2YO Horses To Note 2019 Flat Season

had to laugh when this came on earlier

 

Some reasonable fillies have won the Duchess of Montrose Stakes but as Grendel reminds us races on heavy ground at this time of year may not mean much. However I was quite taken with the FTO win of Born with Pride in today's renewal. It's rare for debutants to run in this class of race and Born to Pride was not given a particularly hard race even if she only won by a neck. Owned by the Tse family and by their own-bred sire Born to Sea she is attractively bred. Her dam is by Monsun out of a half-sister to Ghanaati. So she's from the Nashwan/Deep Impact family. Interesting mixture of stamina and speed, I'm sure she'll be put away now but if wintering well could be an improver aimed at the Oaks.

 

Wide margin winners continue to flatter to deceive. Kinross was the latest example.

It was softish ground when Kinross scooted home by eight lengths on debut and he was given a big first time rating of 101. In these situations you have to laugh when pundits say that the from is franked by a runner up who went on to win a 6F 3 grand Novice race at odds of 2/5 Fav. It doesn't stop punters from wading in next time on the winner though, even when they are going straight to Group 1 company, from Novice class, and also taking to a surface and trip that they have never met before.

My input is based on more than 30 years of observation and while it is not a high percentage in terms of finding winners, I believe firmly that it is a high percentage in terms of finding poor value bets, particularly in terms of short priced horses.

Looking at Born With Pride, she made an encouraging debut but given the ground and previous form coming into the race, I have to raise my eyebrows at a RPR if 101 for the race. Runner-Up and favourite Peaceful had come in rated 88 and it's a bit of a stretch for me to believe we can rely on the O'Brien horse having improved 13 lbs. The third home Run Wild came in with an OR of 105 but she has had a mixed bag of a season, looking now't special before a runaway win. She has been busy for a Gosden filly, with six runs and her runner up spot behind Pocket Square in a weak looking French Group 3 run on awful, heavy, ground where the winning time was more than 14 seconds slow. Pocket Square received a new RPR increased by 24 lbs and those sorts of rises always concern me, especially given that Pocket Square went up by only 8 lbs between her first two runs on Good To Firm ground. The Heavy ground form looks a potential anomoly for now.

I recall Irish Rookie winning the Montrose back in the day and I had an each-way on her for the 1000 Guineas at 66/1. I also had Jellicle Ball each-way at 40/1 and Fadhayyil at 25/1 in the same Guineas but won zero, as they all disappointed on the day. I did get some back with Irish Rookie in the French Guineas at 25/1 each-way and she ran some good races in top class events. Her poor efforts were almost always on fast ground and I will always wonder if she might have run a better race in the Newmarket Guineas had conditions been more akin to when she ran in the Montrose (4.69s slow) rather than Guineas day (0.4sec fast)

The question for Born With Pride will be her Montrose time of (8.29s slow) and whether she can show form when it is riding faster. Her sire Born To Sea standa at a modest 4000 Euros and her dam has been kept to Sea The Stars up until now, with Raheen House being the best of those matings to date.

 

With the turf flat season over and a break in the all-weather flat this week I thought I’d think about the 2020 Derby on this thread. Early this year Stick said ‘3yos who are unraced as 2yos don’t win the Epsom Derby’. He wasn’t right (and he knew he wasn't) but as I said then I knew what he was saying. As a betting proposition in the Derby, a 3yo who has not run as a 2yo, is not a good one. I think I can safely say that. A lot of you will be saying ‘oh no not again, not this old chestnut’ , well ‘fraid so but I do want to take this a bit further as I’ve been thinking about this ‘effect’, what was said earlier this year and what could be against an unraced 2yo winning a Derby at Epsom racecourse in early June.

So the facts: In the last 100 years (in fact in the whole history of the Derby) only 4 horses have won the Epsom Derby, who did not race as 2yos. They were; Bois Roussel (1938), Morston (1973), Commander in Chief (1993) and Ruler of the World(2013) [It is worth pointing out that the last 3 of these were rated ‘inferior’ Derby winners, the other was not rated]. Plenty of hoses have tried, although the point was made that not that not as many horses that start at Epsom qualify as unraced 2yos. That is true, but as I said I want to take this a bit further. Nobody is stopping owners/trainers from running a horse in the Derby who didn’t run as 2yos: it is a fact that not so many choose to.

So the hypothesis is that unraced 2yos are highly unlikely to win the Epsom Derby. If you were a pharmacist or a social scientist and you were used to using significance tests to establish whether there is a real effect or a random effect within a set of data, and you were asked to look at the data available for this unraced 2yo effect I believe you would accept the hypothesis as being correct as you have a 95% confidence level. Now the response may be the one I have mentioned that not so many actually run in the race. To me that is just one of the reasons why the figure is so low and not a cause. You will see later that I take this further.

So let’s move on. Someone said on one thread, when this was being discussed, that a horse lining up for the Derby doesn’t know he was unraced as a 2yo. Now I’m very fond of this kind of statement. You hear it said that ‘the favourite never wins this race’ or ‘a horse that has won race A never wins race B’, and for many of these particular statements the reasoning is bogus and the response that a horse doesn’t know it’s running in race B and that it’s run in race A is apt. But in this case I think the reasoning is ill-founded. While a horse that is running in the Derby has not got a memory of the dates he raced, he has had the ‘experience’ of his preparation for the Derby. If he was unraced as a 2yo, in effect, it is the experience of a much shorter preparation for his Derby attempt. An example of just this is this year’s 'unraced 2yo' Sir Dragonet. His first race was a winning debut on the 25th April and his second race was 13 days later when he won the Chester Vase. Yet barely 3 weeks later he was backed down to 11/4 to win the Epsom Derby. People talk on here about the health (mental as well as physical) wellbeing of horses, yet even some of these seem willing to accept that a horse in little over 5 weeks could go from an unraced maiden with no racecourse experience to a horse being capable of winning the unique test of the Epsom Derby. Yes it can happen and did happen, but it is challenging a horse’s mental and physical constitution to get him to the peak of his breed in 5-6 weeks of racecourse experience.

Let’s take this point further and look at the subsequent records of the 4 winners. Bois Roussel ran just once (3rd) after winning the Derby, Morston did not run again, Commander in Chief did run twice and actually won a weak Irish Derby but his season was over by August 1st, while Ruler of World did run several times after winning his Derby. After several disappointing efforts he at last won (another race) the Arc trial, the Prix Foy, as a 4yo. Not a very inspiring record for this particular set of horses that have won the UK’s premier classic. Then look at Sir Dragonet’s subsequent runs. He ran twice after Epsom with his best performance being a well-beaten 4th in the St Leger. Now further food for thought; the winner of that Leger was a horse who first ran in February and then won a maiden in May, a Novice event in June, a good handicap in July and the Voltigeur in August. He did not run as a 2yo but was not hurried as a 3yo and turned out a better horse, I believe, thanks to that.

So my further thought is that not only are you tilting at the ring by preparing an unraced (2yo) horse for the Derby but you may be in the process of damaging the future career of that horse. I think it’s no coincidence that the two UK/IRE trained Derby winners that were the best I’ve seen in my lifetime were Mill Reef (6 races as a 2yo) and Sea the Stars (3 races as a 2yo). Even one (even running down the field) race as a 2yo is far better for a Derby horse than trying to run 3 times in little over 6 weeks.

It could be viewed as slightly different now as we have AW racing. So horses can run up to the 31st December. But we’ve had AW racing for 30 years yet have had only two unraced winners in that time and neither of them took advantage of the all-weather. So it may happen more, but I’ll stick with my thoughts until proven wrong. A lot of you will disagree with me I know. This is not a slight on horses that don’t race as 2yos, I’m talking up to this point uniquely from the perspective of winning the Derby. Some horses are just too immature to run as a 2yo. Some are injured as 2yos and can’t run.

However it does strike me that if you look at the 10 best racehorses since the 2nd World war (Tudor Minstrel, Abernant, Ribot, Sea Bird, Nijinsky, Brigadier Gerard, Mill Reef, Shergar, Dancing Brave, Sea the Stars, Frankel: a reasonable list if actually 11!) all of them raced as 2yos. Not sure exactly why that should be (could be to do with having a ‘spaced’ career rather than a ‘rushed’ 3yo career). Perhaps that will change as more 10f to 12f races for older horses continue to be the key Pattern races, rather than the Classic races. But it’s also worth saying that all the key sires of the last 50 years ran as 2yos. Perhaps the fact that about 40% of racehorses only run as 2yos and 3yos has something to do with that. It suggests that a world where horses could only become sires if they did not run as 2yos would produce a different kind of racehorse and be disruptive to racing as we know it. Just think, one of the most influential sires of the current era is Danzig and he only ran as a 2yo.

So in 6 weeks I’ll be able to say that I’m 95% certain we’ve seen next year’s Derby winner. In fact, it’s highly likely he’s run already isn’t it? Well who is he then?

 

Was very impressed by Highest Ground for Stoute, not quite as impressive as Workforce on debut but he looked a bit of a monster, not achieved much on paper but have a feeling he could be high class and im backing him at 50/1.

 

Good post Bustino. Sound logic, as usual. I'm sure you are right in saying that by the end of the year one can say with a 95% confidence level (maybe higher) that next year's Derby winner will have been seen on a racecourse. What may be interesting is that all the factual evidence is historic and, with improving training facilities and methods and the introduction of AW surfaces more suitable for horses, may not be an indicator for the future. Of course, in earlier years we didn't have until the end of the year to see a 2yo in action. Enable, a lovely specimen, wasn't introduced to the racecourse until November (on the AW) and in old currency she would not have been seen as a 2yo. OK she won the Oaks, not the Derby, but she was the best 3yo and she is still going. Apart from the crowd noise, can a horse tell the difference between racing in public and having a gallop with other horses not in a scheduled meeting? Trainers can give their horses racing experience without being entered in races. Late maturers don't have to be raced on soft winter ground as they can run on the AW; something they can do away from the racecourse

You mention Sir Dragonet may have been ruined by running too many major races over too short a period. I agree and I also think that a horse of that size should not have been running at Epsom; that may well have been his undoing

You make a valid point about the mental preparation. I think to some extent this will depend on the temperament of the horse. Enable is not only a lovely physical specimen but also has a wonderful temperament

I haven't checked but I think some of the top 3yos recently were not seen out until late in the season

It is interesting that some of the best 3yos ran several times as 2yos. All I can think of here is that the Derby is run in June at which time all the horses in the race are only just over 3years of age, all still immature and one has to win

I do wonder why many of the Derby winners are put away to stud and not seen as 4yos. Money of course. But is there also an element of doubt that if they raced as 4yos they could be exposed to the late maturers (and therefore lose value at stud)

Apologies for straying off the subject

From an ante post betting viewpoint I agree with the implication that it would be foolish to back an unraced 2yo. By the time the Derby comes round I am still of the opinion that the best horse should win, regardless of whether it raced as a 2yo; but I suspect, with the extended season, due to improved AW racing, there will be an increase in horses that are introduced later in the year and therefore even fewer unraced 2yos running in the Derby. Therefore, by the 1st January it is probably more like 99% certain that the Derby winner will have been seen on a racecourse as a 2yo

As you say, Which one is it?

I think we have to look at pedigrees, the conformation of the horse, it's racing style and the extent to which we think it will improve from its 2yo run(s)

Here's a question. How many top rated 2yos have gone on to win the Derby in the last 20 years?

And another (over the same period). As a 2yo, how many pounds was the winner of the Derby below the top rated 2yo?

 

I wouldn't be so quick to rule out colts who didn't race in 2019.

I brought the subject up last season and we had a debate about it. In the end it was the well raced Anthony Van Dyck who prevailed narrowly in a mediocre renewal, where two packets of Rizla covered the first five home. I reckon we are being a bit hasty and quick to forget that an unraced at 2YO colt went off favourite for the Derby and an unraced at 2YO colt went off the narrow 3rd Fav in the betting.

Sir Dragonet was 11/4 favourite in the Derby and Telecaster was 5/1. Only Broome on 9/2 was stopping the leading pair being unraced at 2YO colts.

11/4 and 5/1 represent 26% and 16% respectively in a 100% book and combined at 42% make for slightly less than 6/4 as a pairing. Those odds told the story about how poor a regard the colts who did race as 2YO's were held in.

If Aidan O' Brien had had a really solid contender or two genuine decent chances in the Derby I reckon he would not have run Sir Dragonet at Epsom. As things stood he seemed to have a handful of contenders who were much of a muchness and therefore the thinking was that perhaps Sir Dragonet was their only unexposed colt open to improving past the others on Derby Day. In the end it never happened and perhaps the gamble didn't pay off to the detriment of Sir Dragonet's long term career.

The Coolmore operation has a huge amount of wastage in terms of well bred horses even getting to the racecourse and there is a massive proportion who will never be much cop in terms of talent. They don't train to maximise each horse's potential and if Sir Dragonet HAD won the Derby and never raced again I am sure they would have been happy to have a son of Camelot with a Derby win on his CV. It's a business to them and you expect the hard headed decisions to be made, rather than taking the longer term view and perhaps seeing Sir Dragonet as a colt to take your time with for a better career as a 4YO.

If anyone made a balls up with an unraced at 2YO colt it would have to be Hughie Morrison. Telecaster started cannily but after routing his field on his second start he then went to the Dante despite having been taken out of the Derby earlier in the year. Outstaying Too Darn Hot, who was out of sorts early in the season, was always going to test the resolve of a trainer to stand by his original decision and Morrison gave the go ahead for the expensive supplementary fee. The horse flopped and the trainer castigated himself, suggesting that the experience had been a lesson in standing by your guns when making a decision. Telecaster was said to be going for a Group 2 in France in August in an effort to get his confidence back at a suitable level. Instead Morrison sent his colt to take on Enable in the Eclipse, totally contradicting himself and the horse flopped again. Morrison remains adamant that Telecaster can come back next summer and be a top 4YO but it remains to be seen. I don't buy into the excuse that they didn't run him again after the Eclipse because "There is nothing else left for him now" Really? I am calling bollocks on that statement. It would be a sad Racing year that effectively ended in the first week of July.

I feel that this 2YO season has been weaker in terms of prospects for the following year's Derby than last season was. So many of the better looking talents seem like sprinters or milers. There may be classy types who may stretch to 10F but the ones who look likely to get the full Derby trip look like they are a bit on the slow side. In addition Aidan O'Brien has a very poor looking team this year. Arizona is the only O'Brien horse in the first NINE in the 2000 Guineas betting. In addition he is pretty well exposed and unlikely to get involved in the Derby. His 20/1 odds in the Guineas indicate how poor a hand O'Brien has in the 2020 2000 Guineas at this stage. In the Derby, Mogul is Aidan's leading colt in the betting list. He looked no world beater in the Futurity when beaten and makes no appeal to me at 14/1. It says plenty that William Haggas' Convict is 28/1 for the Derby after winning a Handicap off 87. Now rated 96, it's laughable for me to consider that he has a better chance statistically than unraced colts simply by dint of having raced last season.

I am drawn to John Gosden's Darain as an unraced colt for next season's Derby. A full brother to Too Darn Hot but said to be a more relaxed individual, it is hoped he will stay further and be more tractable. He's 33/1 and appeals a lot more to me than the unlikely stayers and slowboats. The 2000 Guineas looks a much better race in terms of quality even if there are some doubtful stayers in there as well. The Commonwealth Cup may be where the best colts fight it out next season. None of the first three in the Guineas betting has won at a mile yet and only Pinatubo has won beyond 6F.

To answer Ron in part, Golden Horn was rated 86 by the Racing Post for his sole start at 2YO, while Elm Park received 118 for winning the Racing Post Trophy. That 32 lbs difference looked silly once Golden Horn beat Elm Park 6 lengths in the Dante and 20 lengths in the Derby. For me, it looks a Derby where either a once raced or unraced at 2YO colt will emerge and ultimately triumph at Epsom. If Pinatubo trains on and stays he would probably saunter home given he was boss by some way in 2019.

 

That last para is particularly interesting . An 86 rated 2yo wins the Derby and the Arc as a 3yo

 

Golden Horn beat a G2 horse on debut who had a previous run, missing the kick and clocking exceptional sectionals in the process with the front 2 7L clear of the 3rd. When I put him up in my 3yos to follow I did say the mark of 90 looked nice, it was obvious he was a bit better than that but it wasnt yet clear he was going to be Champion 3yo.

 

Horses are allowed to improve.

 

Thanks for that Ron. I was aware of Enable as I wrote this and I agree the Oaks is little different from the Derby. The atmosphere is perhaps not as frenetic as Derby but I’d discount that. Enable won on the AW in November. You could position it differently. We have no way of knowing that if (1) post-turf season AW racing was not available if Enable would have been entered and run earlier on the turf or (2) if she had not run she would have won the Oaks.

I do think that the Derby is different to any other race as Epsom is unique as a racecourse. First you have to go upwards turning right leading on one leg and then go left downhill leading on the other leg, the straight is a problem for some horses after that. I don’t think you can replicate it, though I’m sure there are replicas on training grounds, but impossible to get all of it. Epsom is unique and difficult, and it’s this difficulty that I think leads to most non-Group 1s on the course being poor quality fields.

Your question on the Derby winners is quite interesting and gives you a mixed message. The only champion 2yo of the last 20 years was New Approach (2008), though Sir Percy (2005) was probably thewon UK champion, I believe George Washington was higher rated. If you go over the last 20 years you get the following:-

Sinndar: Won both his 2yo races including the National Stakes (G1);
Galileo: Won his only start
High Chaparall: Won two of his three 2yo starts including Futurity Stakes (G1)
Kris Kin: Ran twice, winning once
North Light: Ran twice winning once
Motivator: Won both starts including Futurity (G1)
Sir Percy: Won all 4 starts including G3 win and Dewhurst (G1)
Authorized: Ran twice, winning Futurity (G1) on second start
New Approach: Ran 5 times, wining a G3, a G2 and two G1s (National and Futurity)
Sea the Stars: Ran 3 times winning twice including G2 Beresford Stakes
Workforce: Ran once, won once (in ‘eye-opening’ fashion)
Pour Moi: Ran twice, winning once
Camelot: Ran twice, after first win (made Derby favourite) before winning Futurity G1)
Ruler of the World: did not run
Australia: ran 3 times, winning twice including G3 beating top class colt Free Eagle.
Golden Horn: Ran once and won once
Harzand: ran once, unplaced.
Wings of Eagles: Ran four times, winning once.
Masar: Ran 5 times winning twice, including G2 Solario: ran in two G1 events without winning either.
Anthony Van Dyk: Ran 7 times, winning twice including G3 Tyros Stakes. Ran placed in G1s and G2s.


First thoughts, (1) the last 4 Derbys have been substandard, (2) going through this list it surprised me how many won G1 races (7) and how many won G1s or G2s (9), (3) Stoute Derby winners don’t win or even run in Group races, (4) O’Brien is not frightened to give his horses plenty of runs.

Sorry I haven't any evidence that isn't historic

 

Give us another Jo. Used to enjoy your 3yos to follow list

 

And AOB has won 5 of the last 8. I wonder how many runners he had entered at the end of the year and what their prices were (or were any supplemented). Just wondering how profitable or not it would have been to back all his entries ante post

 

Not watched all the maidens yet and there are still some to come but Highest Ground is the one ive liked most so far, backed him at 50/1.

Of those with higher level form, Military March 28/1 would be my pick. The Autumn Stakes looks strong form again and Military March is crying out for a trip, hes a full brother to Clongowes who stayed 2 miles and he was very strong at the finish of a testing mile at Newmarket on soft. The runner up Al Suhail had close form with Kameko and it was 7L back to the 3rd Ropey Guest who was 1/2L 2nd in the Horris Hill next start. Persia beaten 13L was 1/2L 2nd in the G3 Eyrefield and then won a decent race at Chelmsford. That form looks extremely strong for the grade and he will improve for the trip, the dam was placed in the English and Irish Oaks, won the Ribbelsdale and Yorkshire Oaks, and with only 2 runs youd imagine there is a lot more to come, id make him favourite at this stage, ive not seen a better candidate.

 

I wouldn't bother with that one Ron.

As it stands there are 356 entries in the 2020 Epsom Derby and there are somewhere between 60 and 70 O'Brien colts entered. Even after that he may supplement others in the Spring.

Looks like a suicide mission backing that many of them.

 

That's that one out the window then

 

I can see why you like that one. Not entered yet but that's easily solved.

 

Just had a brief look at those 2. Always have a look at the times and they look encouraging. Will keep my eye on them

 

Hukum ran in a race at Newbury mentioned earlier on the thread and finished 3rd. Very well-bred and reappeared early last week at Kempton. He looked to have no chance coming into the straight, having been hampered earlier but made an enormous amount of ground to be 6 lengths down at the distance. He won by one length eased down, with just one tap from Crowley. I'd take from this he has considerable ability but will need to improve a good deal over the winter to figure in Group races. He comes from a family (that of Nashwan, Highclere and Deep Impact) who do just that. Difficult to say how far he'll stay.

 

Surprised nobody has mentioned Waldkonig from the Gosden yard. The son of Kingman is a half brother to Arc winner Waldgeist and he made his debut in an 8 and a half furlong class 5 at Wolverhampton. Obviously that is a universe away from The Derby but in a slowly run race Rab Havlin stated afterwards that he felt he had to get the horse out wide from in behind to let him start to use his stride. When he got daylight it was immediately abundantly evident that he was going to win. He soon reeled the leaders in and had the race under control. He picked up and powered clear to win by nine lengths and it was impossible not to be impressed.

Waldkonig is also a half brother to Waldstern, who looked a promising staying 2YO for Gosden but was ultimately gelded and didn't quite make it to top class. The Dam Waldlerche won the Group 3 Prix Penelope for Andre Fabre and her offspring to this point have all been rated over 100 by the Racing Post. Waldkonig looks likely to match that three figure level at least.

A long way to go from Wolverhampton to Epsom in June but this was a taking performance from the son of Kingman, although 20/1 for the Derby is surely a bit skinny with some firms. One thing is sure, if Waldkonig wins the Derby, he will have avoided the "Never raced as a 2YO" stat by only 25 days. The Racing Post finally settled on a rating of 94 for Waldkonig, which is an excellent first run at 2YO. The form is obviously very tenuous for the moment and he wouldn't be stitched on to get 12F but he does hold a Derby entry and seems to be a good galloping sort.

Race replay here:- https://www.attheraces.com/atrplayer-popup/VOD/1124760?partner=tdn