2020 Two Year Olds: Discussion Thread

Not sure Charlton has a good 2yo colt, as the last three days were very unproductive. Pleasant Man looked a gangly schoolboy running against men and it was right to be surprised he jumped from debut win to Group 2. Keeper didn't run and Saligo Bay did not progress. He runs a Dubawi 2yo colt, Boltaway, this week and he is from the Beckhampton established Peace family.
As regards the fillies, Love is You did not run and Quilted showed very little on her first start. The stable is not in the form it was three weeks ago.

 

There were very few Classic clues offered by the four big juvenile races on Saturday.

Middle Park winner Supremacy is clearly a sprinter and it was good of Clive Cox to admit as much when interviewed after the race. No surprise that the horse still features in a couple of lists at 25/1 for the 2000 Guineas even though the trainer said the Commonwealth Cup was more the plan. There were no excuses for runner up Lucky Vega so it was either a case of that is as good he is or his Phoenix Stakes saunter needs to be downgraded. Minzaal was a bitter disappointment (especially to those of us who had backed him!). He did not blow the start like his previous two victories but he had far too much to do with two furlongs left and just ran on past beaten horses to get a never-threatening third. It will be interesting to see what they plan to do with him next.

New Mandate won the Royal Lodge more comfortably than the winning margin would suggest, but as a gelding he will have no impact on the Classic betting. In a slowly run race, runner up Ontario was just staying on at the end suggesting that he may want further already whilst pacesetter Cobh had every chance and I was surprised that Franny Norton did not realise that the pace was too slow on Gear Up and take the lead off him.

There was no crawling in the Cheveley Park and as they were well bunched and there was no traffic trouble, the winner’s performance looks perfectly valid with the Lowther winner Miss Amulet chasing Alcohol Free home. Interviewed post race, Oisin Murphy suggested that Alcohol Free was well regarded and she had attracted market support early doors. Having her seventh start, the bargain buy favourite Miss Amulet may just be precocious and she just about upheld the Lowther form with third Umm Kulthum, making a quick return after winning last weekend. The winner reversed form with Salisbury conqueror Happy Romance with the change of tactics whilst Dandalla never threatened in the last furlong of the race. Sacred was the big disappointment of the race, clearly not showing her running in the last third of the race. So is Alcohol Free a 1000 Guineas candidate? Whilst the sire was a sprinter, there is evidence on the dam’s side that she will stay and the bookies will give you 33/1.

Over at The Curragh, it looked like an almighty plunge on Monaasib was going to be landed with that one leading at the distance but favourite High Definition arrived from out with the washing to deny him in the shadow of the post. Clearly the step up in trip was what Kevin Prendergast’s colt wanted looking at his moderate previous form and he looks like one to watch. The winner was not the stable’s fancied runner when victorious on debut and looked to have no chance with a quarter mile to go but then flew. Another Ballydoyle Galileo at the head of the Derby betting, so no different to any other winter ante post market in the last twenty years! As O’Brien has already opined that he will start in the Guineas, he is in that market at 16/1.

 

Sea The Stars was the last horse to win the Derby after winning the Berseford and before him, I think you need to go back to Nijinsky in 1969.

Latest renewal looks pretty poor with the 2nd and 3rd horses rated around 100, and the time almost 2 seconds slower than the maiden won by debutant Santa Barbara and almost 2.5 seconds slower than the handicap won by the 97 rated Carrytheone. High Definition in two starts has looked quite a slow type, needing every inch of soft ground miles and hes not one id be looking to bet in classic races, horses can transform but he would need to for his Guineas price to be anything other than laughable. He could be a Gold Cup horse of the future, his full brother Royal Aide ended up running 3 miles over hurdles and High Definition looks like he would jump a fence.

 

The more obvious statistic about the Beresford is that it has become an O’Brien benefit for the last decade and he does not seem to run his best middle distance prospects there. It has thrown up some good sorts this century, just not Derby winners.

The fact that High Definition was the unfancied Ballydoyle runner when he won on debut does suggest that he has done little at home but he would not be the first lazy worker to save his best for the track.

I agree that backing High Definition for the 2000 Guineas would seem to be folly because he looks like a middle distance horse; however, in a slowly run race on Saturday, he did pick up from right at the back and pass everything. The one thing that may well be in his favour at HQ is that Moore will be on something more fancied for Coolmore! And nobody fancied Sea The Stars.

 

Watching Sea The Stars in the Berseford no one would have guessed he would go on to be as good as he was, but he travelled like a good horse and it wasnt a terrible race, Mourayan ended up rated 116 and Masterofthehorse placed in the Derby, so it was probably better than it looked at the time.

I think its the eight thing to skip the racing post with High Definition as that race has been dominated by Guineas horses in recent years and hed be very unlikely to have the pace to win it, the 10f race in France would be more up his street.

 

The 2000Gns looks to be up for grabs so if I were looking for an ante post dabble I think I would have a small wager on
Albasheer at 25/1 and St Mark's Basilica at 33/1 ahead of the Dewhurst

 

The 2000Gns looks to be up for grabs so if I were looking for an ante post dabble I think I would have a small wager on
Albasheer at 25/1 and St Mark's Basilica at 33/1 ahead of the Dewhurst

 

If I were forced to have a bet on the 2000 Guineas right now, I would have a speculative little each way on Mill Reef winner Alkumait, which would probably have my jinx jockey aboard if it became No. 1 choice, but it has a sprinter’s pedigree.

 

I doubt anyone thought Serpentine was a Derby winner in the making last season and although he pinched the race, part of his being able to do that was the dearth of 12F quality. To be frank, it seems as bad or perhaps even worse this season.

I backed High Definition for the Derby at 25/1 because I felt there was a chance he would be clear favourite with a win on Saturday. The race time was very slow but I could only uprate High Definition for getting home after such a crawl.

In the commentary I listened to, it was stated that High Definition hit 90/1 in running and you have to give some credit for being able to defy that assessment.

As ever, if High Definition can't win the Derby, then who will? We see year after year that most Guineas winners do not go on to land the double and most of the good Colts this season already have stamina question marks for the Guineas, never mind the extra half mile of the Derby. If I had to pick one it would probably be Thunder Moon, purely because he would be short as a carrot if he won the 2000 Guineas and you can get 33/1 for the Derby with Paddypower according to Oddschecker. A Dewhurst win would see him short for the 2000 Guineas and he would also contract for the Derby because of his enhanced probability of landing the first Classic.

The Racing Post ranked High Definition 111 for the Beresford win and that's probably too high. We need to buy into Monaasib improving a fair bit for stepping up to the mile in order to accept the raise of 26 lbs from the O'Brien colt's debut run. It's probably another case of the race status leading the assumption that the winner has to have been at a certain level while the truth is that sometimes the running is below average in some seasons. Even if it is lower than the figure the Racing Post have awarded, it still has to be just about the best show from a colt who has won a 2YO race at the mile trip this season.

I would have thought that Ballysax and/or Derrinstown would be the best path for High Definition next season. or one of those and then the Dante. I can't see High Definition winning a Guineas unless it comes up very soft and he managed to scramble home as Camelot did in his year. He would need to be ridden much more aggressively over a mile, and coming with a withering run from off the pace, as he did in the Beresford, would not be an option.

Generally 10/1 after Saturday's win, High Definition is now a general 8/1 shot and a lot of that is due to the lack of a better candidate and there is unlikely to be much to emerge with serious claims as we head into October. Whoever wins the Futurity may well take over at the head of the market but will they necessarily look like a 12F horse for next season?

25/1 High Definition is a reasonable place to start for next year's Derby but it's still long odds-on that he will not win it because his best odds currently only give him a 10% chance of winning and a 90% chance of losing. It doesn't take Sherlock to work out that he is highly unlikely to win it based on the laws of probability.

 

High definition isn't the same species as Camelot, heavy ground won't be enough to get him into the top 4 in the Guineas.

It was nowhere near 111, and nowhere near as good as Cadillac over 1m at Leopardstown.

 

Fascinating win by High Definition. He looked a big unfurnished colt who will improve a great deal with time. He could be very good, but on first looks appeared a bit ungainly. You have to have more than a good finishing run to win at Epsom and the Curragh may see him to more advantage. It will be interesting to see his progress.

 

The Derby has been a terrible antepost race in recent years.

 

Just had a look at the three 1m races and the Berseford was run on a different course to the other two so comparisons of the overall time are useless, it didnt look a noticeably slow pace and the overall time being so significantly slower seemed strange, this would explain it.

These stills are taken at the same time respective to the stalls opening in each race, the maidens are on an outer course and you can see how far in front they are of the Beresford. I actually think the Berseford was run over significantly further than the similar one mile advertised maidens, rather than the pace being that much slower. Shows just how poorly regulated racing is over here and how poor our data is.

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Looking at the final 3 furlongs when both races were on the same part of the track, High Definition ran the final 3f half a length faster than Santa Barbara, presumably after running significantly further until that point.

Deserves to be favourite by virtue of connections, pedigree and there literally being nobody else around right now, but remains to be seen if hes a genuine Group 1 horse. The fact that the race was run on a completely different track to the other mile races on the card makes it impossible to compare it any meaningful way. Judged alone in terms of pure form, its a long way off G1 standard, but given the way he finished, the test obviously didnt get to the bottom of the winner and hes better than the bare form.

A real top class Classic prospect would have more gears at a mile imo and he looks an out and out stayer.

 

Nice start by a Gosden filly at Nottingham yesterday. Godolphin's Little Kitten appeared green and was initially pulling hard but this daughter of Sea the Stars and Ribblesdale winner Michita came away nicely. One for Gosden to bring to bloom next Spring.

 

I had a small bet on Little Kitten simply because I foster cats for Cats Protection and recently had four kittens in the pen.

Promising start for Little Kitten and she will surely come on a fair chunk over the winter with all things considered. I was a bit surprised not to see her quoted for next years Oaks. Gosden already has Indigo Girl and Monsoon Moon in the list but I would have though Little Kitten would be in there at about 40/1.

 

Jean-Claude Rouget had a nice looking colt called Makaloun winning the Prix De Conde this week. The group 3 race was run on heavy ground and the field was well strung out, so his 5 length win is probably to be treated with caution at face value but he was winning his 4th race in a row and being by Bated Breath you would not necessarily have thought that 9F on heavy ground would suit him as a 2YO.

The 5th home in the Conde was Andre Fabre's filly Magna Mater and she had run behind Fev Rover in the Group 2 Calvados on her last start. Probably a bit below par this time but she was beaten more than 8 lengths further here and the ground was very soft in the Calvados race.

I would be interested to see how Makaloun performs on a better surface but if it comes up very soft in next year's French Classic trials he would surely be a player as a progressive sort owned by the Aga Khan and proven on the ground.

 

Plum Ali made it 3 from 3 in the Miss Grillo at Belmont, she looks like the main challenger to Campanelle and is now a best priced 7/1 with Hills. This race has thrown up 3 recent winners in Lady Eli 2014, New Money Honey 2016 and Newspaperofrecord 2018. Plum Ali will be looking to keep that 2 year pattern going.

Campanelles form has not held up particularly well recently and she looks to be bumping into a decent one here who stays the mile well.

 

A couple of Dubawi colts entered at Nottingham tomorrow. Royal Touch is one I have mentioned before but he did not keep any of his engagements when entered up earlier in the season. His dam is Gonbarda, whose best progeny so far have been by Pivotal and the highest rated of them was Farhh. Charlie Appleby has an absolute shed load of Dubawi 2YOs and there is a fair chance this one will be reasonably ready to go first time out with the question being if it was a setback that saw him fail to appear when previously entered.

Thunder Drum is out of the talented Great Heavens, who won the Irish Oaks and John Gosden trained the Dam as well as having this son in the yard now. Great Heavens has not had anything of any real note yet and Thunder Drum is perhaps less likely to be primed for his debut than the Appleby colt.

The maiden tomorrow is seen largely as a 4 horse affair, with it being 14/1 bar the leading quartet. Wicklow has run before and was 4th but that was quite a low rated run and even with a stone improvement from it I still feel that one of the newcomers will be able to make a winning debut.

Royal Touch is short at a general 13/8, while there is money for Hugo Palmer's Sea The Stars colt Irish Legend. It's a little while since Palmer had a really smart colt though and I might be tempted with Gosden's Thunder Drum since the trainer has had a few better looking youngsters out recently and at 7/2 he may be capable of winning over a trip/ground combination that should bring stamina into play.

 

If my memory serves me correctly Great Heavens loved it soft/heavy and I won a fair (virtual) bit backing her with my virtual money. Pretty sure it was her

 

Aunt Pearl looks another major player for the Juvenile Fillies Turf after winning the Jessamine, she smashed the stakes record apparently although the ground looked to be seriously quick and a new 12f record was set in an allowance race so I wouldnt read much into it. The time was almost 2 seconds off the track record set by Rushing Fall who must have achieved that in a non stakes race, incidentally she was the only filly to win the Jessamine and follow up in the BC as a 2yo and she looks a big player for the Filly & Mare Turf this season.

Aunt Pearl is now fav or joint favourite with most books, Hills are sleeping and you can still have 8/1 with them but im sticking with Plum Ali for a couple of reasons. Aunt Pearl has had 2 soft leads in her 2 starts and these juvenile races at the BC are usually run at a hot pace, youd imagine it will be a contested pace there and she will need to work harder if she wants the lead. The other reason is some collateral form, the runner up here Spanish Loveaffair had previously beaten Directors Cut by 1.5L, Directors Cut was beaten 23L by Plum Ali in the Miss Grillo. The 3rd Ingrassia had won by a short head on debut against Stunning Princess who was subsequently beaten 6L in the Natalma at Woodbine, which puts this form at a similar level, the winner of the Natalma is 14/1 for this race so I dont think the form justifies Aunt Pearl being favourite but shes obviously a highly promising filly for a top trainer.

Sweet Melania won the race last year with a similarly uncontested lead, she got caught 3 wide on a contested pace at the BC and was run down by Sharing after leading into the straight. I think a similar fate awaits Aunt Pearl with Plum Ali but its shaping up to be a very hot race with these 2, Campanelle and possibly the Moyglare winner Shale, Pretty Gorgeous shouldnt bother making the trip unless it looks like its going to come up soft, shed have no chance against this lot on fast ground.

The colts version looks underwhelming by comparison, this is probably the race im most looking forward to now.