2020 Two Year Olds: Discussion Thread

Must have been a rotten maiden Midlife Crisis won, last of 4 in the G3 today.

Chindit appears to be turning up at Doncaster thankfully, looks to be a lot of confidence behind Albasheer though as hes clear fav now and as I suspected, he will be a serious test for Chindit. The race has cut up plenty but both Hamdan horses run and Devious Company brings a line to Master of The Seas and Battlegorund, the current standard bearers in the 2yo division, and will have no excuses back at 7f this time so it should be a very informative race.

 

His price got there in the end to what I expected but it was a strange market, god knows what Paddy Power were thinking when they pushed him out to 4/1 midweek, I assumed he was going to be non runner but it was just a monumental blunder by them.

The presence of State Of Rest in 3rd puts a dampener on the form and you couldnt rate the winner any higher than 108/109 which is what he had already achieved imo, that suggests hes already the finished article just now and given his unfashionable pedigree, I just dont see him winning the Guineas and never have, I prefers Hannons Etonian as a prospect going forward despite having lesser form at this stage.

There has been a lot of talk about the Guineas market being shaken up this weekend but 1 horse has not really been mentioned - Cadillac, who I expect to get back to winning ways in the Irish G2. I thought he lost little in defeat last time in jumping ground and ran a fine race in the circumstances, people were expecting more obviously after the debut performance but I think you can forgive him.

Grendel makes a fair point re Jessie Harrington and classics, and Lope De Vegas have never really set Newmarket alight so pedigree concerns for him but in terms of ability, he might just be the best about but he has to show it today or forget about it. The main players in the National Stakes are all around the 110 mark, I think this horse could be capable of a few pounds higher than that and im just going to have something on for the Guineas at 33/1 with Paddy on the off chance.

 

Very impressive from Cadillac, caught wide all the way, travelled well into the straight and finished very strongly going away from Van Gogh who also done much better back on good ground.

Given how strong he was at the end id imagine they must be thinking Racing Post Trophy, and him vs Etonian would be a race id like to see.

 

Good shout though Joe. About 0.9 secs faster than Wichita 70 mins later

 

The National Stakes is hard to trust. Thunder Moon had shown a sharp turn of foot on debut and I had marked him down as at least Group 3 quality material. I wasn't sure he was ready for the top on his next start but he went out there and did the business in front of some of the leading lights in the 2000 Guineas betting. The trouble is the horses who finished second and third.

Wembley had looked a bit of a hound to be honest. He was turned over at 4/9 and when he did win his maiden on his fourth start he was 1/2 Fav. His four runs had earned him a fairly exposed looking colt with a 92 rating on official figures. However, as ever, the handicapper has no hesitation in raising the horse by a 20 lb chunk to 112. This was not a horse coasting along and winning low key affairs and then got his first chance to be rated higher. He was a horse who was getting beaten before winning an awful looking maiden, where the runner up went on to be beaten further next time it ran.

St Marks Basilica had looked a better prospect than Wembley. I had read bits and pieces about him and given the big race entries he had it seemed worth chancing at 2/1 on his debut. Backed to 6/4 that day he was a bit disappointing, looking as if he lacked the speed for 6F, when second to a moderate enough looking Coill Avon, who was raised to 90 after his win but he was slaughtered next time when tried in Group 3 company. Now we have a scenario where Coill Avon remains a 90 rated horse, while St Mark's Basilica is now rated 112. As a punter, who had money on at 2/1, it galls to see your selection rated 22 lbs superior now, after going down by 2 and a quarter lengths when you could have collected if he had got his arse anywhere near in gear on debut.

At this point I would observe that Lucky Vega seemed overrated for his Phoenix win. I said it at the time and I was against him in the National. Other than St Mark's Basilica being 3rd in the National Stakes, every other runner from the Phoenix has been unplaced since. Lucky Vega was deemed unlucky by some in the National but I didn't really see it that way. A Racing Post article opined that the Harrington horse deserved to be favourite for the 2000 Guineas but I disagreed with that sentiment. Now the story is that Thunder Moon deserves to be favourite for the 2000 Guineas but I am not sure that is the case.

Master Of The Seas was the one I sided with in the National and at one stage I thought he was coming through to take it up and win but he didn't put it to bed and in the end he faded to finish 4th, That said, he still finished ahead of Lucky Vega and that fact makes me think the Harrington horse is a no go for the 2000 Guineas. Master Of The Seas ran to my eyes like a horse who wasn't fully tuned up. Off for two months, he was always going to be spaced that way between races but having only had two runs, another outing for experience and to keep him ticking over would not have been a bad idea in my mind. Onwards to the Dewhurst and a season closer would have been an ideal way to pull stumps for the year. Anyway, they sent him there after a break and it didn;t pay off but I think it is too early to write him off just yet.

In the 2000 Guineas Thunder Moon at 7/1 and Battleground at 8/1 look too short to me and Chindit at 10's is skinny, bearing in mind that he was efficient rather than dazzling on his latest start. I would say Etonian at 25/1 would be the value at the moment. He has looked the part and followed up readily at Sandown despite the jockey saying that the colt stumbled on the bend that day. Dubai Fountain is a pretty decent yardstick and she was beaten almost three lengths further by Etonian than she was by Indigo Girl in the Group 2 May Hill at Doncaster. Chindit is 6 lbs higher than Etonian on official ratings but his 115 has been achieved in a Group 2 and probably rated on that fact. I am pretty confident that Etonian could have achieved just as good a result in the Champagne and I would doubt you could confidently say Chindit was a 6 lbs superior colt to Etonian. Therefore, two and a half times the odds for the 2000 Guineas doesn't really seem justified. The pair could clash in the Dewhurst and odds there are currently 5/2 Chindit and 14/1 Etonian with Paddy Power, which seems way out of kilter but perhaps the thinking with them is that Etonian won't be sent in against Chindit. William Hill go 4/1 Chindit and 10/1 Etonian for the Dewhurst, which seems more like it on the available form for the pair.

In general I don't think it is quite game over for Master Of The Seas but he needs to win next time we see him to get back on track, Battleground's form has taken a bit of a kicking and I feel he needs to win something big to justify his odds for next year's Classics.

 

Cadillac was impressive and I was shocked when he was beaten by 28/1 shot Mac Swiney on his previous start. The Irish pundits were talking of Bolger's colt as a potential Derby winner that day but I wasn't having any of that and it was no surprise to see him 8th of 10 in the National Stakes won by Thunder Moon. His 15 lbs rise for winning the Futurity looked a bit generous and I took the view that Cadillac wasn't at his best that day. The 4th in the Futurity, Snapraeterea was two lengths behind Cadillac that day but was 8 and three quarters behind next time they met, adding to the thinking that Cadillac was off form in the Futurity.

I have to say that I am dubious about Cadillac being a 115 rated colt at the moment. I thought it looked a weakish contest he won and I would still be concerned as to the reason for his defeat behind Mac Swiney. Bolger's horse has a run of Racing Post Ratings that look suspicious. His races have been scored:- 73, 89, 90, 108, 94
meaning that the 108 for the Futurity stands out by a long way as being questionable. It is always suspicious when a new mark by a long way is followed by a return to the previous level immediately.

Cadillac's next run will be very interesting.

 

I got the impression that Albasheer might improve more than Chindit. I could be wrong of course but I'm not sure that Albasheer should be twice the price of Chindit

 

Lucky Vega wasn't unlucky

Jesus christ, one of the most ridiculous comments I've ever seen, horse got completely murdered for a run and it was impossible to miss.

But don't give up on Master of the seas despite his form being next to worthless and being beat by Wembley with a clear run and zero excuses. Lucky Vega would be at most 2/5 in a match with him after that.

Neither of them have a hope in hell of winning the Guineas.

 

We need someone to tell us who WILL win the Guineas.

It is the easiest job in the world stating that 20/1 shots won't win.

Change the tune for **** sake. Mr Tedious.

 

https://www.racingtv.com/videos/wat...goffs-vincent-o-brien-national-stakes-group-1

If anyone can bring themselves to watch the race through "I didn't back Lucky Vega eyes" you will see that he gets into bother but that often happens when a horse isn't quite travelling well enough for the jockey to make the necessary adjustments. When he gets rolling he's not closing in the manner of a horse who was going to win it. When he is back at full speed he is still not matching the finishing kick of Wembley. You will notice that Wembley joins into the race just as Lucky Vega gets going again and they are more or less neck and neck for a few strides but from that point to the finishing line, the O'Brien colt takes a length and a half out of Lucky Vega. The only horses Lucky Vega is making up ground on is those who are dropping back and despite that worthless form horse Master Of The Seas weakening after hitting the front earlier, Lucky Vega could not even catch him.

It's the oldest mistake in the book deeming that your selection was unlucky, when you would have seen it differently if you hadn't backed it.

Looking at Master Of The Seas, I felt he was beat as they hit the 2F pole but he runs on for pressure and by the 1F marker he is in front and looks like he will win it but his effort peters out. He was pretty keen in the early stages and if his form is worthless then the rest of the field need to be very worried about their own ability.

Thunder Moon is now Timeform's top rated 2YO colt and he could have more to come but if horse racing were solely about backing the top rated ones we would all be rich. Horses do bounce back and Timeform had Pretty Gorgeous clear of Shale on Sunday but the O'Brien filly reversed form in the Moyglare and is now rated higher by a pound. However that previous race was in itself a reversal between the same two fillies and who knows which one will come out on top next time?

 

He never got "rolling", he was whipped once in a Group 1 when the race was over, Master of The Seas was whipped 6 times until Buick put the stick down when he was beaten. To say he wasnt quite travelling well enough is ridiculous, he just had nowhere to go as Master Of The Seas and Mac Swinney were keeping him in behind Charterhouse who was going nowhere. Foley then had to snatch up as Thunder Moon barged through, losing a length instantly and momentum which is huge at that stage of the race.

If Lucky Vega had a clear run his speed would have stolen plenty on a stayer like Wembley, who ran on strongly late, but being stuck in that stage of the race nullified his biggest advantage over most of the field, the speed that took him to the front in the Pheonix practically on the bridle. Anyone who cant see that he would have been no worse than 2nd hasnt got a clue im afraid. You can talk about the form of his last race but be beat St Marks Basillica 4.5L over the same course, his form was the best in the race and the only horse who would have troubled him was the unexposed winner.

And I won on the race, have no need to pocket talk.

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You also said Cadillacs bubble was burst and oppossed him a G2 because he got beat by Mac Swinney in bottomless ground, you have since changed your tune to you thought he was below form last time. You have also changed your tune on Etonian, when I put him up you bascially said his form was trash, now its good apparently and up there with Chindits. Its not btw, its a good few pounds below Chindits but whatever. Seem to remember you being big on not changing your mind but im glad you took my advice on being open to changing your position as new evidence emerges, although youve not yet managed to ditch the no hoper Master Of The Seas.

 

Well I won't be watching that race. I might form a totally different opinion, or worse still, agree with one of you

 

Alkumait rated the best British 2yo by Timeform with a rating of 118p. He is rated 2lbs behind Thunder Moon as regards UK/Ire ratings. Likely next race is the Dewhurst.

 

I prefer Etonian to Chidit as a prospect. It's what they are doing next April that matters to me. I said in my critique of Etonian that I would like to see him run again to solidify his credentials and that others may be 7-10 lbs ahead of him for NOW.

Etonian is rated 109 on official figures so he IS behind others by the margin I stated, but again that is for now. I praised the horse on his debut on the daily forum on 23rd July. I also made my observations regarding him on the 25th August and that was the day before Benoit put him up for the Guineas at 25/1 and not in response to it as is alluded to in the rant above. At least get the facts right for Christ's sake.

Pathetic trolling to suggest that I wrote the horse off in the manner alluded to.

I should have expected nothing less from an after-timing liar who backs several horses in the same race and then has a remarkable strike rate with the one what wasn't posted before the race. Had Lucky Vega won the National we would never have seen the Thunder Moon ticket.

I knew someone who used to back multiple selections in a race and one year I recall him putting up TWELVE picks for the Grand National in search of value and an overall lower price on the race. Nothing wrong with that if you are making a profit of course and at least he had the decency to declare ALL his bets on a race BEFORE it was run. He actually left Tiger Roll out of it that year and won nothing from his dozen against the field but overall on a season he generally made a profit and was at least open about his picks and not putting up "savers" after the race was run.

My advice would be to get your facts straight instead of pumping made up rubbish out of your fartpipe to fit an imaginary narrative.

I have checked the site for mentions of Etonian (The horse) and I was first to mention him and his promising debut on the Daily Racing Thread. I also mentioned him again, on 25th August, reflecting his promise but noting that the performance was not yet top of the tree. That is a million miles away from the poisonous ****e being suggested and it's sad to see someone so pathetic in their search for attention and self-aggrandisement.

 

I'll be surprised if the Mill Reef turns out as good as that rating suggests. I backed Fivethousandtoone on the day but had little expectation of him being top rated had he won. Rhythm Master brought Morny form to the table but I went against him on the day because the ground was different and I felt the Morny might not have been as hot as was first thought. Campanelle did beat him quite comfortably in France and I didn't like that Rhythm Master had dwelt at the start in his two previous races.

They may send Alkumait to the Dewhurst and I suppose they may as well find out if he can stay 7F this season. The normal thinking is Middle Park and then wait until next year to bite the stamina bullet.

I noticed that Charlton has Keeper entered up this week. The Frankel colt is entered in next year's Derby and is out of Portodora, a Kingmambo filly who was trained by Henry Cecil. Set Piece has been her best offspring so far. A mile maiden at Newmarket is Keeper's first potential starting point on Thursday.

 

I was strongly against Battleground and Master of the Seas in the national stakes, that only left two backable horses, wasnt difficult to back one and put a saver on the other especially given how impressive its first run was. I never back more than 2 in a race, 1 main bet and 1 saver, think its a very common practice for racing punters, you will be pushing 12 antepost bets on most of the classics by the time they come around.

 

I think it was the style of his win as much as anything. They are right to have a p next to his rating. Hamdan seems to have an embarrassment of riches with his 2yos. I suppose Minzaal will be near favourite for the Middle Park. I'd be surprised if Albasheer doesn't run again this year but probably needs a mile. The Dewhurst may be the target for Alkumait because it fits with others but also few trainers would run a horse a week apart, so the Middle Park was an unlikely target (seems to me it's being run a week early this year).

Not sure what is Charlton's best 2yo colt. He runs the Galileo colt, Pleasant Man, in the Royal Lodge on Saturday. Unlike him to go from maiden to Group 1/2. Keeper comes from the Mofida family: so Zafonic is the most famous member I suppose, but there's also Reams of Verse and Midday. I liked the debut of his New Bay colt, Saligo Bay, and he is entered to follow up this week. Probably not the class of others mentioned though bred well enough (from the Juddmonte family of Enable etc.).
As regards fillies he runs Quadrilateral's full-sister Quilted in the first on Saturday at Newmarket, while his Ascot winner Love is You is supposed to be going in the first at Haydock on Saturday. Apparently Beheld is done for the year.
A critical couple of days for Mr Charlton.

 

I was definitely in the very unlucky camp for LUCKY VEGA in the National Stakes but it could be lucky us as this meant 9/2 (still 4's) was available for the Middle Park, taken some of that and I am happy not be fussed about next years classic races at the moment thank you.

 

Supremacy stretched his couple of lengths over Tactical to nearly 4 yesterday. Supremacy looks to have physically improved since Goodwood and looks a good colt. I see that RP has rated that this the best 2yo form. I'm sure Cox is right that he's a 5f/6f horse.
The form looks solid as there were no excuses and everything was going for it. Only excuse is for Method.