2021 Grand National Fancies

The 2021 Grand National weights will be unveiled on Tuesday 16 February at 11.30am. It will be aired live on Racing TV

No doubt there will be some changes in the odds within minutes of the announcement so maybe it is crazy to be looking at ante post bets before then

However I am going to plump for a couple now in the hope that they may look to be value once the weights have been allocated

Santini. After last years Gold Cup, he became my main hope for this year's renewal of that race. On the evidence of his latest run, he was either having a prep run for the GC, or he needs further. My thinking therefore is to back him to win the Golds Cup at 14/1 (in case of the former) and to back him ew for the GN at 33/1 (in case of the latter). If he gets in under 11.7 it wouldn't surprise me to see those odds halved

Cloth Cap. Finished very strongly in his last race to win impressively. This is further but he did finish well last year in the Scottish GN. Anything above 10.7 and I fear it might be too much weight. Fingers crossed on that one

Native River would be my banker but he doesn't seem to be engaged

 

Santini 11.10 A bit more than hoped

Cloth Cap 10.5 Great as long as he gets decent ground

 

Vieux Lion Rouge 40/1

always goes well round here and won a Grand National trial over the fences in December. great each way bet.

 

Paddy Power and Betfair are going Non Running No Bet although the odds in comparison to those not offering that concession is pretty skimpy for the majority of runners in my eyes.

About an hour after the weights were announced Any Second Now was 33/1 e.w 5 places with Bet365 although that price has now gone. He would be one I would want on side but it will be no bet until evening before/day of race for me...

 

I have my bets for several months (some for eight months, the last two months ago), for now I am doing well because all the horses remain in the fight, other years I already had a couple of them out. This year is the one in which I have bet on more horses, generally "only" I choose four, for the money they gave me back from 2020.

All e/w of course:

Kimberlite Candy 33/1
Easyland 25/1
Burrows Saint 20/1
Discorama 33/1
Potters Corner 25/1
Milan Native 50/1
Bellshill 50/1

I expect at least four or five to be on the start line.

 

Cloth Cap - Win

Milan Native - EW
Easysland - EW
The Conditional - EW

 

ANIBALE FLY ticks every box for me and is now handicapped to win. I don’t know if there has been any target talk but the prep so far looks geared toward this. JP looks set to have a very strong hand and I also like the look of his Kimberlite Candy.
ANIBALE FLY backed at 44.8/1

 

As I said on Monday eve the 2 that I was interested in were Santini and The Conditional. Respectively they were allocated 11 st 10 lbs and 10 stone 6 lbs. The former was always going to get in the region of 11-7 to 11-10 (you don't finish a neck 2nd in the most recent renewal of the CGC and get anything else) and he remains of huge interest as I think he could devour those fences and that trip. The latter, to me, makes perhaps the biggest appeal off that impost. Connections must be absolutely delighted, I would imagine with that.

Lower down the weights (and he will need a few to come out between now and the decs) dare I say that Rocky's Treasure could be absolutely thrown in on 10 stone. We won't dwell on who trains him but go back far enough and this horse has some awesome form to his name.

 

Kimberlite Candy
Lake View Lad
Forecast sorted

 

I notice an old fav of mine Blaklion has been allocated 10.2 IF HE GETS IN

I know he is now a 12yo

But

In the 2017 GN He was 4th at 8/1fav carrying 11.1. Bumped 2 out and slightly hampered at the last

In Dec 2017 he carried 11.6 to victory in the Becher Chase

In the 2018 GN he was set to carry 11.10, giving Tiger Roll 11lb, but was brought down at the first

In Dec 2018 he carried 11.10 in the Becher Chase and started the 9/2 fav despite being his first run for 224 days but weakened before 2 out to finish down the field

In 2019 he only had 2 runs - Jan and Feb (both over 3m+) and changed trainer from Nigel Twiston-Davies to Philip Kirby in Feb 2019

Without a run he changed trainer from Philip Kirby to Dan Skelton in Oct 2020

After an absence of 623 days he was turned out under Bridget Andrews 11.0 for a 3m chase at Ascot on 31 Oct. Hampered start, held up in rear, headway into midfield after 3 out, weakened after 2 out

SO, although he is a 12 yo he has had just one race in the last 2 years

I wonder if Dan has got him in under the radar at 10.2 and I wonder who will ride him. Dan has no other entries in the race

 

I can certainly recommend one method of finding the winner, and that is to discount all horses that have run and failed to win the race in previous years.
Nine times out of ten, the winner is a first time entrant. Apart from Team Spirit, Red Alligator, and Hedgehunter, I'm pushed to remember another winner that ran in the race previously.
I haven't got a strong fancy at all at the moment, but I'd be very interested in the chances of the improved staying hurdler, The Jam Man. Apart from his good staying hurdles form, he's also won his last three chases. Similar credentials to recent winner, Rule The World. I've had a few bob on at 66/1.

 

Stick, you’re definitely right about Anibale Fly being handicapped to win- and undoubtedly the best handicapped in the race.
Despite his big weight, he didn’t really stay on last year and, like Santini, he may lack that bit of tactical speed when it really matters. So is he one of those disappointing “maybe horses?”
Apart from not liking horses who have been to the well before, he certainly could win.

 

I think we need to set the forum geek (Nass) on researching your theory about previous runners not performing in the race. One of my biggest criteria when looking at the race has always been course form. Possible that I need to scrap that thought process.
I also put an early line through horses that have more than two career falls but that only rules out a small number this year but they are significant in the market, Easysland, Any Second Now, Articulum, Lord Du Mesnil, Cabaret Queen, Minellacelebration.
I agree with Ron that BLAKLION really is very interesting if he gets in the race and other one that is way down the list but would be interesting is the Foxtrot horse HOGANS HEIGHTS although his lack of an outing this year is a concern. Happy to leave the antepost market at just the one for the time being.

 

There will no doubt be a few more over the years ,Stick, but not many. Mon Mome has just come to mind but the race certainly favours a first time runner in the race.

 

I quite like the Irish mare Agusta Gold

Good jumper and stayer with a nice weight of 10-3

Each Way @ 66-1 [Unibet]...50-1 NRNB [Paddy Power]

 

First time jockeys in the race must have a fairly good strike rate? @NassauBoard

 

Mania, Treadwell (RIP), Slippers and Ruby? Think those are the four this Millennium.

 

Yeah, I think so. I can think of 2 in the 90's but could have been more... (Armytage and Hawke)

 

One I backed in two GNs; L’Escargot