A Month of Nass

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by NassauBoard, Jun 23, 2019.

  1. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Well done, the removal of Scuzeme really changed that race.
     
    #221
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  2. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    Well done Grendel, nice forecast we had there!
    Sadly I backed mine win only.
     
    #222
    Grendel likes this.
  3. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Horrendous cards tomorrow, small fields at Bath especially disappointing.

    2:15 Beverley - I have this as a strong draw bias track and when you have a pace burn up, something can pick its way through the field. The horse I think will do this is Atyaaf, whose main concern is the form of his stable. He however has shown decent form recently (Redcar penultimate run).

    I think he has the right running style to go well here and I think the race is set up to suit. 10/1 looks big.

    2pt win at 10/1
     
    #223
  4. Sir Barney Chuckles

    Sir Barney Chuckles Who Dares Wins

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    Wonderfully bred animal for a class 6 event as the old boy is a half-brother to a Queen Mary winner. The dam is also a half-sister to a 1,000 Guineas winner.
     
    #224
  5. smokethedeadbadger

    smokethedeadbadger Well-Known Member

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    Cuppacoco 14/1 2pts win
     
    #225
  6. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    In the 2.15 Beverley I was torn between top-weight Mr Greenlight and Hello Girl. Mr Greenlight is still a maiden and I have a pet hate of backing favourite's in handicaps when they have never won a race before. Hello Girl ran a bit below her best last time out (RPR 10 lbs lower than previous start) but her previous race puts her right in the picture here, even from a 4 lbs higher mark than that win.

    Slight preference would be for Hello Girl at 4/1 but in a tricky looking race I was somehow drawn to a rank outsider. Moonlit Sands is 50/1 but has a fair bit of form at the track, including a win. She has been off for a while and has a high draw to overcome but in this company any possible improvement from last season might give her an outside each-way shout at a massive price. This will be Moonlit Sands' 7th start at Beverley and she should at least know where the winning line is, for all that getting there first is a different matter.

    2.15 Bev
    Hello Girl 1pt win 4/1
    Moonlit Sands 0.5pts EW 50/1
     
    #226
  7. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    For god sake
     
    #227
  8. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Hard lines with that one, that was very tight.

    Hello Girl was too far off the pace today but I thought Moonlit Sands ran well for a 50/1 shot. Towards the rear she stayed on well with One Boy from a fair way back, just pipping him for 7th place, not at all far behind the 2/1 Fav and 11/4 2nd Fav for the race. Not a bad run for a no-hoper in the betting.
     
    #228
  9. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Tomorrow is worse than today!!

    However, the 4:30 at Catterick has a pace burn up, and I like Something Lucky to take advantage of it. He doesn't win very often but has the ability to win this and the race should fall apart around him. 2pt win at 8/1
     
    #229
  10. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    LANDING NIGHT ticks every box and then some.
     
    #230

  11. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    The Defiant looks a win machine in the context of the 4.30 Catterick. Not much of a price at 5/2 but he has improved from 51 to 71 this season and was probably a little aggressively ridden last time when three lengths clear at halfway before folding into second place in the closing stages. That good effort over course and distance makes him the one to beat as a younger horse with perhaps more improvement to come.

    Landing Night won from a mark of 75 when last successful and is down to 68 now. It's almost a year since he won but he often competes in better races than this and ran in a class 3 when last seen. Has a good record at Catterick but it's been more than 3 years since he won here.

    Something Lucky is on a low enough mark on 66 but he seems an all-weather horse and I was having trouble tracking down the two wins he is listed as having on turf. The races I saw which were candidates seemed to be from a fairly long time ago.

    I think the younger horse is going to be hard to beat if the jockey gets him settled and doesn't get into a battle up front. Younger legs and a good run of form from a horse coming out of a yard batting at 20% make The Defiant the one for me, even if a bit short.

    4.30 Catterick The Defiant 5/2

    Over at Lingfield in the 2.40 I selected Multiply By Eight to double up with The Defiant. Richard Hannon has Dark Lady as the favourite there but I think Multiply By Eight achieved more when 12th of 25 in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot. The winner of that race and other runners from it have gone in again since and this is a big drop in class for Multiply By Eight. I thought she was better value at 5/2 than the Hannon filly at half those odds.
     
    #231
    Ron likes this.
  12. smokethedeadbadger

    smokethedeadbadger Well-Known Member

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    Indian Pursuit 6/1 2pts win
     
    #232
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  13. redcgull

    redcgull Well-Known Member

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    Crumbs, four posts on the next selected race and all four posters have gone with a different pick...!! <yikes><yikes><yikes>

    One of you will be happy, or not...:bandit: :emoticon-0105-wink:
     
    #233
  14. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Wow we caught a handicap blot in that. Decent run again in 2nd
     
    #234
  15. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    3:30 Chepstow Secondo 10/1 2pt EW

    Preview to follow
     
    #235
  16. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Little Legs dotted up there but Something Lucky stayed on well to claim second. The Defiant took a strong hold and once getting engaged in a battle for the lead his goose was cooked. No surprise that he weakened badly in the closing stages and until he learns to settle better he will not add to his total of wins.

    My other pick today was disappointing, making no impact dropped from Group 2/Class 1 all the way to Novice/Class 5. She could not even beat a 66/1 shot and that was very tame. As said it was only a Class 5 today but the Hannon filly Dark Lady tore her field to shreds. A promising looking 2YO with scope to improve, she looked the winner all the way really. Multiply By Eight came in with a RPR of 83 but I reckon she ran way below that today.

    Little Legs looks ready for a move up from Class 5 after today's win.
     
    #236
  17. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    When I read her back form I couldnt believe how we had all missed her, was running in listed company and going pretty close in her juvenile last year!
     
    #237
  18. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Form versus back class. It’ll be interesting to see if she continues on an upward curve.
     
    #238
  19. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    so the selection today is a hold up horse in a race dominated by pace angles. Much better jockey takes over and now nibbled in the market. Another 2nd?
     
    #239
  20. smokethedeadbadger

    smokethedeadbadger Well-Known Member

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    Cool Strutter 7/1 2pts win. Back up to 6f, in decent form should go well
     
    #240

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