A Month of Nass

Money came for Willa in the end and Dramatista drifted. It was not hard to reason why because the Watson filly was small and unimpressive looking. Any thoughts the trainer had for the Moyglare are no more than a dream after that and Willa looked much more like a long term prospect with scope.

Cressida is tiny, even smaller than Dramatista I would say but she just held on from her stablemate. Wasaayef is the one to take from the race. Pushed along at one stage she kept on really strongly and was just denied. She has a lot more presence than her stablemate and is the one to take going forward. The pair were 5 lengths clear of the third and should get a decent rating via Willa as a line.

It shows that it's a guessing game with these unraced horses and the market was useless as a guide today. Dramatista was the market positive but ran like a drain while Cressida was the big market negative but won the race.

 

So back to -9pts

Tomorrow we head to Epsom for the Tapis Libre Lady Amateurs Epsom Derby, the 1m4f race that is run every year and is won every year by Tapis Libre. He is a mere 11 years of age now and has won this race four times, starting back in 2013 when the B word wasn't around, and Sheik Mo and Princess Haya were racing's golden couple.

Tomorrow he returns to the scene of all those glories and returns in pretty much the same form that he showed prior to the race last year, with a competitive finish in an amateur race at York.

However this year he might not get as much of a gallop to chase, and that along with another year of age should finally catch the old boy out. He does have the able companion Joanna Mason back on his back, and that should help him, but in opposition I really fancy the Ralph Beckett trained four year old Blazing Saddles who has the more than able Serena Brotherton in the saddle.

So, Blazing Saddles, not the 'comedic' western, but the horse, comes into this race on the back of two fair second places on the turf at Lingfield. I think as we've seen this year, Lingfield is the obvious place to prep for the Epsom Derby, and so it can prove here again. He isn't straightforward though, and that is why I think the drop into an amateur riders race might prove perfect for him. He hasn't run with a female jockey before and I think this can sweeten him up to run a seasonal best and win this race comfortably.

2pt win @ 10/3

No. Don't do that, don't do that. If you shoot him you'll just make him mad.

 

He's near I think...

 

It's Mongo.

 

POLISH for me. Which when you think about it is a very appropriate name for a horse in a ladies race!

 

What if the name refers to something from Poland?

 

If Derek ‘Thommo’ Thompson was a forum member we would, right now, be having a 3 hour debate about whether this horse should be pronounced ‘Pol-ish’ or ‘Po-lish’.

Used to be trained by Roger Charlton (Polish not Derek ‘Thommo’ Thompson).

 

Tapis Libre for me. Surely laid out for this race. Three pounds lower than when winning it last season and not a bad run at all last time at York to prep for this. Jockey knows the horse and the horse knows his way home here.

6.05 Epsom Tapis Libre 2pts win 10/3

 

Well that was the worst of the lot, horrendous judgement of pace by the more experienced jockeys and poor old Tapis Libre had nothing left to give at 2 furlongs from home.

I am now -11 and I need a good winner soon!

1:50 Sandown - Beyond Equal

This horse looks well handicapped for me, and this race should be perfect for him. He is a pace angle and he responded really well to pressure when he won at Bath last time out. At Sandown over the sprint distances it often pays to be up with the speed, and this boy should bag the coveted rail and be very tough to pass. He should have the pace to hold Swiss Knight off the rail, and that will prove invaluable in the closing stages. As long as Shane Kelly can judge the fractions I think Beyond Equal will prove just that.

I am also really looking forward to the Dragon Stakes in which Liberty Beach and Al Raya bring Albany form to the table against the colts. I hope Liberty Beach can get her rewards here, I thought she was better than the bare form in the Albany and she has the best of the draw. I fear it might become tactical.

Over in the Selling races 6:10 should be won at a canter by Hannons Ajrar if she returns to anything like her juvenile form, but at odds on, she looks a tad short, especially against older horses. She gets tonnes of weight from the field but can she prove that she is still a racehorse?

Whilst in the selling handicap at Gods Own racecourse you have Hot Ryan (what an awful name for a mare) against He Is Rosie, in what seems to be an ambiguous name race. The one I like in this is named after a maker of memory cards, so we will see if he gets a Flash Drive from his jockey Jonjo O'Neil (Jnr obviously).... Yes, I'd be with Kingston.

The bet however is 2pts on Beyond Equal @ 5/2

 

Beyond Equal for me too. Had a fair bit to spare last time and as long as he doesn't get outpaced early he should pick them up today in a race where few appeal to me.

Beyond Equal 3/1 2pts

 

Another diabolical run. -13

So its Super Saturday and I would love Telecaster to win the Eclipse, but I can't and instead I go to the 1:50 at Sandown in which I am going with a trainer that is often maligned on this forum. Mssr Attwater has had a cracking season so far and this horse, The Cruising Lord, really caught my eye last time out and that run suggested that racing in group company wouldn't be too much of an issue.

He is 25/1 here but most of this field have questions to answer at this horse did show plenty last time out.

1pt EW @ 25/1

 

That wasn't a bad run last time out by The Cruising Lord Nass. So I suppose the 25-1 is a decent shout. The one I like though is Sheikh Hamdan's Muthmir at 6-1. He went nicely to the line in a big field of 19 in the Epsom Dash.

Muthmir. 6-1 E.W.

 

He ran well today without really being given a chance by Jason Watson.

Unfortunately I’ve not got much time today/tomorrow so it’s just a brief one.

2:10 Dan Gun 2pt @ 17/2

Ridiculously well handicapped or completely regressive. One or the other.

 

Dan Gun doesn't go (insert own firing-pin joke here). Anyway, I thought the terms of reference were for one flat race a day ?

More to the point, why are you scuffling about with summer jumping, which is generally agreed to be the stamping-ground of thieves, wastrels, knaves and layabouts ? Keep your powder dry until the next AWT meeting at Southwell (Monday 26/8, I think). You don't want to see people RIP-ing on here with little emojis of doves and roses and saying what a tragedy it is when a once-fine mind is allowed to decay.

 

Ah, terms of reference? When you've got an awful card at Ayr and that is it, then you can't swerve the true racing of Great Britain.

So yeah, -15 so far...

4:30 Ayr

This race looks to be run at a good gallop with Corton Lad, Mapped and Dr Richard Kimble likely to want to take them along. Therefore I am happy to be against the previous selection Corton Lad, and the one that really catches the eye is Ad Libitum of Roger Fell. This horse is down to a really attractive handicap mark, and tomorrow he runs off 67 despite taking the eye last time out off 70.

So his last run, he came with a challenge over 2 furlongs out, and whilst that faltered, he wasn't unduly punished by his jockey and it looked to me that some of the spark was returning.

2pt win @ 7/1


The bigger question is Dr Richard Kimble, will he put in an Oscar winning performance here? I for one can't believe that film was made in 1993.

 

The favourite is now odds-on in the 4.30 Ayr

Working on reverse logic from the flat to hurdles conversion, you would think that Lever De Soliel is capable of better than the 54 mark he won from on the Flat last time. Rated in the 120's over hurdles means he has performed better in that sphere than the old Mick Fitzgerald theory of adding 45 lbs to the Flat rating to see how good they might be over hurdles. Does than mean he can follow up today then? Very possibly yes but he's too short for me.

Sbraase is up the weights from his Handicap win at Ballinrobe but at least he arrives on the hat-trick and I reckon he has an each-way shout today. 11/1 seems to underestimate his chance and although long in the tooth at 8YO it's not a strong race.

Sbraase 11/1 1pt EW.

 

Oh well, I thought he might do it there but just worn down by the favourite. Those taking 4/6 must have needed clean underpants after that but well pleased with Sbraase's effort from a 7 lbs higher mark than last time. The pair were miles clear of the rest.

 

As Grendel suspected the favourite did prove hard to beat. The selection wasn't good, but Sbraase of Grendels' ran very well.

The thread isn't doing the trick, but lets plough on. A winner or two changes it, and I am still enjoying the randomness that comes from the thread.

Tomorrow I am going up in grade, to the Pipalong Stakes at Pontefract. I am guessing the race is named after the horse of Tim Easterby's. This leads me to ask the question, which race is named after the most "mediocre" horse?

Tomorrows race revolves around two questions for me.

Is Billesdon Brook back to her best? If so, can she beat last years winner Clon Coulis?

To me, Billesdon Brook won a fair listed race last time out, but I don't think she is back to her Guineas form and here she has to give weight to Clon Coulis, which will make the task tougher tomorrow.

Clon Coulis ran a belter last time out and I think she is the best horse in this race, and a repeat win is on the cards.

2pt win @ 9/4