He had a beautiful trip in an incredibly weak race and the time was over 2 seconds slower than the C+D class 6 handicap won by the 61 rated Star of Valour. They wont run him on anything other than soft with that action either. Bit like their impressive back end all weather winner last season that some were touting for the Derby, was never a Derby horse in a million years, 20/1 is a complete and utter joke and anyone even considering that should seek help immediately, really a sign of how bad antepost betting is getting, horse should be at least 66s.
Looking back, Jack Hobbs also made his debut in a class 5 Wolverhampton race. He ran even later in the year, on 27th December. Laughed at in most camps as a Derby possible, he ultimately finished second to Golden Horn at Epsom, before winning the Irish Derby. In another year he might have made his debut in January and not met as good a horse as Golden Horn at Epsom. Enable didn't make her debut until 28th November and she ended up winning the Oaks, so there has been an increase in good horses debuting after the traditional Flat season has finished.
Dont remember anyone laughing at Jack Hobbs, his debut was quite remarkable the way he won it, the runner up ended up reaching a rating of 90 on the AW and the 3rd went on to be placed in a G2 in America, the time was also about 3 seconds faster than Waldkonig. Waldkonig is obviously another good horse from the dam but he wont be winning the Derby.
I see Simon Rowlands has done an analysis on Waldkonig's sectional performance. He explains that just relying on the overall time in a slowly run race is misleading. That's fairly obvious in itself, but knowing the closing sectional times reveals more. My own visual take on the race was that a stronger pace would have resulted in not just a faster time but also a bigger margin win for Waldkonig. Simon Rowlands has Waldkonig clocking 11.24s for the penultimate furlong and 11.27s for the final furlong. The final furlong was rated 39th from 15,000 races at the course (All ages and all distances) while the final two furlongs combined was the 55th fastest from those same 15,000 races. The upshot of Simon Rowlands' adjusted rating from the sectional analysis is that Waldkonig is rated 106 by him and that takes into account that he probably beat weak opposition. The Racing Post awarded a RPR of 94 to Waldkonig and that is a good enough figure to begin with in itself. Derby favourite Pinatubo also started his career at Wolverhampton and was rated 87 on RPR's for that performance over 6F. There is a fair bit to prove for Pinatubo regarding the Derby trip and we don't exactly have many colts crying out "Derby Winner" at the moment. Simply looking at times and comparing them to other races is a sure way to get the wrong end of the stick on many occasions.
Were you not against sectionals last year when going on about that wide margin newmarket maiden winner who got found out up in grade? I specifically discussed that horse with Simon Rowlands and he confirmed my suspicion that the race collapsed and the sectionals were nothing special. Good to see you have come round to their significance, at least that is when it suits your position. We are in complete agreement, it also likely goes without saying that a fast closing sectional achieved off a notably slow pace, is worth less the same achieved off a strong pace. What it does usually show is that a horse is not short of speed, as we saw in the case of Space Blues last season when impressive in a notably slow run mile race. He turned out to be a 7f horse and it was his superior speed against middle distance types in what was effectively a sprint finish which created the striking impression. Waldkonigs final 3 furlong sectional was virtually identical to that clocked by the 98 rated Getchagetchagetcha over 1m4 later on the card, so while it marks him out as a very good debut winner, and long odds on a 3 figure horse, im not a fully paid up subscriber to him being a superstar just yet, and given his ability to be so effective off such a slow pace, as in the case of Space Blues, it could add further concern for his prospects of staying 12f, which is already questionable given the sire. Likely a group horse in the making but not for me as a Derby prospect.
This reminds me of me when I was at school. I had never run in a 800 metre race but I had speed and I was the best cross country runner at the school, so, for some reason they put me in to represent the school over 800 metres in the County schools sports. They thought my strong finish over the final 200 yards would be enough but they went off at a pace I wasn't used to and I got found out; embarrassingly so. My experience has always stuck in my mind and made me very wary of horses winning impressively in slow times. If they can also win in fast times then I can start to feel impressed
Noticed the article in the Bloodstock section of the RP today, titled 'Horses that run as 2yos are less at risk of injury'. Some food for thought in these comments:- 'Among his findings is that horses who have been campaigned as juveniles are less likely than their older counterparts to sustain career-ending injuries. Parkin, who has worked in his chosen field for more than 20 years, posited that the [developed] skeletal strength of horses raced at two helps prevent injuries at a later stage'. 'Noting a decrease in the percentage of fatal injuries in the US in recent years, Parkin pointed to factors such as horses being prepared earlier on as two-year-olds, horses staying with the same trainers for longer, horses being raced less intensively, and a reduction in the number of races over sprint distances'. Interesting stuff
'Noting a decrease in the percentage of fatal injuries in the US in recent years, Parkin pointed to factors such as horses being prepared earlier on as two-year-olds, horses staying with the same trainers for longer, horses being raced less intensively, and a reduction in the number of races over sprint distances'. That sounds very reasonable but the other statement is rather rash and, without qualification, could be contradictory 'Among his findings is that horses who have been campaigned as juveniles are less likely than their older counterparts to sustain career-ending injuries. Parkin, who has worked in his chosen field for more than 20 years, posited that the [developed] skeletal strength of horses raced at two helps prevent injuries at a later stage'.
