Ok, here's my reads on people:
Mikey - Mikey is Pablo. I know this for a fact. You will see tonight that I am right when he is lynched.
Me - I am an innocent townie with no (more) powers. There is a 50/50 chance I will die tonight with Mikey. That was the cost of naming Pablo. I don't want to die, but you need to assume the worst and that even if everything else goes for us then we will be down to 4 townies tonight.
ACS - I am finding ACS confusing. this is normal in mafia games though. Even today he changed his mind on Obi 4 times on one page without being fed any new information. I suspect he is muddying the waters, but this time I think it's on the side of good. I am 90% convinced that ACS is an important part of the town and on our side.
Swarbs/Bodanki - I am 70% sure both are town. The reason being that both have had fairly constructive posts for the town and both came out independently and said that Mikey was Cartel while I was still typing my post. I suspect they both completed tasks to get an investigation.
SirTennisball - This is where it gets confusing. Based on posts and actions alone I'd be 70% sure that he was a townie. He has been constructive and helpful. However, we have the investigation from MITO, who we now know was the PI. On it's own this said that Tennis was 67% mafia. We also know that we have to treat investigation results very carefully now. Something strange is going on with the results. Balancing things out I'd say I was 55% sure Tennis is a townie. Lots of muddy water though.
Bobby/Sebb - too quiet. I've had limited contact with Bobby in these games before but when I did he contributed much more. Similarly, I have never seen Sebb so quiet. Neither has done anything to attract suspicion - other than not doing enough. This seems out of character but isn't evidence on its own. We have killed three quiet players now and we just killed three innocent townies. Did we just go for the wrong quiet ones? These two have been less quiet than Nobby and Rolando. Is that an attempt to not appear quiet by doing just enough? I'd say I was 55% sure these two could be NON-Town.
Lucas - Very very quiet. out on his own in that regard with the exception of Tash. Has been online at nightfall without voting. Others have said he always plays a quiet game though. So perhaps this is not evidence. 60% sure Lucas is NON-Town.
Obi - I went after him really really hard last night to see how he reacted and he didn't really. This makes me think he is just messing with us for fun rather than anything sinister. Hasn't offered any explanation why all 3 of his first predictions were wrong (which you will see tonight they are). So suspect he is harmless other than feeding random info to us to mess with our heads.
My advice tonight is to go lynch Mikey and for the Meth head to go after one of the two I've put as 55% likely to be non-town and for schizo to go after the one I have put as 60% likely to be non-town, for no other reason than they are already arranged like that above.
I think we are bound to start hitting positive results soon. the numbers are starting to come a bit more into our favour in terms of chance.
