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Ferrari should be bang on here based on this years form. They were in a class of one in twisty Monaco and should be bang on the pace in Hungary. Red Bull just haven't looked particularly good anywhere this year and I don't think their chassis has worked as planned.
They've made a big step since Monaco and were very quick through the twisty section of Baku with 0 wing. It's a hard one to call though, so I'll wait til after FP2 to make my choice, it's one of the few tracks that Mercedes were ordinary during their dominance. Any of the 3 teams could have the edge here.
To be fair you have a good point about sector in Baku. Visually to me it just hasn't looked quite the glued car that it looked like last year but perhaps Hungary is the first proper opportunity for the upgrades to truly work. Interesting GP to see the McLaren chassis too.
The loss of their trick suspension this year has been the major difference. The car is far less predictable on setup and is harder for the drivers to get around it as the suspension no longer compensates for it like it did.
Read the other day that although he has won here 5 times , he has never been WDC in any of those seasons .
It seems to be "cursed" from a WDC perspective, it's been ages since anybody has won at Hungary and then claimed the WDC.
I'be gone for Ricciardo because I can see Red Bull being closer here. Hamilton loves the track but I don't think it suits their car, Vettel has a good shout but seems prone to imploding these days, he's getting as bad as Hamilton at his worst.
I do wonder if something is up at Ferrari with Vettel, he's yet to sign a new contract with them for next year. That said the press were wetting themselves when Hamilton only had a year left and look what he ended up doing.
Wondering if Red Bull having to 'strengthen' their front wing will hurt them? I think they have lots of new aero parts so might be difficult to see if any effect of front wing or new aero.