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2YO Horses To Note 2019 Flat Season

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by Grendel, Jun 9, 2019.

  1. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Must say I wasn’t addressing Ascot but more the title of the thread.
     
    #21
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  2. Chaninbar

    Chaninbar The Crafty Cockney

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    Apologies Bustino I didn't read the exam question properly (not for the first time) and got distracted by the posts talking about Ascot targets and wasted AP vouchers. I can't see a single Haggas 2 yo entry at Ascot next week so my post was neither relevant to this thread or his recent poor Royal Ascot record.
     
    #22
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  3. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Threat has halved in price with 365, now 7/2.
     
    #23
  4. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Some of those prominent in the Coventry betting are no longer in the race. Visinari and Siskin have defected from the field and quite a few have tightened up a bit in the market. Some money for Guildsman in the Coventry and with the going good to soft/soft places at Ascot, you could see why the soft ground winner would have generally halved in price from 12/1 earlier.

    I notice that Lope Y Fernandez is in from 5/2 to Evens for the Chesham but the horse who was 3rd to him ran at Gowran Park today and got thumped by a newcomer from the Halford yard. Mythologic had been beaten an easy five lengths by Lope Y Fernandez, so it's hardly fatal from a form point of view but if backing at Even money you would have been looking for a win today to boost the form. Coolmore paid 900,000 Euros for Lope Y Fernandez and Aidan O'Brien described him as a "Nice prospect". No doubt if he was by Coolmore's Gallileo the trainer would have been a bit more fulsome with the praise.
     
    #24
  5. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    I wasnt worried about the soft ground for Kimari as her high knee action strongly suggested she would handle it, but just been done by Dettori, swap the jockeys swap the result imo.
     
    #25
  6. Paulpowersleftfoot

    Paulpowersleftfoot Well-Known Member

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    Haggas winner today
     
    #26
  7. Chaninbar

    Chaninbar The Crafty Cockney

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    And yesterday (Addeybb).
     
    #27
  8. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Sunday Sovereign is popular in the Norfolk Stakes. His win from Arizona was boosted in the Coventry and he sluiced home last time out. There is dubiety about the ground at Tipperary because the ATR website records it as FAST, while the Racing Post website says it was SOFT. Go figure eh?

    Sunday Sovereign got a good speed of 93 for that win and he is top rated even if allowing nothing for the fact that he beat a Coventry winner in a 6F race. His trainer quickly stated that the Norfolk would be Sunday Sovereign's target and I think he has a lot in his favour tomorrow. I am surprised to see A'Ali put up by the Timeform man on ATR. The Crisford colt was runner up in a class 5 Ripon Novice race and although the 1-2 were miles clear it is a race that hasn't looked much cop and going from that to Group 2 at Royal Ascot is a huge leap and I saw A'Ali at 11/2 tonight. I took 11/2 on Sunday Sovereign and I hope that proves a better bet.
     
    #28
  9. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Question is, how much did Arizona improve to his 2nd and then 3rd run, not sure you can take that form literally and Arizona would have been heavily favoured to reverse it in the Coventry but in a weak looking Norfolk, Sunday Sovereign has a solid chance.
     
    #29
  10. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Ventura Rebel looks a fair value to me at 12/1, hes not flashy but interesting that Velazquez was going to ride Lady Pauline over Kimari who ran well in the Queen Mary and he beat her over the course and distance. I think he will handle the ground and will finish strongly. Faheys 2yos have been running quite well so far without really threatening, couple of 6th place only beaten a few lengths. I think this looks the weakest of the 2yo Group races and I also think Ventura Rebel is the best of his 2yo team.
     
    #30

  11. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Had a feeling people were taking that Arizona form way too literally, Arizona obviously left that debut hands and heels effort well behind, and I didn't see the benefit of that egg and spoon race 2 weeks ago for Sunday Soveriegn, ended up ridiculously short.

    My ascot 2yo bets.

    Threat 7/1, Kimari 10/1, Ventura Rebel 16/1

    Neck, hd, neck, beaten by Moore and Dettori, all 3 swap the jockey swap the result imo.
     
    #31
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  12. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    I thought Sunday Sovereign needed to come forward about 5 lbs today. I felt that was possible but in the end he's gone backwards by quite a chunk on the day.

    I backed him at 11/2 partly because he seemed sure to start shorter if Arizona went close or won the Coventry. It was always the case that Sunday Sovereign was going to be a 2YO and not a 3YO
    Very hard lines not to collect on a couple of those bets at least. Most years it would be unlikely that all three would get pipped.

    My main hopes missed the meeting but I was pleased with the efforts of Liberty Beach from her poor draw and Guildsman in the Coventry. Sunday Sovereign was a washout though. His trainer sounded very positive before the race and the colt had progressed from 74 to 97 the day he defeated Arizona. Next time out he only went up 6 lbs in a poor race to a RPR of 103. I felt he probably needed another 5 to 7 lbs improvement to land the Norfolk and there seemed reason to believe that was possible. With winner A'Ali being awarded 107 for landing the Norfolk the projected figures seem to tie in but the reality was that Sunday Sovereign ran to a 15 lbs lower mark on a RPR of 88. Not only is that less than his best but it is also 9 lbs lower than when he beat Arizona. That is not a case of failing to progress but simply a stinking run.

    Sunday Sovereign has entries in the Railway Stakes and Phoenix Stakes but there is next to no chance of seeing him in either race. The trainer will probably want to get to the bottom of the below par effort and find a winnable 5F race. He stopped dramatically quickly in the Norfolk and the jockey's explanation that the colt ran too free hardly seems to cover that poor an effort. Ventura Rebel lost his left hind shoe, so that was extra hard luck with him.

    Lope Y Fernandez is my Guineas horse and main 2YO interest of the week. I thought he looked a bit special last time and he has that valuable 7F form. I much prefer 2YO horses to have won at 7F or a mile at 2YO and Ten Sovereigns became another example of 6F 2YO's not making it in the Guineas. Lope Y Fernandez is still 33/1 for the 2000 Guineas and I feel he is much better value at those odds than Arizona at 14/1, given the margins in the Coventry and the recent record of Coventry winners. The race had similar margins to the previous Coventry and that did not pan out for any of the 1-2-3, with Sergei Prokofiev and Calyx going sprinting and Advertise having an abortive Guineas attempt before also going sprinting. I have read one or two others who feel that Lope Y Fernandez is going to come forward a lot from his first run and perhaps be capable of top class form. We'll find out tomorrow and I hope to see a performance that leaves him as the new favourite for the 2000 Guineas. I'll stick another 35p on at double carpet today :D
     
    #32
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  13. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    Thought I would get in first and nominate Pinatubo.

    That was really impressive in the Chesham putting the Ballydoyle colt in his place without being given a hard time.

    Backers today probably got the biggest price it will be for the rest of the season.
     
    #33
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  14. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Long time since a Woodcote winner was any good. Any advances on My Swallow?
     
    #34
  15. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    I thought Daayeh was impressive yesterday.
     
    #35
    Last edited: Jun 22, 2019
  16. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    No, that will be the last time it threw up a really good one. It is one of those races that just does not fit with present day planning by trainers. If you go back sixty years ago there are some names; and obviously if you go back to the nineteenth century.

    If I were looking at an ante post ticket for the 2020 Guineas, I would be more bothered that they will ship it out to Dubai for the winter and it will end up a no-show at HQ; or it will not make it to the end of the 2019 campaign fit.

    With it wanting seven furlongs in June, the plan for the rest of the season is really obvious with so few options before September.
     
    #36
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  17. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    I reckon Lope Y Fernandez would have won the average Chesham but Pinatubo looked well out of the ordinary there. The Godolphin colt simply had that kick that the O'Brien horse could not answer.

    After the weather at Ascot leading to Cheltenham conditions earlier in the week the ground had dried out to the extent that Pinatubo broke the juvenile track record and recorded a Topspeed figure of 105 in the process. For me he was the 2YO of the week but the Racing Post awarded him 108 compared to Arizona on 110 for the Coventry. Visually Pinatubo was way more impressive, having looked the winner from a long way out, whereas Arizona was bumped along from a fair way out and only got the job done fairly narrowly. I would be looking with Arizona on 108 and Pinatubo on 113 for now.

    The question with Pinatubo is whether he is precocious and if the fast race in the Chesham leaves a mark. Buratino was a Woodcote winner for Mark Johnston. Having bolted up at Epsom Buratino had the legs of Air Force Blue in the Coventry stakes but the O'Brien horse comprehensively got his revenge in the Phoenix Stakes in August, where Buratino was 11/10 Fav. I had 20/1 for Air Force Blue in the 2000 Guineas and he went on to impress further as the season went on but he did not train on as a 3YO. Buratino however did not win another race in his career after that Woodcote win.

    Hopefully Pinatubo will be fine but sometimes Godolphin seem to push their horses quite hard as 2YO's and then we see them line up with poor hands in the early Classics the following season.

    O'Brien said he was happy with Lope Y Fernandez given that the horse only debuted 15 days prior to the Chesham. He indicated that the colt was still a big baby and that they might leave his next run until a bit later in the season. The trainer felt the 7F trip was fine but that his colt would go further in time. The feeling was that the Superlative may come a bit soon as a target.

    The Vintage Stakes at Goodwood and the National Stakes at the Curragh were nominated as likely targets for Pinatubo going forward.
     
    #37
  18. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Forgot to mention the Guineas odds.

    Pinatubo is a best price of 12/1, with a few firms going an unappealing 8/1. Lope Y Fernandez varies between 16/1 and 25/1 across the board. A few firms cut the O'Brien horse despite the defeat, something unlikely to have happened with any other trainer's horse after getting beaten.

    The next race for Lope Y Fernandez will be vital. It's a must win scenario you would think. He came out of the Chesham with a RPR of 100 and Churchill was rated exactly the same for winning a bit narrowly in his year. Churchill was unspectacular next time out but he kept winning right up to the Dewhurst and ended the season on 121. Churchill had 27 days between races 1 and 2, so Lope Y Fernandez has to be put into perspective running 15 days after his maiden. He needs to keep stepping up now.
     
    #38
  19. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Sunday Sovereign is moving to be trained in Britain. Apparently the owners had said he would only stay in Ireland if he won at Royal Ascot, so his fate was sealed early in the Norfolk. Hard to think that running free was an acceptable excuse for such a poor run in a 5F race where they are pretty much going full tilt anyway.

    Johnny Drama is headed to the UK as well. He was also on a "win or move" deal and he also weakened badly in his race. He is moving to Andrew Balding to be trained now.
     
    #39
  20. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    One horse I was disappointed not to see at Ascot was Repartee. I was at York the day he won onhis debut. He looked magnificent in the paddock and continued that impression in the race which he won easily (must admit the form hasn't worked out that well). Maybe he'll turn up at Newmarket.
    He's by Invincible Spirit out of a Johannesburg sister to Kingman, so is closely bred to that fine racehorse and sire.
     
    #40

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