Says it all to me that a horse that's been beaten twice and whose jumping appears to be have gone to pot is favourite and most likely winner, and like you'll I'll probably be piling in....
Threw another arrow last week: £10 treble Supreme Simonsig 12/1 Neptune Boston Bob 6/1 Albert Bartlett Mount Benbulben 12/1
Just read Hold On Julio won't run in the Grand National trial at Haydock this Saturday. I believe Alan King has his eyes firmly fixed on the Festival Handicap Chase on the Tuesday (know as the JLT Speciality Steeple Chase this year) - we know from last year with Bensalem that he is adept at getting one ready for this race and I'm sure he's got his eye on it again. Anyone think he'll go bigger than 7/1 between now and March 13th? I can see him shortening massively once he is declared (I think 22nd Feb is the decs date)
There's very little value left in the AP books Oddy but I honestly don't see this one drifting. I saw him kick his way through Sandowns fences and still won hard held by 10 lengths - a beast of a performance, reminded me of French Holly. This horse could still be so far ahead of the 'capper he could turn this race into a precession. What Hobbs did with Bensalem last year was give him a 2m spin round one of the PTP tracks (I forget which one but Choc said at a preview evening that it's remowned as the toughest PTP course on the circuit). 7/1 is a fair price because he's either an overhyped horse or a handicap certainty, in which case he sould be evens or 50s. BTW - chalk me up for an On the Fringe ante post..................at 7s ! Got giddy yesterday morning
I'd be much keener on Hold On Julio if he goes straight to Cheltenham. Another run will surely either show that he isn't as good as he has looked or prove that he is and therefore destroy his handicap mark. He's on a fair mark now but wouldn't want to be any higher really.
Win double: Hold On Julio 7/1 (JLT Chase) & Fingal Bay 9/2 (Neptune) I'm sure that's what they'll do Zen - scratch him from Kempton and go straight to Cheltenham. I think King has had that in mind since his last win - his entry in the Skybet at Donny was just a ploy, as was his Haydock and Kempton entries. All roads lead to Cheltenham
Or perhaps he has had the problems and still hasn't fully recovered? Who knows? I am waiting for Mr King to tell us all.
I've a strong feeling now that Tom Segal (Pricewise) is tipping up Simonsig in the morning. Shortned to single figures on Betfair. Someone somewhere knows something- Betfair layers generally know the score. (Hence my Supreme portfolio looking utterly decimated) Just been watching the last two renewals of the Supreme. A wall of horses turn for home going well, some with traffic problems, some not. But both had the same ending- those that respond under pressure and stay strongly usually do better. Watched Sprinter Sacre & Cue Card travel like demons last season, Dunguib the season before. It's a funny old race and there might still be a big price lurking there somewhere. On available evidence, I'm not sure who I think has looked to have that extra kick to the line. Mono Man is one such horse who, had he not hit the final hurdle on debut (and to date his only hurdle start), he would have got away from Colour Squadron (stayed on to the line after losing 3-4 lengths at the last hurdle due to momentum), and for me that would be a very smart hurdle debut. It might be that Simonsig ticks the boxes, because dropping to 2m having been very good over 2 and a half and even 3m in a point, he wont have a problem staying. Can he quicken away though when he swings in on the bridle? The one horse who for me has galloped on really nicely is Tetlami, who I know Oddy really likes. The only concern for me is that I just think it might have one or two very lightly raced nice types just improve past it. But its form is solid, I like its style and how uncomplicated the horse is. Keep a very close eye on Paul Nicholls these next 2 weeks- on paper his hand looks weak for this race but one of those horses will be good, surely? Still think Mullins is missing a trick not running Make Your Mark (surely to christ that horse would love a strongly run 2m around Prestbury Park having hacked along and then thoroughly demolished late on in the mud behind Boston Bob, having looked very smart on fast ground on previous start), and still think Nicky Henderson holds a key to unlock at as many as 2 of the first 5 home.
With the belated return of the queens horse Barber Shop on thursday- He is currently entered in the foxhunters at the festival- currently 20/1- I know its a bit early to tell, but it does look a very big price (i know you will say its not for a horse that has been of the track for like 2 years but surely if he runs well on thursday he will go to the festival and if he come close to the run (again I know he is a 10 yr old now) but comes close to the run that gave him 3rd place in the King George in 2009 against this field Backstage (who is a National Horse,) On The Fringe (who was most disappointing on sunday) and Chapoturgeon (who won his 1st race since 2009) the field doesnt look strong and he definately looks like the classiest horse in the race- (I know I am probably mad thinking of backing a horse who we havent seen for ages, but I am a little bit .) But 1st I know prbly dependant on thursday but would love to see the old boy back at prestbury park
Suprised no one has mentioned Salsify for the Foxhunters. He tanked through Sundays race and looked a cosy winner to me. I know people are presuming On the Fringe wasn't fully wound up but he was beat fair and square for me. Not seen a R post today but presume Prospect Wells is the Pricewise SN pick on the lines of he'll get his ground and ignoring his last run.
Besides Tetlami I have also backed Prospect Wells e/w after his Tolworth defeat. He has had his well publicised breathing op and, assuming we get decent spring ground at the festival, he goes there a fresh horse and 25s is too big IMHO.
Morning chaps, TopClass - I think you could be right re Nicholls, not necessarily for the Supreme but the Triumph. Dodging Bullets is very well regarded at home, showing some very good work recently and holds and entry in the race. I think Paul wants to get a run into him first, so we may see him out in the next week (possibly Newbury) - and then onto the Triumph. Currently BP 40/1. May be worth an e/w punt. Of course he still has Dildar and Hinterland, but should DB make a course appearance and win well, that price could tumble. Nam
Good news today: I'VE MANAGED TO BOOK THE FESTIVAL OFF WORK! The bad news: i haven't got a ****ing runner in the Supreme Novice by the looks of things!!
