Big Zeb has been cut today into best price 4s, 7/2 general. Since 1978 only Moscow Flyer has won the race as an 11 year old and he really was a special horse, would I put Big Zeb in the same league, probably not
Agree with that 100%. The concern for me with him is the manner in which he has been beating what has been put in front of him. He has made harder work of it than I would expect if he is a genuine Champion Chase contender. As such I think 4/1 is an appalling price on this season's form. I see no reason why he should reverse the form of last season's running, and actually expect the gap to widen.
Hopefully you will be right! as im sure like others on here, will get a nice little return! But you never know with racing anything can happen, a loose horse gets in your way and boom the jockeys off! or as a few weeks or month back (cant remeber where it was) horse looked destined to win and then the loose horse got in his way just before the finishing line and got pipped on the line!
Morning all. Spent yesterday evening trawling through all my accounts looking at the numerous beatiful ante post slips I have on Hurricane Fly (im sure the rumours were purely to let connections get a better price - anyway i certainly have!!), Big Bucks and Quevega plus all of the doubles and trebles i have running. Just waiting for Quevegas race to go NRNB then will plough more on her! Thinking of adding Sizing Europe to the list.
Don - I would strongly recommend you back Quevega before they go NRNB. Voler La Vadette I still think is unlikely to make Cheltenham, Unaccompanied will go for the Champion despite uestyerdays disappointment, it'll be another 4 weeks or so before anyone goes NRNB for this race and when they do racing plans for all the mares will be known and Quevega will be 4/6 at best. The 5/4 available now is still IMO the best value bet at the festival....
It may be worth waiting until after the Tied Cottage to back Sizing Europe because if there is one place he has been vulnerable it is Punchestown. I have the feeling he really doesn't like the track as he has been beaten there far too often - he is only 4/11 at the track in his career. He was touched off by Big Zeb there last May having romped away from Big Zeb at Cheltenham, was readily beaten by Golden Silver and Big Zeb in the Tied Cottage last year and in 2010 was defeated in the Punchestown Champion Chase having run away with the Arkle. He hasn't won at Punchestown since his novice chase year. I'm not saying he won't win the Tied Cottage but I don't believe Punchestown suits him and wouldn't be wanting to lump on him there. If he gets touched off in the Tied Cottage he may well lengthen a little for Cheltenham and then I would be all over him, as he clearly thrives at Prestbury Park
Thanks Grizz.... I have already 'maxed out' on Quevega at 6/4 (and have it in countless doubles and trebles with HF and BB) !!!! Paddy Power will live to regret going out on a whim. I agree though, cracking bet but dont want to risk more until NRNB now as only risk she doesnt win for me is if she gets injured. Good thinking Oddy, agree entirely with that so will hold off for now!
Don - you already have the value (6/4) strap in, wait a few weeks then collect ! I had a big double Quevega and Big Bucks, I think they're both absolute certanties but 4/9 Bucks doesn't interest me as a single but 5/4 Quevega does, so I may do some 'financial re-shuffling' and freeing up some money to back this as a single. One of the bets I have most years is sell the overall distances for the week, but the amateurs always find a way of booting home something by 25 lengths (Foxhunters and Kim Muir) and ruining any profit that might be there and Quevega won last years Mares by 10 lengths without coming off the bridle, with this years renewal looking a weaker race how far does she win ? It's almost looking a buy @ 103 lengths....
Grizz, agreed that Quevega looks more value to me than BB. I manged to get BB at 3/5 a while ago. I really like those type bets grizz, especially if you do it with a spread bet. Gives every race a different dimension and something to suport if nothing youve backed is in the shake up! Over could be the bet this year, whose to say HF, BB and Quevega couldnt win by a total of 25 lengths as a starter.
I've sold religiously forever but that was on the basis that every race was competititve, unfortunately the extended festival has led to a few races being very uncompetititive (Quevega, Junior, Carlito Brigante, Zemsky), the amatuers have always tried ruining the bet but when Carlito Brigante hacked up in an ultra tough race to call I knew then the selling strategy was coming to the end of its' time. I had a decent bet on Junior last year, cheering him home was fun then realising that the 24 lengths he won by had almost wiped out what I won on the race was a strange experience ! The novice races are also a danger - I've seen many an unexposed horse bound away from the field and the pilots don't stop to think about future marks, they keep driving for all they're worth ! Even with decent ground I'm thinking buying may well be the way forward....
I too had a big bet on Junior but wasnt playing the winning distance margin market! Indeed an odd feeling. Thats why its best to be a buyer! Double the satisfaction! How many races are there at the Festival this year? Which bookie is showing 103 already or is that what it was last year?
27 races, Sporting Index 95-103. This is spread betting not fixed, the fixed boys will wait until the ground becomes more of a known factor. We haven't had one in a while but given the changes to the festival if the ground was to come up soft the 103 (buy) would be a giveaway IMO
yes, i would do it on a spread, far more exciting! Right, might well have some of that then. Surely will be good or good / soft going? Thats a bet in itself!! Ive just checked and its actually 105 / 115 Griz?
His trainer said as much in an interview after SEs defeat by BZ at Punchestown last year. The interviewer gave De Bromhead the opportunity to say that SE had left his race at Cheltenham. DB reckoned that fitness wasn't the issue but that the track didn't play to SEs strengths and that he needed the Cheltenham hill to bring his stamina into play and also draw the sting out of the oppo.
Does anyone know whether theres been anything from the yard about Quevega and she is coming along? Is she that fragile that she wont race before the festival?
Yesterday I had a (very) small win but it did allow me to take advantage of the following . . . Hurricane Fly, Sizing Europe, Big Buck's and Long Run - 1pt Win at 33/1 with Paddy Power Hurricane Fly, Sizing Europe, Big Buck's and Kauto Star - 0.9pts Win at 43.43/1 with Paddy Power I see Paddy Power have now gone 28/1 for the 4 reigning champs so I think I was just in time.
Same as always. Straight to the Festival and then Punchestown. Willie has done it time and again and said she's dead easy to get fit for the big day. No concern whatsoever.
also, is there an easy was of seeing who has the best odds for an acca on oddschecker or anywhere else or do you have to look at all the prices? Following on from Zen wondering which bookie has the best price for Quevega, Hurricane Fly, Sizing Europe, Big Buck's and Long Run Quevega, Hurricane Fly, Sizing Europe, Big Buck's and Kauto
