1. Log in now to remove adverts - no adverts at all to registered members!

2YO Horses To Note 2019 Flat Season

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by Grendel, Jun 9, 2019.

  1. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2018
    Messages:
    2,737
    Likes Received:
    1,798
    John Gosden has said that DARIAN may run in the middle of October.

    Darian is by Dubawi out of Dar Re Mi and is a full brother to Too Darn Hot, So Mi Dar and Lah Ti Dar. If he is as good as any of those he will be classy.

    The trainer explained that Darian is a different type of colt to Too Darn Hot, who was more precocious and he feels Darian will take after his mother and come into his own at three, and perhaps, four years of age.

    You would think if he runs in October then that will be it for the year and perhaps he might appear in something like the Fielden Stakes next Spring. It will be against the grain if he isn't any good given his Dam's record.
     
    #121
  2. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
    Forum Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2011
    Messages:
    48,324
    Likes Received:
    15,500
    I really can't be bothered to dissect all that Grendel. I can say with confidence though that your statistic hasn't offended anyone. So I don't understand that comment. The last statement just leaves me cold. Again irrelevant. Who cares how many people can look at a stat? In all my life, I've never selected an Oaks winner to win the Arc, until Enable came along (probably never will again) and no way was a stat going to influence my decision. The next race is always about who is in it and what they are up against, not what has happened in the past
     
    #122
    Reebok likes this.
  3. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
    Forum Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2011
    Messages:
    48,324
    Likes Received:
    15,500
    PS I will go along with your stats if you are looking for a long range ante-post because the facts are in your favour (ie at that stage we have no idea how good the horse will be as a 3yo. But that is also true of all 2yos, hence my total avoidance of backing 2yos for next year's classics. Never recovered from what were considered certs <ok>
     
    #123
  4. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2018
    Messages:
    2,737
    Likes Received:
    1,798
    It's fair enough if you think the stats are irrelevant Ron but I see some trainers as ones to avoid for ante post purposes.

    I'm looking at it purely from the point of view of anyone having a bet ante-post and on Quadrilateral at the current odds. In this scenario we don't know what the field will look like on the day, so we have to weigh up what evidence we do have and that, for me, includes looking at past events. I think it is folly to ignore historical patterns and statistics. If people believe strongly in a horse and want to take a chance at the odds with no other consideration then good luck to them. Sometimes a gut feeling is proven to be the right one.

    Anyway, Charlton says he favours the Oh So Sharp Stakes as her next race. She's not in the Fillies Mile, so that would be a £40,000 supplement which is obviously buttons for the owners in this instance. The trainer explained that he would probably stay at 7F for now and the Group 3 would be more likely. I don't think there will be much difference if they did opt for the Group 1 race because the talent is limited this season.

    A filly not mentioned so far is Freddy Head's Khayzaraan, a daughter of Kingman who was sent of favourite for a Deauville race at the end of July. Over the 6F that day she cut little ice in 9th place with a modest 60 rating from the Racing Post. Upped to a mile at the same venue a month later the punters retained the faith as she went off odds on and it was like chalk and cheese from her first start, as she travelled well before coming clear of her field by nine lengths. Kept reasonably low key at Chantilly next time she won by more than 4 lengths but did not improve her middle race rating of 92 much, with a new mark of 94. Obviously she could prove a lot better than her opponents thus far have allowed her to be rated but she impressed enough to become second favourite for the 1000 Guineas at 16/1.

    Like Quadrilateral, Khayzaraan is not of interest to me because of who the trainer is. Freddy Head is just not someone I associate with our Guineas. Like many French trainers he is far more likely to stay at home for the later run French version. For that reason she is a big pass for me as a Guineas bet at 16/1. If shw progresses she could be a big player at home though.
     
    #124
    Ron likes this.
  5. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
    Forum Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2011
    Messages:
    48,324
    Likes Received:
    15,500
    Gut feeling not in my vocabulary when it comes to punting. And ante-post betting on the classics when we only have 2yo form to on is the way to the poor house
     
    #125
  6. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2018
    Messages:
    2,737
    Likes Received:
    1,798
    I've probably been luckier than most with ante-post betting Ron.

    Sleepytime at 20/1 for the 1000 Guineas, Cape Verdi at 25/1 for the 1000 Guineas, Moonshell at 25/1 for the Oaks, Reams Of Verse at 12/1 for the Oaks, Taghrooda at 33/1 for the Oaks, Saxon Warrior at 20/1 in the 2000 Guineas and Ruler Of The World at 25/1 for the Derby are all successful ante-post bets I landed. Dushyantor 33/1 second, Daliapour 20/1 second and Just The Judge 20/1 second were narrow misses along with Secret Gesture at 25/1 when stablemate Talent shocked even the trainer in beating the much more fancied runner into second place. Saxon Warrior was a flop in the Derby when I had him ante-post at huge odds but that's Racing for you.

    Of course there are plenty of losers as well but big prices let you have a good few losing bets. I think the key is playing small at big odds before the cat is out of the bag and bookmakers have cut them to spartan levels of reward for the risks associated so far from the race. I enquired about Pinatubo for the 2000 Guineas after the Chesham and was offered 12/1 by the cashier but I didn't play based on Godolphin's recent record and the historical record of Woodcote winners. Pinatubo may prove to be an anomaly for the Epsom race but he's now reached a level where further improvement is not only very limited but also there could be regression towards the mean.
     
    #126
  7. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
    Forum Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2011
    Messages:
    48,324
    Likes Received:
    15,500
    That's pretty impressive. I hope you can keep it up. I wouldn't touch Pinatubo for the Derby. Haven't seen him run so it's not based on conformation, just a feeling that one so fast and having had 6 races as a 2yo, combined with his pedigree, won't win a 12f classic. As far as the Guineas is concerned, he could win it now with his inflated TF rating of 134. How can he be 134 already? Ridiculous. I'm beginning to think Timeform have lost it, even more so when I look at all the top ratings
     
    #127
  8. dylanthomas

    dylanthomas Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2011
    Messages:
    348
    Likes Received:
    233
    God knows the amount of other runners you backed in those races.
     
    #128
  9. Joe_z

    Joe_z Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2016
    Messages:
    370
    Likes Received:
    411
    Based on the work Grendel puts in (that is apparent in his posts) i would imagine he is in profit. Good on ye Grendel i for one look forward to your posts keep it up mate and good luck.
     
    #129
    Ron likes this.
  10. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2011
    Messages:
    5,202
    Likes Received:
    1,953
    Just some comments:-
    Let's face it for the last few years AOB and Gosden have monopolised the Classics. If you are not in that group you are up against it and most trainers are only going to take them on when they have something outstanding.

    Even Stoute has not trained a Classic winner since 2010. He has not trained a Guineas winner since 2003/4. Do you put a pencil line through his entries? You could view Stoute's dilemma being that he's got a name as a great trainer of ‘slow developing’ horses. So send your slow developers to Sir Michael, that's what he's best at, ergo he doesn't have Classic runners/winners. It's a self fulfilling prophecy and personally I believe an Albatross round Stoute's neck. Do you honestly believe Stoute is not capable of readying and training a Classic horse?

    Charlton is not as good a trainer as Stoute, I’d accept that, but he gets a bit of the same. He did a brilliant job with Al Kazeem (twice) and a pretty good job with Decorated Knight. If he had the right horses, like Stoute, he would have them ready.

    You use of the career of Fair Eva as a means of rubbishing Charlton but I can't agree with your comments. Your comments about the Lowther are wrong. She was 3rd, the 2nd was Roly Poly who was by no means a 5f horse and became an excellent miler as a 3yo.The winner had had only one prior race and yes that was over 5f, but she never won over 5f again and spent most of her time over 6f. She was a Fahey York special and that was her Guineas. You can't say 'she was done by two 5f fillies'.

    Fair Eva's next race was over 7f. Looked to me as if she didn't get home. So I don't know where your two jockeys comments came from: I certainly never heard them. Presumably they were her first 2 jockeys? If they were I'd doubt Charlton wouldn't have listened. Also that race was the Rockfel. I think Charlton knew she wasn't that good as he'd have gone for a better race if she was. This year there's a 3yo half-brother to Fair Eva who has run twice this season over 6f! Looks like a family of speed runners to me.

    Charlton railed against the Frankel hype in 2016. Remember Gosden's first winner who was Frankel reborn from what was said at the time (if you believed it)? You'd have lost a lot of money backing him after that initial win. Fair Eva was his equivalent. People are more balanced about Frankel now. But it was interesting that with Fair Eva it was Charlton saying that.

    Another interesting point about Fair Eva is that she's from the same family as Calyx. Their careers had similar profiles and came to little in the end. Maybe there's a weakness in this family. I don't think you can use Fair Eva as a justification by which to run down Charlton at all, and what you said doesn't hold water.

    If Quadrilateral is as good as she looked she could be a Guineas horse next year and Charlton would be fine to train her. She still looks green to me, but if she develops as she could she'll be ideal for the 1000G. Look at Friday's race again. When 4 are nearly abreast at the distance take a look at the heart room this filly has. She has an engine.

    Haggas disappoints me sometimes but you cannot argue with his wins to runs ratio which is usually the highest of what I'd call the top trainers. He'll have more Classic winners one day.

    I enjoy your posts on here, but you should remember like most of us you are probably wrong half the time.

    As if by order Charlton won a Group 1 the day after you printed this. It was a weak one but the horse ran well. I think the Charlton/Watson team are working well.
     
    #130

  11. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2018
    Messages:
    2,737
    Likes Received:
    1,798
    Bustino, If I was wrong only half the time I would be in clover. I reckon we are all wrong most of the time in Horse Racing. It's such an inexact science that we all end up with egg on our faces.

    I am probably one of the most consistent on this forum for holding my hands up after a selection has run and tried to put in an honest assessment of what went amiss with the horse or whether it just wasn't as good as I thought it could be. It's rare for me not to pass comment and offer analysis in the aftermath of a race, win or lose.

    Regarding Stoute, I had pretty much ruled him out from consideration for the Classics, particularly the Guineas, for a while now. He used to be excellent if he had a Derby sort but he hit the skids in quite a big way, going through a starvation period where only Estimate won a Group 1 race for the stable in long enough. I tend to avoid trainers who seem in the doldrums and who have not got a good record over their careers from my standpoint.

    Fair Eva is just one example and was used as she is a rare Guineas runner for the stable. Whatever happened long term I felt the Lowther was the wrong race for her given that the Guineas was the long term target. I could probably find the articles if I needed to dig deep but you can rest assured I am 100 % telling the truth regarding the jockeys advice. Ryan Moore was one of the jockey's who said to Charlton that he felt the filly needed 7F now and Frankie Dettori was the other.

    I followed Fair Eva's career on almost a daily basis because I had selected her from a long list of Frankel progeny as one with interesting possibilities. The filly's developments were followed closely by a group of members on another forum and I was a big contributor to the debate. Other writers at the time criticised that Pat Smullen was the third jockey in three races to get the leg up on Fair Eva and others at the time felt that a big concern from an ante-post standpoint was Charlton's record in both Guineas.

    One horse mentioned during that debate was Three Valleys, who won the Coventry for Charlton by 8 lengths and was swiftly made a short priced favourite for the 2000 Guineas afterwards. Three Valleys is somehow recorded as a chestnut Mare on the ATR database but he met with a setback next time when beaten 4 lengths in the Phoenix Stakes in Ireland at odds of 4/6. He went on to be 4th but disqualified in the Middle Park before an excellent head second to Milk It Mick in the Dewhurst.

    The next season Three Valleys was second in the Craven but beaten a long way behind Haafhd. He went on to the Guineas but as a 20/1 outsider and was well in arrears. Transferred to Bobby Frankel he did win some races in the USA and the overall conclusion has to be disappointment that a horse who was once a hot favourite for a Classic got to the race but was beaten 20 lengths on the day. It would be the same irregardless of who the trainer was.

    I am not trying to rubbish Charlton's career, I am merely observing his record in the Guineas and considering whether Quadrilateral is a value bet for the 1000 next spring. Equally, William Haggas has an excellent strike rate but how many trainers would have the same record if able to point horses costing hundreds of thousands of pounds at class 4 maiden races?

    The two trainers may win other classics in the future but that is not the point I was making. I am merely talking about Quadrilateral here and whether she is a good bet for the 1000 Guineas at current odds. If other horses trained by the same trainer(s) come into the equation I would apply the same reasoning when considering their relative value.

    We are all wrong a whole lot of the time and I will be wrong plenty more times before long. My aim is to try to think not just which horse will win but why they will win and equally which horses will not win and why they probably won't.
     
    #131
    Bustino74 and OddDog like this.
  12. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2018
    Messages:
    2,737
    Likes Received:
    1,798
    That Group 1 Charlton won was in Germany and the racing there is not great from my viewpoint. The favourite for that race was 3rd and was previously 14 lengths behind Ghaiyyath. The horse is probably a shade overrated on 106 and he didn't do a lot for the Godolphin Arc prospect Ghaiyyath.

    Quadrilateral is an exciting prospect and I look forward to seeing her again next month.

    We tend to have favoured trainers as race watchers and they are an odd mix of characters who can quite often be blinkered regarding the horses they train. I recently read quite a bit of hype regarding Cepheus, trained by Brian Meehan. For a start the pet hate tag of "Unbeaten", when describing a once raced horse, was well to the fore. Unbeaten for horses like Frankel, Black Caviar and Winx are one thing but I feel it should not be applied to horses who are 1 for 1 on the racecourse. The gist of the article is that Cepheus had a dirty scope and is just back cantering. Meehan has said the colt may not race again this year but could still possibly have one race this season and the trainer further stated that he is not afraid of taking on Pinatubo, on the basis that "Whatever runs is obviously good enough to run"

    Has Brian Meehan paid any attention at all to Pinatubo's form? Cepheus has a RPR of 84 while Pinatubo has an RPR of 128. I doubt Charlie Appleby is quaking but Cepheus is 66/1 for the Dewhurst if Meehan is confident.

    In the Middle Park Earthlight is solidifying at 2/1 after open JF with Mum's Tipple at 5/2. Andre Fabre has said he is not sure if Earthlight's action will be suited to Newmarket but his form is more solid with Raffle Prize being one of the best fillies this season, A'Ali won next time and even the Morny last Devil won a group 3 next time. Mum's Tipple is all about the one romp that was an exceptional margin of 11 lengths. In my experience these "Freak" margin wins tend not to work out long term and I have been with Earthlight thus far and stood with him here at 5/2 before I read Fabre's reservations regarding the track. Should be a two horse race really, I am not convinced by Siskin's form strength in depth.
     
    #132
  13. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2018
    Messages:
    2,737
    Likes Received:
    1,798
    He does indeed and he also knows the amount of winners I had.

    I forgot to mention Galileo Gold who was a pre-season saver for me at 40/1 when he won the Guineas. Nice saver that one. I can provide the link to the article I wrote at the time if anyone needs to see it.
     
    #133
  14. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
    Forum Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2011
    Messages:
    48,324
    Likes Received:
    15,500
    What a poor renewal that was. I don't think there was one half decent horse in the race. They were probably all 40/1 before the season started. Airforce Blue, typical AOB hype horse was odds on and managed to beat 7 horses home in his 4 runs as a 3yo. You did well to pick that one, or did you just eliminate all the others
     
    #134
  15. Sir Barney Chuckles

    Sir Barney Chuckles Who Dares Wins

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2011
    Messages:
    5,708
    Likes Received:
    2,169
    Fair Eva ran in the Lowther rather than the Moyglare against the advice given by Frankie Dettori to the trainer after the ‘Princess Margaret’ (you are correct in saying it was reported that Dettori said she needed 7 f). But here is a question for you. Who is the Chairman of the Racecourse that the Lowther is run at. That and that alone is the reason that Fair Eva ran in the Lowther rather than the Moyglare or any other contest at that time. The decision had zero to do with Mr Charlton. You may not think this was the correct decision, and I certainly don’t, but that is why she ran there.
     
    #135
    Bustino74 and Ron like this.
  16. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2011
    Messages:
    5,202
    Likes Received:
    1,953
    Thanks SBC, that’s useful info. Obviously my point is that Dettori may not have been right as I don’t believe she stayed 7f.
     
    #136
  17. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2011
    Messages:
    5,202
    Likes Received:
    1,953
    Middle Park looks a good race, Cheveley Park looks a rerun of the Cherry Hinton with some AOB added but the Royal Lodge looks very weak. They should return it to Berkshire.
     
    #137
  18. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2011
    Messages:
    28,577
    Likes Received:
    10,380
    I'm actually really looking forward to the Middle Park - first race that has caught my imagination this flat season with a seriously deep field and fair play to all connections for sending their charges.
     
    #138
    Bustino74 likes this.
  19. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2018
    Messages:
    2,737
    Likes Received:
    1,798
    That season I had backed Air Force Blue at 20/1 and then again at 12/1. I started looking for cover on those bets and weighing it up I felt Galileo Gold had a good chance in an otherwise open year apart from the favourite. When I read that Air Force Blue was to wear a tongue tie in the Guineas my heart sank. I voiced my concerns and advised people against taking a short price on Guineas day. All Spring it seemed that all we heard was what a monster Air Force Blue had grown into over the Winter and how well everything had gone. Why the sudden need for a tongue tie then? Most debaters at the time felt that O'Brien was just covering the bases with the tongue tie but I was concerned why they needed to reach for an aid on a horse who hadn't needed it. His subsequent efforts showed why there was concern and that the reality was that the horse had not trained on.

    I found my original posts from the lead up to the 2000 Guineas and this was what I wrote on the 25th March 2016:-

    "Galileo Gold seems a decent call each-way at 40/1, certainly compared to Ultra at half those odds when that one won’t be coming over. Hugo Palmer stated in January that Galileo Gold had put on 70 kilos and really thrived physically since last seen. He is in the running for all three Guineas with the ground the key to where he will turn up. The colt doesn’t want fast ground and the trainer expanded on plans by stating that Galileo Gold is a clean winded horse who probably won’t run in any of the trials."

    The previous year I had written this:-

    "Richard Fahey’s Ribchester just put up a taking performance in the Mill Reef and he looks a colt who will fill out over the winter and develop into a Guineas contender. I was looking at the betting for the Classic before the race but he wasn’t quoted."

    I then updated it as follows:-

    "He has entered the Guineas betting with a few firms and I thought the 33/1 offered was worth a little bit each-way. There are worse bets in my opinion.

    Ribchester each-way 33/1 to keep the winter fire burning."

    1st and 3rd was a good return and more than paid for the bigger, losing, bets on Air Force Blue.

    Some people don't like the fact that you put up more than one pick for an ante-post bet but I feel that when you are selecting bigger prices such as 33/1 shots it is not only acceptable but probably sensible to have some cover. It would be hard to find a double carpet priced winner in the Classics with only one dart and sometimes your original pick gets injured or exposes itself as not good enough, leaving you to conclude that the bet is as good as lost. I would rather play it my way, than suffer the fate of those who waited until Guineas day and lumped on Air Force One at 4/5 Fav and watched him trail in like a leaking barge.
     
    #139
  20. Grade One

    Grade One Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2017
    Messages:
    2,770
    Likes Received:
    1,932
    Big drifter and unplaced, but showed some ability

    Runs on turf tomorrow [1.35 Chester] so small each way play at 11-1 [Skybet]
     
    #140

Share This Page