2020 Two Year Olds: Discussion Thread

Madonna made a decent enough start last week. She was up against two fillies trained by Aidan's sons and the Father's filly was always likely to need the race as well, as she is by Galileo. It has become almost obligatory for the sire's progeny to be beaten on debut and then actually start their career proper on their second start and then show sometimes enormous improvement.

Madonna is a full sister to Maybe but it has to be said that most of the Dam's (Sumora) progeny have been a shade disappointing. They could not give Madonna away in the betting and there was never much hope of her collecting in a race dominated by the son's experienced fillies who were first and second but Madonna showed a bit of promise in 3rd place, keeping on quite well. A filly for next year, it would be sensible to stay low key with her this season. The 1-2 had both run twice already this season and had that advantage over the first timer.

Dermot Weld's Harzand filly Port Sunlight ran a similar race to Madonna, just a head away in 4th place and it was three lengths back to the next one home. Port Sunlight is out of Liber Nauticus, who was fancied by some for the Oaks when trained by Michael Stoute. Having won the Musidora Liber Nauticus could only manage 5th in Talent's Oaks and never raced again.

You would think Madonna is more likely to show big improvement given the sire and the way Aidan trains them with the longer view in mind. She could be decent next season at 10F or more. Not a bad start at all for her.

 

Lieber Nauticus had a soft palate operation after her disappointing Oaks run. She then had an injury and it was decided to retire her.

 

A pair of 2YO's that I liked after they won their maidens, last month, were BEHELD and NAVAL CROWN.

The former oozed class when she won on debut, at Newbury, for Mr Charlton. Whilst I loved the way the latter ground his opponents into the ground when obliging in the Convivial at York.

I would imagine that both will be upped to Listed/Group level next time.

 

Your Mr Charlton appears to share your liking for Beheld as she is one of his two entries for the fillies mile. The other is Love is for You, which is a Kingman filly.

 

The yard are certainly in outstanding form, at the time of writing, with 5 out of their last 6 runners winning.

 

Mahomes was uninspiring at Salisbury yesterday, finishing 8th. Expectation was muted as 11/4 JFav, given that Gosden is the trainer. He'll likely come on from this effort but it was a disappointing start considering his pedigree. Quite a few of Gosden's 2YO runners this year have looked mediocre. His Cambridgeshire candidate Al Rufaa was 4th of 4 runners yesterday beaten more than 8 lengths.

I was thinking about King Leonidas as a possibility for the Cambridgeshire. He was 2/2 going into the Jersey at Royal Ascot and I had backed him ante-post for that race, reckoning he would be a good bit shorter come the day. He certainly was short but didn't run as well as was hoped and has not been out since, That begs the question as to whether they have saved him for the Handicap race the stable has landed the past two seasons?

Awarded a rating of 102 after the Jersey, that mark will get him into the race for sure and you need a talented horse to qualify for the Cambridgeshire these days. Wissahickon and Lord North are the last two winners of the race and they struck for Gosden from marks of 107 and 98 respectively. King Leonidas sits around the middle of those two on his current mark. Looking back, Lord North was chucked in off 98, given that he is rated 124 now. I feel his new mark might just be a little too high but he was clearly let in lightly for last year's race in retrospect.

A question with King Leonidas will be whether 9F will suit? He did win at a mile before dropping to 7F for the Jersey, so will stepping back up help or will it be a furlong too far in what is likely to be a strongly run race?

Anyway, getting back to the 2YO scene and I notice that Gosden has a half sister to Logician entered up on Saturday. Monsoon Moon is by Kingman, out of Scuffle and she is also a grey. The Ascot race is over a mile and I see Roger Charlton also has a Kingman filly entered. Love Is You could well be decent and the yard won the equivalent race last season with Pocket Square.

I am not sure if it is just my imagination but I have always done better supporting Gosden 2YO horses owned by Juddmonte and have had little joy with the ones he has trained for Godolphin. Monsoon Moon is Juddmonte owned so I might have a dabble depending on the odds.

 

On paper Charlton looks to have his strongest set of 2yos for sometime. Yesterday Pleasant Man (by Galileo) became another FTO winner to join Beheld and Lucid Dreamer. For those of a certain age Pleasant Man's family will be remembered as that of Darling Boy who was a very good middle distance horse. DB's sister Hornpipe was sold to the US after her racing career and produced an excellent colt called Protaginist. Maybe another time for the Sugar Bun family?

When the Dick Hern/Lord Porchester debacle happened in the late '80s Willie Carson made the comment that 'there was always something of the little trainer in Porchester'. I sometimes wonder if there's not the same in Grimthorpe. Some comments were made last year that perhaps the Fillies Mile was the wrong race for Quadriliateral ( i believe Grendel said as much). I think it could have been better to have run her in the Rockfel or Oh So Sharp rather than the fillies Mile. I can't help thinking Grimthorpe had hand in that. I also think he's had a hand in the sometimes replacement of the stable jockey this season.

Tomorrow Watson rides two newcomers for his stable. One is Love is You who is by Kingman out of a good 2yo filly who won the Coronation Stakes as a 3yo. She traces back to Highclere's dam Highlight, so is related to the likes of Nashwan and so many others. The other mount is for Juddmonte, Innovator, and is by their own bred Showcasing out of a Rail Link sister of Headman, and so from the family of Enable and Logician. I find the Charlton horses are supported in the market if they are to win. He rarely has a longshot 2yo winner.

 

Megallan was yet another Gosden disappointment today. Kept low key he was 4/5 Fav but was narrowly beaten into second place. I thought they would keep him at a mile but they dropped him to 7F today and it didn't seem to suit. I thought he was impressive on debut but the warning signs had been there from the poor efforts of those who had run from that race. He looks a bust already.

The trainer had another beaten Fav 2YO later on but that was a very open race. I can't say Gosden has anything that looks of much substance in his youngsters this season.

Whiskey 'N' Chips was behind Beheld last time and only beaten a head that day, she is officially rated 78, which isn't very exciting for Beheld to have narrowly beaten and worse than that Whiskey 'N' Chips was out this evening and finished stone last, beaten 26 lengths. Maybe it was too bad to be true but it's a bit of a knife into the heart of Beheld's form.

Charlton has some promising ones for sure and more could yet appear but he needs to start converting the promise into success at 3YO. Quadrilateral and Pocket Square have both underwhelmed this season.

On the other hand, I can't remember John Gosden with such a poor hand of 2YOs in September. Has he got anything that could even be entered in a Classic with any sort of expectation?

I also feel Aidan has a poor looking squad thus far. If you take Battleground out it doesn't look great and there seems a lot of dross in the ones we have seen this season.

 

Richard Hannon seems to have a well above average bunch with a few standout prospects.

Still a bit early to be seeing Gosdens better prospects, they usually run in backend maidens. Obviously doesnt have a Calyx/Too Darn Hot this year tho.

 

Love is You ran on well to win on her debut. Only a neck in front of the 2nd but this was her first race and she'll improve for this. Enable's half sister was 3rd. Fortunately for Watson Love is You is not Juddmonte owned.

 

Bookies made it easy for me not to play on Monsoon Moon. 6/5 was abysmal odds given the season Godsen is having with 2YO's up to now. I did toy with Charlton's filly but left the race alone. However Charlton's Bullfinch landed me a double with Dream Of Dreams today at 10/3 and 3/1. There will be Gin.

 

Looking back at Monsoon Moon today, I liked the way she travelled into the race, seemingly going quite strongly. She was in front at the furlong pole but was strating to falter slightly. Love Is You was a bit off the pace and actually came under pressure first but she ran on well, while Monsoon Moon started to tire and only narrowly held on for third as Last Sunset stayed on for second.

Last Sunset had come in with an official rating of 83 and as a winner she was conceding 6 lbs, so technically she works out the best filly today only going down by a neck. The others are more open to improvement though. Physically I prefer the Gosden filly as a long term prospect and if the price were right I would back her in a rematch with Love Is You. The way Monsoon Moon travelled in ominously sticks in the mind as a horse who needed that race today. The 4th home Good And Proper was only a head behind Monsoon Moon but had an experience advantage after her debut third. That placing came behind Beheld, who is mentioned earlier in thread.

Monsoon Moon is Logician's half sister, rather than Enable's.

 

Another one for Hannon in the Ascendant with Fancy Man winning well, boosting the Salisbury win of Cobh and indirectly the horse who beat him previously Chindit - who continues to look like he has arguably the strongest 2yo form of anything at 7f+ so far based on collateral lines. Pedigree doesnt strike you as a Classic winner but he must have a serious chance in the Dewhurst. Etonian I think is the 2nd in the stable pecking order I think and he is more likely to go for the Racing Post.

 

You are of course right. My error

 

Hasn't Appleby got some good 2yos?

 

Chindit is 3/1 favourite for the Champagne stakes next weekend, its a race that the Hannons have done well in, winning it 4 times in the last decade, and the timing looks ideal to set up a crack at the Dewhurst. He won his maiden at the track comfortably but the form is pretty poor and its his Ascot run that is making him favourite here, multiple lines suggests its pretty high level 2yo form and certainly makes him a major player at G2 level.

Hamdan is responsible for the 2nd and 3rd choices, with Crowley booked to ride impressive course maiden winner Albasheer for Owen Burrows, he looked a serious prospect winning by 7L first time, the form has mixed messages so far, the runner up Alablaq had been 1.75L 2nd to none other than Chindit on debut but he seems to have regressed with every run, and Chindit has left that form well behind next time so not sure how much you can read into that. The 3rd Athers was 13L last as 10/11 fav at York, again not sure how much you can read in to that as he has run no race. The 4th horse Lost In Space is the one who has done some for the form, winning a novice at Lingfield and a Newmarket nursery off 82 in his next 2 start. The form in these novice/maidens need to be taken with a pinch of salt but Albasheer looked a group horse to me and he will be a serious test of Chindits credentials.

The other Hamdan Mujbar won his maiden more recently, a half to the high class Commonwealth winner Eqtidaar and my one time Guineas fancy Massaat, he is 2nd choice so it remains to be seen if Crowley jumps ship and if they run both or not. Id imagine only 1 of them will run and it may be Mujbar who defects, especially if the ground continues to dry out as he seemed to enjoy the soft at Newmarket last time.

Obrien usually throws a few of his 2nd string at the race and he has the highly touted St Marks Basilica entered, has not yet lived up to his reputation on the track, he was beaten 5L in the Phoenix Stakes and it would be disappointing if one of the unbeaten colts didnt prove to be a notch or two above him.

I have backed Chindit at 3/1, I dont often bet that short a week out but I think the entries lack depth, race could cut up a bit and he could end up a 7/4 shot, but we will see. Ive been bigging up his form for a while so I have to stick with it but Albasheer frightens the life out of me!!

Champagne Stakes - Chindit 3/1

 

The good 2yos are starting to emerge in America and ive been sniping prices while our bookies are sleeping on antepost markets. Its still relatively early days and all the main BC trials are still to come but It looks like the first home threat to Campanelle in the Juvenile Fillies Turf is Christophe Clements Plum Ali who is 2 for 2 after winning a Saratoga maiden and a 400k Stakes at Kentucky Downs last night. Clement has never won a Breeders Cup race but hes had a lot of 2nds and 3rds, his runners generally do well but hes been unlucky not to get the winner. This one looks to have a touch of quality but she will need to keep progressing, Unibet still have her at 25/1, the others eventually cut her to 12s, Hills put her in at 10s.

Roger Horgan assistant to Christophe Clement (winning trainer Plum Ali): “She has been special since Day One. We never cranked on her before her first start because she was going to run long. This was actually an audible. She was going to run in the With Anticipation at Saratoga but it got rained off the turf. So we came here for five times the money.”

Tyler Gaffalione (winning jockey, Plum Ali): “Christophe gave me a call this morning and said he put me on one of his best ones. She was supposed to run at Saratoga, but with all the rain, he figured this was an easier spot for her. Great job by them. She came over ready to run today. Boy, what an incredible filly.”

John Velazquez (runner-up jockey on Flown): “She ran really well, put in a really good run. Obviously the best horse beat her today.”

 

Midlife Crisis absolutely splattered his field at Deauville on debut. The Wootton Bassett colt is trained by Hiroo Shimizu and was a stunning winner to be honest with you.

I know little of the trainer but he was adamant afterwards that the horse is top drawer material and stated that the Lagardere was the ultimate aim this season. The second and third in his race went on to finish first and second on their next starts, so although not strong form, it is still a positive sign that Midlife Crisis at least beat capable horses when so impressive last time.

Longchamp sees a poor field of just four runners for the Group 3 Prix Des Chenes over a mile on Thursday and Midlife Crisis is no doubt using this race as the stepping stone to the Lagardere if he is good enough. Jean-Claude Rouget's Mouillage was impressive as well last time out, clocking a better time than other promising 2YO winners on the day. He sets the standard with his RPR but has already had three runs.

Midlife Crisis looked a potential star on debut and interesting to see how he goes.

The same day sees the Group 3 Prix D'Aumale, which is also over a mile and I am interested to see how Harajuku gets on there. I thought she looked potentially classy on debut and the daughter of Deep Impact gets the chance to show the trainer if she can justify her place in Group 3 company. My first thought when I saw her winning debut was the Boussac on Arc weekend but obviously these promising sorts need to make significant improvement.

Interesting races and a pity the fields were not a bit bigger,

 

Paddy Power now have Albasheer at 13/8 and Chindit at 4/1, looks like he will be a non runner and the money is done for me.