2014 World Hurdle

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OddDog

OddDog

Mild mannered janitor
Staff member
Jun 2, 2011
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Berlin, Germany
Up until the turn of the century, the stayer's championship race was considered something of a non-event within the bigger picture of the Cheltenham Festival - a race for plodders who lacked the speed to win a Champion Hurdle. A couple of multiple winners in Baracouda and the wonderful Inglis Drever increased the race's popularity, but in recent years (and probably forever after) the race has been synonymous with one horse - Big Buck's. Paul Nicholls' charge was famously switched to hurdles after falling at the last fence in the 2008 Hennessey Gold Cup and the rest, as they say, is history. 18 consecutive victories over hurdles, including 4 World Hurdles and 4 Aintree hurdles, propelled the horse, and the World Hurdle, to a regular highlight of the festival. Injury robbed us of his presence in the 2013 renewal, prompting a huge entry as the race lost it's air of inevitability with the champ missing. Former Champion Hurdle aspirant Solwhit grasped his chance and made the step up in trip a successful one, powering up the hill to take the race from Celestial Halo and Smad Place.

As Big Buck's continues his recovery and sets his sights on extending his winning run and reclaiming his crown, the inevitable questions are asked - will he be as good as ever after injury? Will the years start catching up with him? Can one of the young pretenders overtake him? This is all reflected in the market which has a very open look to it (Oddschecker Stan James prices 8th Spetember):

At Fishers Cross 3
Big Buck's 4
Solwhit 7
Zarkandar 8
Quevega 8
Gemix 10
The New One 16
Monksland 16
Countrywide Flame 20
25/1 Bar

At Fishers Cross romped away with the Albert Bartlett under a confident McCoy and a ton pf punters money but will he be aimed at this or be sent over fences? Solwhit will surely come back for another crack and Zarkandar would be interesting up in trip (although would Nicholls aim him at this, given he has Big Buck's)? Quevega will surely go to the mares hurdle and The New One for the Champion so Monksland could be one of the more interesting candidates at this stage.

Key trials are the Long Walk Hurdle, Cleeve Hurdle, Limestone Lad Hurdle and Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown and for those stepping up in trip possibly the Relkeel, Hatton's Grace and Ascot Hurdles as an intermediate step.
 
At Fishers Cross is my big fancy but I've already had a few nobbles on Bucks, can't be ingored but the injury could be tough to get over and I'm a big AFC fan.
 
Is AFC really 3/1? That is horrendous.

All we know at the moment is he's better than the novices. No way should he be 3/1 against the Champ, BB and reigning Champ, Solwhit. 7/1 is value for Solwhit. 4/1 is value for BB. 3/1 for an unproven novice stepping up is a joke.
 
3/1 is skinny, that's why I'm still hitting the 9/2 at skybet.

I think the price shows how highly he's rated, his form when beating The New One looks concrete, he will improve, connections have confirmed he's staying over hurdles and maybe his opponents are not the best.

Can I argue Solwhit, who is a solid, good horse but has he won a soft World Hurdle ?
Celestial Halo finishing 2nd seems to support this.

Zarkander is stepping upto 3m but didn't cover himself in glory when 4th in the Champion Hurdle, although the tighter Old Course didn't suit and his win at Aintree was solid, although first time blinkers can help but will they help further runs ?
 
Big Bucks at 4/1 is very tempting, but it makes sense to take the ongoing ante-post price just before his first run of the season. At least you'll know he'll have made it that far.
If his owner/trainer confirms that he goes straight to Cheltenham, then take it then.
Personally, you'd have to be 'couple of sheep short in the top paddock' to oppose the horse, even if you not sure of his well-being/ ability.
Of the others, I particularly like the French horse Gemix. He's only a five year old but has won his last three races- including the French Champion Hurdle. If you've not seen it, then I'd advise watching it on ATR. Solwhit cruised up to him, looking all over the winner, but Gemix, who had made all the running up to three out, simply surged back up to Solwhit and galloped 8 lengths clear.
Very impressive. The only question mark is that his wins were on testing ground, but 18/1 on Betfair appeals more than the other UK entrants.
Fisher's Cross is a ridiculous price. A fit Big Bucks will eat him and spit out the bits.
 
That's the horse I was on about, Gemix. Tremendous performance in the French Champion. Solwhit may have been a little over the top that day but even so, it was the most visually impressive longer distance hurdle performance of the year.
 
The first of the recognised trials, Newbury's Long Distance Hurdle, had only 5 runners but produced plenty of drama. First of all, outsider Battle Group downed tools at the start and refused to race. During the race, it was noticeable that At Fisher's Cross was not jumping as fluently as we had seen previously - probably a combination of the ground, freshness and the jockey change - as Celestial Halo bowled along in front in what looked like a soft lead. Barry Geraghty urged At Fisher's Cross to lay down a challenge approaching the 2nd last, where he was probably only a length down, but he corkscrewed horribly in the air and sprawled badly on landing, with Gergahty doing well to stay on board. This allowed Celestial Halo to cruise home unchallenged, winning by 17 lengths from Medinas who outbattled Reve De Sivola for 2nd. The betting for the World Hurdle was, as expected, shaken up significantly, with Big Buck's now favourite with most firms around the 3/1 mark. At Fishers Cross, Solwhit and Zarkandar are around double that price, but the big mover has been Celestial Halo who is now available at between 12/1 and 16/1 having been double that price before yesterday's race. Obviously has the same connections as Big Buck's but he looked awesome yesterday and the 22/1 still being offered by Sporting Bet this morning looks well worth an e/w dabble.
 
OddDog said:
Zarkandar would be interesting up in trip (although would Nicholls aim him at this, given he has Big Buck's)
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This is something I have thought about as well Oddy... If Big Bucks dosnt go then he will definitely put him in, but if he dos, then where do we go with Zarkandar...? Maybe the call from PN, he dosnt think Zarkandar is great going around Cheltenham, and that the track doesn't really suit him and all that, will influence him. But Zarkandar has run against a right motley crew of top horses and he is maybe a little short of the class needed to win a Champion Hurdle...

His win in the Aintree Hurdle shows he can win at the distance, all be it on a flatter track, and so it will be a big call for him on Zarkandar as to where he will put him... Miss Cheltenham for Aintree...??? Doesn't have the same kudos, but its still a big prize and tag for the winner...

I would say put him into the World Hurdle regardless of Big Bucks, and try him at Aintree in the 3m Hurdle as well... He may not be good enough to trouble em in the Champion Hurdle, but I do think he would have a better chance in this than the Champion...
 
I think Zarkandar is very much like Oscar Whiskey - just short of Champion Hurdle class over 2 miles but very, very good at 2m4f - his defeat of The New One at Aintree testifies to that. If I were them, I would try and farm the top 2m4f races throughout the season, and I think that is what they will do - started off at Ascot last week where he was trying to give a fair lump of weight to Annie Power. There's the Relkeel, National Spirit or Premier Kelso Hurdle and then races in Ireland to look at - Hatton's Grace for example (would've been too soon after the Ascot hurdle this time around). You could also have a go at the French Champion Hurdle with him. I think there are enough races around at 2m4f and upping him in trip could have the same result as with Oscar Whiskey - failure.
 
That's a fair point Oddy, I didn't really think about it like that...

I think you can take a bit out of that Annie Power defeat, and it prob makes sense to farm the 2m4f races, it would make me and the owners happy. But it would be good to win a big 'un, and that is where I think he is just short im afraid, as you say a little bit like what's happened to OW...
 
BIG BUCKS TO BE RIDDEN BY SAM TWISTON-DAVIES

Firstly congratulations to young Sam, what a ride to get! The main thing that intrigues me is that it's pretty safe to assume Ruby was offered the ride and turned it down as it was a badly kept secret that Andy Stewart wanted to keep Ruby on board. This leads on to the point how good does Ruby think ANNIE POWER is... I remember having a discussion about her prospects for the season before she ran and there can be little doubt now that she's a Championship horse. Big style. Whether that's Champion or World Hurdle it looks very much the later now. If I could roll the clock back to New Years day after she made Zarkander look like a plater I'd be taking those 8s Ladbrokes were offering for the World Hurdle!

Can Big Bucks give her 7lbs and a beating? Before this news this morning I'd have said it's likely, in the expectation Big Bucks is what he was. However the parameters have now changed considerably. It is now can Big Bucks give Annie Power, Ruby and 7lbs a beating... That looks an exceptionally big task and I'd now very, very much be in the camp of the mare.
 
Annie Power has an outstanding chance in the World Hurdle. Voler La Vedette gave him a race (although under a sly ride!) but Annie Power is another level of mare. The fact that Mullins is prepared to pitch her in here (which he refused to do with Quevega) tells us he is confident. The STD (what a set of intitials) situation must surely be a case of Ruby turning the ride down?

Personally I am convinced that Ruby doesn't think Big Bucks will come back the same horse. I hope he does, but at his age it is a massive ask. Love him to pieces though.
 
TopClass said:
Annie Power has an outstanding chance in the World Hurdle. Voler La Vedette gave him a race (although under a sly ride!) but Annie Power is another level of mare. The fact that Mullins is prepared to pitch her in here (which he refused to do with Quevega) tells us he is confident. The STD (what a set of intitials) situation must surely be a case of Ruby turning the ride down?

Personally I am convinced that Ruby doesn't think Big Bucks will come back the same horse. I hope he does, but at his age it is a massive ask. Love him to pieces though.
Click to expand...

I personally think that the ride on VDV was absolutely perfect and that she looked a lot closer to BB because of that... that said, I agree. Annie Power looks to be the best challenger to BB so far, possibly at his weakest time so far. Could be very exciting indeed... I like both, but I'd love to see BB put the mare in her place (and for AP to then go unbeaten for the rest of her career etc etc).

That said, if anyone knows how to beat Big Bucks, then as you say beefy, it's probably Ruby. If it was me then I think that Davy Russels attempt was about as good as you could hope for - get your horse as far away from BB as possible and try to jump him as late as possible so he has no time to respond. Annie Power may well have the kick to do it.
 
Andrew Lynch, not Davy Russell, rode Volar La Vedette in that memorable World Hurdle <ok>

For what its worth I thought he gave the mare a superbly judged ride, they were just up against a superstar at the peak of his powers
 
I would be very surprised if Ruby turned the horse down on a racing point of view regardless of what he thinks of Annies Power. He and Big Bucks have written history and would have been attempting to write some more and so I feel out of affection for that history and the horse he would have stuck with Big Bucks.

I would imagine that the real issue is one of character. By this I mean that Ruby is a man of integrity and he is aware he now works for Mullins alone. Although Mullins may have not said a word Ruby would know it would be poor form to take the rides on all his best horses through out the festival and come the world Hurdle do all he could to send a horse he has ridden and put work into for Mullins back a loser. He has likely put his own feelings behind his professional integrity.

I am not sure about the STD booking as I like him as a person but do wonder if he is top drawer. Looking ahead he could be full of confidence if the The New One has won the champion earlier in the week but if as I suspect he has not that could be quite a blow and he could be less confident. I know its an odd thing to say about a horse as superior as Big Bucks but I have always felt he needs a bit of riding. Sprinter Sacre I believe you could put any jockey on and get more or less the same performance ( anyone can pull a horse up when travelling :emoticon-0100-smile ) but I think the Jockey is more influential with Big Bucks.

On subject of Jockeys McCoy was brilliant on two of the rides I saw today

Goodwood Mirage - he won a race the horse tried to throw away at the two last fences.
Royal Boy - Stronger in the finish than BG on the stables second string.
 
Reve de Sivola at 16/1 with 888sport wouldn't be a bad bet. At least we know he will be going there?!
 
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