Ambitious prediction's season

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What will be the points total of this years winner?

  • Total voters
    16
  • Poll closed .
BrightLampShade

BrightLampShade

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Forum Moderator
Feb 14, 2011
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Who's willing to stick their neck on the line and predict the points total for this years winner? All being well if I remember in 10 races the winner will get mucho rep.

I shall make a poll but feel free to give us an exact number here.


I've gone for 293 points for no other reason than it being the total if you collected points at 95% of the rate Alonso is currently going at ;)

[As a heads up the most anyone can have is 404pts (Alonso)]
 
Alonso - 336, He has 154 now, and that included a meh car at the start. Double that due to amount of races is 308, put another 30 or so on for the car being a good car and you get my number.
 
Alonso - 259. The Mclarens and Lotus will win more races in the latter half of the season. Alonso is due a DNF or 2!
 
Taking the weighted average from this poll so far we can see how everyone but Alonso is dropping off the required Not606 rate. Obviously we are all right so thats that sorted.

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The winner will need 305 points!
 
Since the last race the winning total has risen to 307 points so here's where we are at for the 'big 5'. Raikkonen may deserve a place replacing Button however:

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Alonso - 342

I'm hoping their form in Hungary was track specific and in future races they'll be back up there. In that case, Alonso will continue to get podiums and I think could win the championship convincingly.
 
–Alonso is still firm favourite; but I think some are over-estimating the winner's final points tally.

If Alonso wins it at about the same points rate (including his DNF at Spa), he should accumulate something in the order of 270 points.
If he does so without similar mishap, it could be closer to 280pts.

However, I do not expect him to maintain quite the same rate for the whole season and expect realistic challenges from others if they can become more consistent from now on. Predictions are never my forté but I will stick my neck out. I was going to say 259 but now notice that number is already claimed!, so I'll adjust it upwards to a lowly 264pts, with a very close end to the season; perhaps a three way title battle* emerging towards the end, most likely going in Alonso's favour.
- - -o0o- - -
​

*Hopefully even more!
 
Well those new guess's brings the not606 estimate down to 301 points. Which put into context is about 15 more than what Button got last year (He got 270pts in 19 races ~ 285pts in 20 races)
 
Hamilton has the fastest car but a 2 race win gap to bridge. Alonso has a decent lead in a car slower than Red Bull and McLaren. Vettel has the 2nd fastest car and a bridgeable gap. Can't see Mark being quicker than Vettel over this part of the season, he cracked at Korea 2010 and Abu Dhabi Qualifying 2010.

Conclusion:

Unless Lewis pulls off a performance of his life and Alonso's car gets quicker and he continues to get lucky then Seb will become a 3-time World Champ. How many points? Near the 300 mark.

Also can see McLaren getting the Constructors Title.
 
I'm now going to say Raikkonen. Dont know how many points.

But if Vettel can outscore both Alonso and Raikkonen this week, he [Vettel] must be favourite, seeing how Monza will be the weakest track for them from now.
 
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