A couple of breeders: 2014

The Royal runners keep hitting the woodwork at the moment and despite a healthy wins to runs ratio they have an even healthier placed to runs ratio!! Two run tonight at Newbury and hopefully one will go in.

Her 2yo Peacock's form is looking good. The third in the race, Epithet, came out and won a strong Newmarket maiden impressively, while the 4th placed horse took the Chesham Stakes in commanding fashion. His next run is waited with some anticipation and maybe a return to Newmarket is on the cards. Touchline keeps getting positive mentions.

Islington's 2yo daughter Angel Vision (by Oasis Dream) has had a gallops mention. I am in shock as they struggle to get to the track as 3yos.

 

As I said in my early season article I felt this year was one for the Royal Studs. So far they have had 11 winners with Sea Shanty being the biggest money winner. She’s had the morphine problem with Estimate and that filly failed in the Goodwood Cup, and the team are saying she’s just not suited to Goodwood.

Of the 3yos Purple Spectrum, after a couple of poor runs, suddenly put his best foot forward and won over 14f at Sandown. He needs a distance and a galloping track. Good Hope also won well over 12f after appearing a bit slow at shorter distances. She may win more races. The ‘brought-in’ Fiery Sunset may also go on to better things.

But this is mostly about the 2yos. Her first 3 2yos came out, ran well and two won their races. Peacock looked to have the most potential. They needed to prove it. Peacock most certainly didn’t and it must be back to the drawing board with him. Pack Together came 2nd in a reasonable race at Sandown to a good (but not outstanding ) filly of Candy’s stable. Pack Together seeks to do better in the Sweet Solera Stakes on Saturday. Touchline came out and ran extremely green at Goodwood when backed down to 9-2. She has a Cheveley Park entry and has to do a lot better to justify that.

Stoute has 3 Royal colts that are well entered. The first is Mustard, who is by Motivator out of Flash of Gold, is half-brother to 4 fairly ordinary winners. He has shown enough to be entered for the Royal Lodge. Being a relation of Flight of Fancy and Phantom Gold, staying should be his forte. The second of Stoute’s colts is a brought-in (from Darley) Street Cry called Capel Path. This colt out of a Rahy mare is from the family of In the Wings and again is entered in the Royal Lodge. Finally there is a Dubawi colt called Dartmouth (again from Darley), who is from the Wildensein family of Asmore and Acarangues. They should all hopefully be out sometime in August.

Stoute is supposed to have a good set of 2yos this year. He trains both for the Queen and Ballymacoll and is likely to have one or two good ones for them.

As regards Ballymacoll they at last had their second winner (5th win but only 2nd winner) of the year in late July when Tercel won at Sandown. Now gelded he may improve in handicaps. Islington’s 3yo daughter Upper Street seems very slow and will probably be sold. Highland Gift (dam of Golan and Tartan Gift) has a 3yo daughter called Long View who appears as if she’d win, but again has too much of the slows. Still no sign of Song of Namibia.

Of course their flag-bearer has very much been Arab Spring who has won 4 races but then was easily beaten at Newmarket. Most viewers felt the problem was he couldn’t take the leap from a Class 1 handicap to Group 2. They may be right, but I’m far from convinced and will want to see him in his next race. His run was too bad to be true, he ran at least 10lb below anything he’d achieved before. It was a muddling race and he didn’t seem suited by it at all. Those who remember Pilsudski will remember this colt graduating from handicaps to Group races and fluffing his lines mid-way through his 4yo season then not running another bad race. I think Arab Spring may do the same sort of thing, though I’d be surprised if he’s a Pilsudski.

Of the 2yos most excitement is around Angel Vision. Islington’s daughter by Oasis Dream just may at last be something you’d expect from such a high class racemare. Entered in the Rockfel, she should be out in the next month if she is to meet that engagement: she is entered on Saturday. (So far Islington has been very good at producing foals, but all without any of her ability).

While Ballymacoll have some beautifully bred 2yos, I’m not convinced about those (other than Angel Vision) currently getting entries. Indelible Ink (a gelding half-brother of Liber Nauticus) looks faily ordinary and I’ll be shocked if Referendum (by Cape Cross out of Mary Stuart) turns out to be something special: so would Ballymacoll as they sold the mare. Voice Control (Dalakhani out of Scottish Stage) has received some mentions, is entered this week, but is out of a mare who has so far produced a lot of rascals. So I’d want to see some robust performances from him.

Ballymacoll badly need some injection of speed. They sent Liber Nauticus to Dark Angel and she should have a foal by him next year, but I’d like to see a quarter of their mares going to fast stallions like Zebedee, Kodiac and Dark Angel for a couple of years. It’s all very well having these wonderful slow-developing horses but most racehorses are sold down the road after their 3yo season, whilst most of Ballymacoll’s have hardly met the course: ‘twas not always like this (eg Reform, Sun Prince and Sallust). Just a slight adjustment would do.

 

The success of a stud can be measured by its wins to foals. Ballymacoll are having a tough time. If we look at the foals of 2011 (so 3yos this year) then you have 4 winning foals winning 4 races. Thankfully Long View won yesterday and will be an important broodmare for the stud (a Galileo sister of Golan, she may also win further races). But you can’t get away from the fact that this is a disappointing figure. Compare this with previous years:-
2010 8 winners of 15 races
2009 7 winners of 16 races
2008 4 winners of 7 races (but includes Fiorente)
2007 6 winners of 12 races
2006 6 winners of 11 races
2005 8 winners of 22 races

There is no Fiorente among this year’s 3yos. You have to say this is an uninspiring figure.
So what of the 2012 foals? Obviously unfair to totally judge them yet but what we have seen so far has been similarly uninspiring with Referendum and Indelible Ink looking candidates for the Sales. Voice Control ran an acceptable debut and may be capable of winning a race but this branch of the Country House family has been such a lot of shirkers that I can’t have a lot of confidence. The mentioned on the gallops Angel Vision (hopefully Islington’s first decent foal) will turn out to be as useful they make out, I hope.
Most of the rest of the Ballymacoll juveniles have not been mentioned and though you may see a couple have their debuts they are mostly for next year. There is one difference this year in that they have a purchased 2yo called Clara Schumann, except that when you look at the pedigree the dam, Zarzuela, is a half-sister to Glass Harmonium and Arab Spring. The explanation is that Zarzuela (unraced by Rock of Gibraltar) was sold by Ballymacoll in foal to Medicean, but when the ensuing foal came up for sale they picked her up cheaply for 19,000gns. As they have no daughter of Spring Symphony (Arab Spring’s dam) and she keeps being barren, this purchase looks prudent. Whether Clara Schumann turns out to be any good is another matter, but she’s been mentioned on the gallops.
Other news is that Song of Namibia (the only entire 3yo colt in training) has been taken out of training is either no more or retired. In conclusion 2014, with the exception of Arab Spring, has been a write-off for Ballymacoll. Three winners AS, Long View and Tercel from originally 24 horses in training isn’t good enough.

 

15 wins year to date and the Royal Stud may be set for their biggest money winning year of the last 25 years, and with 11 weeks to go may beat their 2009 total of 20 wins. Winners have been spread across the ages with 4yos perhaps edging it in terms of prize money at this point. Sea Shanty won two reasonable handicaps, but most pleasing Prince’s Trust came out after more than a year and won a fair 7f handicap ridiculously easily. As he won over 10f as a 3yo he just could be a Cambridgeshire horse, and is already at a fairly low price. Trained by Hannon as a 3yo he was rated by him, but as he also had Sea Shanty was sent to Haggas who has delivered the goods in getting him to win first time out. Bold Sniper is possibly the best of the 4yos but has had a frustrating year with several good places. Taking on the Ebor distance was probably a bit too much for him. He can still win a good race at 10-12f.

The big change this year has been the stud has produced 3 2yo winners from the few who have run. Peacock and Pack Together won for Hannon on their debuts and both looked promising. They both were a touch disappointing second time out. However Pack Together has recently had a Group 1 Fillies Mile entry so Hannon must expect more from her. Peacock is on a recovery mission at Doncaster this week. The form of his debut still looks very good. The filly commentators had spoken about before her debut was Touchline. She was significantly backed on her debut at Goodwood but gave a disappointing run with her action looking very scratchy. She then came out and won a 6f maiden at Yarmouth quite impressively except that in the last half-furlong she again appeared scratchy. Upped in class she again disappointed. Maybe she was just a morning glory on the gallops or maybe she needs to grow up.

Another filly Kinematic has been placed 3 times and is one of those frustrating fillies who always finds one to beat her. Balding may be able to get a win somewhere. More interesting are 3 colts who’ve had their debuts for Stoute. All three are well entered, all three have been mentioned on the gallops and all three could follow up in their next outing. First out was Capel Path (by Street Cry from the family of In the Wings) and he ran satisfactorily enough to make one think he’ll win and do better. Dartmouth (by Dubawi out of Wildenstein family mare) was probably the most highly touted and may need more time. These were brought in colts, so I was pleased to see the best debut coming from the home-bred Mustard (it was a joke in the first article that he could be hot). By Motivator out of a Daarshan half-sister to Phantom Gold, he ran very green first time out but got the idea in the last few furlongs finishing 3rd: with Moore up next time follow him. I have long trumpeted in these articles that this family just does not have the class of the stud’s Feola family and I was heartened to hear on Betfair Radio from one of their better experts that he viewed this family as ‘iffy’. While I would love Mustard to go on and be a top-class colt I have concerns because too many in the past have been either shirkers or very quirky (eg in recent years Momentary, Bold Sniper, Queens Prize and perhaps Touchline).

There are plenty more 2yos that have not been entered (and we have no clue sometimes who is training them). From the Feola family there is sadly only one in the shape of Awesome Power (by Dubawi): in fact Pack Together is the only other 2yo representative of this family. From the ‘Phantom Gold’ family there are two unraced colts (of whom Galley Proof, by Galileo looks the better bred) and two fillies (both look good on paper: Dexterous, by Mastercraftsman, and Thames Pageant by Dansili). Of all of them my money is on the latter.

The Queen has had 6 winners from her 3yo fillies this year (Queen’s Prize [as a 2yo], Shama, Enliven, Micras, Good Hope and Fiery Sunset). The first two mentioned have been big disappointments and both have not appeared since their disastrous Oaks trials, though Shama (Shergar family) is reported as in good fettle at the moment and may have an Autumn campaign. At the same time they are both well bred and it will be difficult to not keep them. Micras and Good Hope are both from the Feola family and I’d like to see both of them kept even if they are not the fastest horses ever. I can’t help thinking at least one will be sold. Enliven has done little wrong, improving with each run to finally get off the mark at the 3rd attempt. By Dansili out of a Kyllachy mare from a Wildenstein family she would be a useful addition. Fiery Sunset is by Galileo out of a mare from the El Gran Senor family and looked smart when she won but then disappointed at York. It must be a temptation to keep the non-winning Dalmatia as being from the Daylami/Dalakhani family and such a lovely looking filly she could be a useful addition. No doubt they’ll continue trying to get a win from her. So some difficult decisions for the Royal Stud, let’s hope they make the right ones.

The colts? Well they’ve been pretty much a write-off with the exception of Musical Comedy. He can still win more races when the going gets softer. To Haggas’s credit he got Purple Spectrum to win twice and you have to say his stint as a Royal trainer has started well with 2 runners, 2 winners and 3 wins so far.

Finally Estimate has been a touch disappointing after her (disqualified) 2nd in the Ascot Gold Cup. She runs in the Doncaster Cup and a victory there may part make up for not putting her into the breeding sheds this year. If she's still OK she may run in the Melbourne Cup. But all in all a year with some promise for next year and some nice yearlings ready to come into training.

 

With a few weeks of the turf season remaining I thought I’d return to how the Queen has done this year.

5yo winners: Border Legend (1), Estimate (1)
4yo winners: Prince’s Trust (1), Sea Shanty (2)
3yo winners: Enliven(1), Fiery Sunset (1), Good Hope (1), Micras (1), Musical Comedy (1), Purple Spectrum (2), Shama (1)
2yo winners: Capel Path (1), Dartmouth (1), Kinematic (1), Mustard (1), Pack Together (1), Peacock(1), Touchline (1)

To date the Queen has had 20 winners which numerically equals her best figure for the last 19 years. The most impressive feature is the number of 2yo winners, in fact more 2yo winners than she has had in the previous 3 years put together. Before talking about these I’d like to discuss the disappointments. Estimate has to be one, but probably just as disappointing was Bold Sniper who was placed in good handicaps but did not win. Of the 3yos, 4yos and 5yos only Price’s Trust, Musical Comedy and possibly Bold Sniper look likely to be kept in training. Two rated 3yo fillies were damp squibs and these were Shama and Queen's Prize: both highly tried and falling way short. Queen’s Prize has not run since her only run in the Lingfield Oaks Trial, but by this time tomorrow she will have run in a Belmont Park race presumably on her way to be covered in the States.

Of the trainers you have to say Balding and Haggas did well winning with all the Royal horses they have so far run. Hannon also did well getting both his 2yos to win: he may have more as some horses don’t come into training until midsummer. Stoute and Bell had mixed years with successes entwined with disappointments. Charlton has had a disappointing year with his horses all wrong for a long time and a lot of the Royal horses not running.

But the 2yos are a bright bunch. Stoute had 3 winners with the brought- in Dartmouth and own-bred Mustard perhaps appearing the best. He also had a couple of other promising colts in Capel Path and Conflicting Advice. There’s little doubt in my mind that at least one of these will see a Derby Trial next year.

Hannon’s pair of winners Pack Together and Peacock made highly promising winning debuts and appeared to have exciting seasons ahead of them. While one can’t say they don’t remain promising they did not quite fulfil that early promise: if anything they appeared more like debutants on their second outings! They are both Paco Boys and it’s perhaps forgotten he did win as a 2yo, he was not highly tried. Maybe at least one of these two will train on and give the Queen a couple of listed/group animals.

Bell’s Touchline was strongly suggested as a fast filly from about May onwards. When she finally appeared in a late July Goodwood meeting she was backed as if she had a big chance, but ran no sort of race. She then came out a month later and won a Yarmouth maiden easily. She failed again when taking a step up into a listed race. A notable critic said that in both her first two races she showed a disconcerting collapse into a scratchy action when the pressure was exerted. This could be a weakness or it could just be immaturity. Bell had a filly like this called Set to Music a few years back. She matured a lot with a year on her back, there’s a chance this filly might do the same.

So what of the 2yos we haven’t seen? Pick Your Choice, an Elusive Quality colt out of the good filly Enticement, could be useful. He is with Haggas and Haggas doesn’t appear to run horses unless he is ready for them to deliver. Watch out for this one if he runs in the closing weeks. Another 2yo we might see is Motion Picture who is a filly by the Royal Stud’s discarded stallion Motivator out of a discarded mare Starshine. It would be ironic if this turned out to be useful and par for the course I’m afraid. Her gallops show she has 4 legs and may know how to use them. I was waiting for Dexterous (a Mastercraftsman sister to Bold Sniper and Queen’s Prize), she may get an outing this week: all her siblings have won.

Not sighted so far have been Galley Proof ( a colt by Galileo out of the Machiavellian mare Fictitious), Awesome Power (colt by Dubawi out of the Feola line mare Caraboss) or Relay Medley (a Medaglio d’Oro brother of Sea Shanty). I was waiting for Thames Pageant as I liked her pedigree of Dansili out of Golden Stream. There are also a few brought-in 2yos from The Aga Khan and Juddmonte that have not been sighted.

All to play for in 2015.

 

Bustino, the old girl has got Sea Shanty, Border Legend, Purple Spectrum and Bold Sniper entered in next week’s Tatts Horses in Training Sale. The first 3 I can understand, as it could be argued they have reached their ‘ceiling’ but the decision to dispose of Bold Sniper I find most, most surprising. He’s perched on 103 and to my mind still has a lot to offer on the Flat either in handicaps or even stepped up to Group level. His runs at Royal Ascot and York off ratings in the 100’s prove he isn’t far off that grade. Alternatively, Bold Sniper could be sent to Mr Henderson and prepared for a hurdles campaign. Something I’ve been saying I’d like to happen for a few months now as he could be set alight by 8 flights of hurdles and the great man’s ‘magic hands’.

The first 3 named above should bring in a fair few thousand but the price Bold Sniper goes for could be very high indeed – deffo 6 figures I would have thought and potentially up to £400,000, perhaps. In fact I could see a bidding war as there must be plenty of interest in him from Flat yards (maybe even Australian ones given how they love a quality UK middle distance prospect and the horse who finished one place behind Bold Sniper at Ascot, in receipt of 4 lbs, was bought by Aussie connections for 330,000 gns) and those jumping boys. Good luck to whoever buys him as Bold Sniper is always a horse I’ve liked. Depending on whichever avenue his new connections decide to send him it wouldn’t surprise me if in 2015 he became a contender for either the Supreme Novices’ or the Melbourne Cup.

 

Agree with almost all you say sir. Apparently Bold Sniper has been withdrawn from the Sale. Whether that's because they will keep him or he's been sold on the side I don't know. He is a bit of a scamp despite his undoubted ability and not the easiest of rides I'd imagine. (She also has Mr Charlton's Sharp Lookout going to the sales and he runs today).

 

That’s interesting re Bold Sniper. Maybe something will be made public in the next few days.

Sharp Lookout is up against Ridgeway Storm in that maiden this evening. A Mr Ponsonby, Alan King horse who has been most inconsistent since coming to the county. At his best Ridgeway Storm has formidable form (in July just a neck behind the now 98 rated Expert Fighter and in April just over 5 lengths off the now 109 rated Arod) but he’s also ran stinkers at Salisbury and Chester being beaten 55 and 79 lengths respectively! How Ridgeway Storm fares will be decided on which version of him turns up. The former and 6/4 is the price of the season, the latter and it’s the worst bet of all time. Maybe, this is a last chance for Sharp Lookout. Perform well and he too could be reprieved from the sale.