If I’ve run the report right it suggests top rated and SP favourite in sellers win percentage of 45.6% in last ten years. 43% in claimers.
And Ice Age was on my list but it was too trippy with the Guest horse also high on the list. As bad days racing as I’ve seen for a while that’s purely flat racing.
I'm not sure I'd be taking 5-4 about Mister Music Nass. I wish you all the best, especially if you stick your hard earned on. The odds seems too short for a 10 year old who's stepping back from a mile and is slow away most of the time. Although he has a decent barrier there's every chance he'll suffer in the short run to the first corner. Another thing that made me sit up and take notice, was Poppy Bridgwater jumping off the horse ( which she's ridden for it's last 5 runs) and sticking with Secondo from a good alley. Secondo can be a bit hit and miss when it comes to being on the pace, but 8-1 seems a fair price. Secondo 8-1.
Hate to be pedantic, my old love, but the 2.45 is a claimer rather than a seller. The only one of today’s runners that I’d be tempted to purchase / claim would be the Hannon filly Time For Bed (whether that is a lovely name for a filly or not is a debate for another day). Amazing to think she goes in a seller taday when 4 runs back she earned connections over £33k when runner-up at Newmarket! Interestingly re recent sellers the Blake barn won such a heat at an ‘away’ fixture on ‘Ascot Wednesday’. Doubly Clever was the animal and he attracted not one single bid which quite surprised me I must be honest.
I’d obviously had a little shortage of the tonic in the weekends drinks!! Of course it’s a claimer, as the youth day, my bad.
In relation to your stiff run Nass, there's a adage in Australia called "Doing a Bradbury." It's used when things come right when all looks lost.
Got a nice one for you Saturday Nass - a lovely filly called Enable running at Sandown (well she might run)
Is this from the same source who gave you Altior back in January??? I still maintain that was the greatest 'I've been told...' this forum has ever seen.
Nudge nudge, wink wink old chap. I see Peace And Co is 2 from 2 since leaving Mr Henderson - and they say horses rarely prosper after leaving Seven Barrows. Is he the exception that proves the rule? Runs in the 16.55 at Clairefontaine today. That card has added Forum interest incidentally, as the father of the Forum's favourite Corinthian, Mr Waley-Cohen Snr, has one in the 15.45 heat - Fin Du Match. My knowledge of the French language does not permit me to form an opinion on whether this is a lovely name for a filly (although it does sound like the old full time whistle what, what?).
Hard to oppose Mister Music with much confidence but he seems better at Southwell than anywhere else. He has won at Wolverhampton but didn't run to anything like his best Southwell form to win that one. In his most recent form he had two runs at Wolverhampton rated 73 and two runs at Southwell rated 89. Those figures support the thinking that Southwell is his track and perhaps worrying is that his most recent run was at Southwell and in the same class 6 race as today he was a shade of odds-on and ran a miserable 66 in defeat. Motajaasid is no world beater but is capable of getting his head in front, the trouble he has is that he has to concede 8 lbs to the favourite but if it were a handicap he would be getting 8 lbs due to his OR of 76 versus Mister Music on 84. That said, with the race being away from Southwell the actual superiority of Mister Music may not be as big as the ratings imply. Mister Music is weak in the betting this morning and out to almost 2/1. That may seem like money in the street to some people but it has that "Too good to be true" look about it. Motajaasid is also easy to back but at 13/2 he is an each-way price. In the circumstances I felt Motajaasid had a good chance of placing and with the market vibes on Mister Music looking ominous the selection was an each-way punt on the 4YO horse with less miles on the clock. The jockey has won on him before and has a decent record for Richard Hughes. The stable is not in flying form but have been in the winners recently. 2.45 Wolverhampton Motajaasid 13/2 1pt EW
Huge price on Mister Music in the end. Mind you he looked 10/1 at one stage to win but rattled home. My selection ended up setting the race up. I think he did too much early to overcome the bad draw and although getting the good position he may have sacrificed a bit in doing so. He's run OK from bad terms on the day. Hard to have predicted Mister Music would have been 9/4 after being 5/4 earlier but there were probably those who stuck him in doubles and trebles earlier who are delighted with the SP.
Firstly, before Barney comes on and adjudicates, I am claiming the 9/4 SP. I need all the help I can get, and I did back it BOG with Paddy Power this morning as well. 2 win from 8 -5 pts 7/4 & 9/4 winners. So tomorrow.....
