptune field and the stamina to race just off the pace. 12/1 is a gift from God. I'm not a believer but the longer that price is available the more it's making me reconsider my belief system.
4/7 about Big Bucks is not generous. I will stake my life on him being there or thereabouts the morning of that race. The bookies will take him on expecially if they've had a good few days leading up to then. Quevega at 6/4 however, is another matter altogether.
Im not so sure about boston bob, i get the feeling that he may get done for tactical speed in the neptune. Willie mullins is starting to annoy me a bit to be hoenst he has so many novices most of which seem to be the staying type i wish he would come out and state some intended targets for them. Id be intererested to know what the pecking order is in the yard considering he also has make your mark and sous les cieux.
Quel, fair point on Big Bucks (although sporting bet are standout 8/13 and betfair 5/7 - market is suspended though for some reason??). If you read back through the thread i was more on about Quevega and question why Paddy Power were out on a limb at 6/4 but since Will Hill have gone 6/4 as well.
that's interesting Swifty. so you didn't rate his kick the last day? I'd say he was all tactical speed and stamina.I was really impressed by the way he took a few lengths out of the field. The subsequent performances of Ipsos Du Berlais and Jetson and Mount Benbulbens run the day before are really high quality. I think if he was with Nicholls he'd be 6's. I liked Willie's SLC when he won the graded race but need an explanation as to what happened last time out.
Swifty ~ agree about the number of novice stayers he has but the operation is always looking for a Gold Cup horse so he needs that production line of juveniles. I don't rate any of his novice chasers mind. Sir Des Champs is stuck for a trip. Raptor gets another run out at the weekend so we'll see how's good he is. Am I missing one out?
Valid points Quel. But I look at the book for this race and the next 8 in the betting are Oscar Whisky, Thousand Stars, Voler La Vadette, Peddlers Cross, So Young, Oscars Well, Quevega and Bobs Worth. Oscar Whisky - has stamina doubts and 50/50 to run in this Thousand Stars - probably Champion hurdle bound Voler La Vadette - unlikely to make Cheltenham Peddlers Cross - half a dozen races this one will line up for before this race So Young - favours the Champion hurdle and appears to need cut, failed twice on only 2 runs on ground quicker than soft. Oscars Well - Champion hurdle bound Quevega - insane why she is even priced up for this race, 100% going for a 4th Mares Bobs Worth - will be fav for the RSA and 999/1 to run in this race By the time the non runners are taken out of the race I think Mourad becomes second fav, so what price does Big Bucks then become ? Of course something might appear as a live runner but whoever that is they'll be facing a horse who is unbeaten in 14 career hurdle starts stretching back to Jan 2009 - I really do think he's bomb proof.....
sos Don. I've backed Quevega for every one of her Mares wins. She's been my biggest ever festival winner the year before last and i'll be steaming into her this year. Totally agree she's standout value at 6/4 and she's the type tnat will shorten. However, I would prefer her to run in the World Hurdle and take on the champ with a 10 lbs pull at the weights. Will never happen but would be brilliant. Atleast then there's intrigue in the World Hurdle and the Mares race where there is currently none.
You've got me wrong Grizzly! Only a mug would think Big Bucks is less than bomb proof at Cheltenham BUT i'm convinced the bookies will try to get him in their book on the day. Cheltenham is a war and the biggest salvo they could fire is to go 4/6 on the morning of the race. I genuinely think he'll be as big if not bigger on the day. Oscar Whiskey will not defect so the price can't shorten considerably.
i was unsure as to whether it was a change of gear or was just simply staying on a lot better than all the other. I think i read somewhere that ruby and mullins had a bit of a tactical dispute regarding how sous les cieux should be ridden. Also i read somewhere that he worked brilliantly in the lead up to the race and mullins wondered whether he had left his race behind on the gallop. I did notice though that on that particular race day every single one of willie mullin's horses ran a stinker.
You could be right, I was looking at 4/7 and thinking his form and the lack of opposition makes this value, when the race cuts up I could only see him being shorter, but as you say come midway through Thursday afternoon they could have had 17 'results' and will happily take him on.
Having said all that I could be well off the mark and if you're happy with the price go for it. He'll win doing handstands. I personally think it's an insult to think Oscar Whiskey is consider a genuine challenger. He's crap in comparison.
I'd say Oscar Whisky is 95% to run in the World Hurdle judging by Hendersons interview. He was adamant "Oscar Whisky cannot win a Champion Hurdle so when you consider prize money, why not take on Big Bucks and if we finish 2nd, though I hope to win of course, then its better than being 3rd or 4th in the Champion Hurdle, as I can't have him any better than that last year" (words to those effect) Really liked the look of Mount Benbulben earlier in the season, but much like Sous Les Cieux, we simply haven't a clue why they were below par so it does create doubts.
If anyone fancies a lil dabble on the champion bumper, wild west is running tomorrow in the newbury bumper has a excellent pedigree and ive heard and read a few good things about the horse. Trading at 30 on betfair might be worth backing before the race tomorrow and then trading out if he wins.
That could be a decent bumper at Newbury swifty, not sure I could stretch to backing a 4yo in a Champion Bumper though but no question there'll be some decent horses come from this race.
One ante-post bet this year so far for me: RyanAir: Rubi Light - 4 points 10/1 Ladbrokes (27/12/11) 8/1 Hills (16/01/12) I think this horse is under rated. Ok it got beat by Synchronised last time out but was over 3 miles and I think better suited to Ryan Air distance. Was in the process of giving Sizing Europe a beating till fell earlier in the season. I will wait to nearer the festival but if the ground looks like coming up soft I will be in again. I also like Sizing Europe to retain his title but I missed the ante-post value on this one. Good luck to all with their bets.
I like the Alan King horse BUT this is a 12.5 furlong bumper so I would be wary of taking the form too literally for Cheltenham
TC: All well mate thanks, will take a good look at your ante post bets later but you have some good looking ones there. Sir Des Champs is also one of my 'exciting' betting prospects, i'll be hammering him once the NRNB offer opens up! I also have a dark one for the World Hurdle, but need the market without Big Bucks to take shape. I've done well here, Cross Kennon at large odds placed and Time for Rupert ran 2nd giving me a nice 16/1 winner in this market. The one I like is from the same yard and i believe they will race him for the place money as they have done recently, also after finishing close to Big Bucks he may well be weighted out of any handicap options and the place money in the World Hurdle is very good!! Five Dream is the horse and I just hope Mr Nicholls runs him in this race. Don: Hope all is well darn South mate and hopefully meet you at Catterick or Wetherby soon with the big galoot they call Brendan
