What Boris says here "he ran the last half mile faster than they did in the Champion hurdle over 5f shorter!" is what is going to make him the champ in March. His turn of foot frankly is fantastic especially off a decent pace. Cheltenham suits him down to a tee and id rather be on him than MTOY who found nothing off the bridle last time at chelters. HF was always going to be the danger but he also isnt best suited to the track. He Beat Zarkandar & RoR last year who are better over further with Countrywide Flame being the exception although his form before the race was good but not spectacular. He just didnt seem to quicken up as much as he would have in previous years and the final 2-3 furlongs will be crucial, if TNO can get round the last 2 without making jumping errors its his to lose.
My Tent reminds me a little of Harchibald and Relkeel. High cruising speed, moves like a dream and appears to be going better than anything. I wonder what he will be like when the chips are down.
I'm tending to agree with you Ron. I was almost buying into the idea perhaps we had a new Istabraq on our hands but I don't know, we've yet to see much substance in his form when you actually look at it. Certainly on what we've seen thus far of him, for a Champion Hurdle favourite, his form perhaps looks weaker than you'd like for a jolly in a top, top race as Mr Ferguson might say! The Neptune form looked really good on paper before the race, but in hindsight, with the jolly blowing out and Rule the World struggling against Zaidpour, Jezki et al is it really Champion Hurdle calibre? This season his, albeit visually impressive, defeat of Rock on Ruby had many people proclaiming we had just witnessed the 2014 Champion Hurdler and it was very easy to get carried away with that win after which the hypemachine from the media and racefans really started to crank up. However, if ever a horse is better suited round Cheltenham than anywhere else it's Rock on Ruby? Generally first time out, his record suggests he badly needs the run. The market backed this up on the day I recall. To the contrary, Mr Twiston-Davies horses are usually cherry ripe early season as he makes no secret of trying to win big pots early days when the more established Henderson, Nicholls yards are generally slower starters needing the run(s). The fact Rock on Ruby has now been sent chasing would be viewed as a negative rather than a positive. When you look at The New One's defeat of Zarkander in the International again you wonder how strong that form actually is? Zarkander would surely struggle to threaten in a Champion (we've seen this twice) or even place in one and it seems he's better over longer than the minimum trip. Zarkander was also pretty badly hampered in this race, so a literal translation of this again suggests The New One may come up slightly short when stepping up. It was in my view, his defeat at the hands of My Tent or Yours in the Christmas Hurdle which perhaps gives most cause for optimism. Whilst he was under extreme urgings to seal the race he was unable to shake off My Tent or Yours who, under a lovely AP ride sat on his tail in textbook fashion, to overpower him on the short run in. To be fair a slight mistake at the last may have made the difference but the result would not have been conclusive either way. His lack of tactical speed when they quickened would also set alarm bells going off in terms of a Champion Hurdle tilt but credit to the horse what he lacks in immediate acceleration he make up for in heart. Interesting when you consider how little it appeared that My Tent or Yours found against Champagne Fever in the Supremes but he found enough to stay on equally as well as the stamina horse The New One? Subsequent to that defeat there have been excuses (maybe not the ideal word) made that the Kempton course would never favour the New One but the money came in barrels for him on the day and we recall it was at Kempton were we witnessed the coming of the potential 2014 Champion Hurdler in his clear cut win over Rock on Ruby. Perhaps it suits dependent on the quality of the opposition? Some would suggest that aren't top, top horses meant to be able to win round a variety of tracks? The Twiston-Davies camp have came out in the aftermath of Kempton to state they will be employing a pacemaker in to ensure an even gallop. This will no doubt suit many of the top contenders but perhaps more worryingly for his supporters, is this an admission of a lack of Champion Hurdle winning gears? Let's not forget his visually impressive turn of foot was shown in a less than stellar Neptunes over 2m5f. I know I've repeated a lot of what has been said by other posters, but I thought I'd take a sit down to carry out an independent assessment myself to see whether the substance warrants the undoubted hype. It's an interesting debate isn't it? We don't know how good this horse is and that's probably part of the romanticism that surrounds him but from what we have seen, it's hard to know whether he justifies his position as Champion Hurdle 'jailcase'. The jury's still out for me, for a Champion Hurdle favourite I'd have a tendency to conclude there are as many questions as answers with the New One and I think a lot of people would need to see more from him than we have so far to justify his lofty reputation. I definitely see him with place credentials in a Champion Hurdle, but as it stands it's hard to see him winning one in clear cut fashion. I have intentionally avoiding mentioning his jumping, particularly at the business end of a race, as I think everyone who knows much about racing can see that is again something he must improve upon when facing better horses than he has up until now. Perhaps soft ground gives him his best chance, to blunt the speed of the others and let his copious stamina kick in if it becomes a real test? He's a lovely, lovely horse though and hopefully he's set to give his connections many happy days for years to come
Just wondering where The New One's turn of foot was at Kempton the other day? He quickened gradually off the bend but MTOY was comfotably shadowing him and TNO could not put distance between himself and the Henderson horse.
Rock On Ruby hacked up twice out of the 3 previous times he has been first time out, once off top weight in a competitive handicap. The vibes before the race were that he was plenty fit enough to do himself justice and lets not forget it was only TNO's first run aswell and he won 10 lengths eased down aboot half a furlong out. So where this Rock On Ruby needs it badly first time out has come from I dont know, seems people are just looking for reasons to knock TNO, and his so called massive hype, which ive yet to see or hear btw? Even if Rock On Ruby came on an incredible amount for the run, he would still have got beat 10 lengths in the Christmas hurdle. They obviously knew after that it was pointless keeping him over hurdles and going for the Champion, yet they were happy enough to be going that route knowing they have been closely matched with Hurricane Fly in recent years. Make no ****ing mistake people, these two English horses are coming in to the race on another level entirely to any hurdlers Hurricane Fly has ever faced at Cheltenham before. I simply dont believe that Hurricane Fly is improving as a 10yo as Mullins would like to going by his comments after the Ryanair. All we found out yesterday is Hurricane Fly is still running to a high level and Our Conor and Jezki have no chance in the Champion Hurdle as many suspected before. I said before the race, Our Conor would have to win nicely to even be considered a contender this year and if Jezki won you could forget the lot of them. But thank god The Fly will keep the price out.
He quickened off the bend and between the last two, believe me You just couldnt see if because he had the fastest speed horse in the country tracking him and also quickening.
Boris, why do you keep saying believe me like you're the oracle. Everyone has eyes. There's a few high class NH posters on here mate. I can tell you now, you saying believe me will not make me believe you. Why are you talking about the Fly needing to improve? He's rated 175 (8lbs higher than TNO's unjustifiable rating) and ran to 173 in last years renewal. He doesn't need to improve. The simple facts are that if the Fly hits his peaks TNO will have to hit Istabraq's level to win.
My view on The New One is based purely on watching him race against My Tent. Visually he didn't look so much a race horse as does My Tent, and I felt mid race that, whatever the result, My Tent would develop more by March. But, at the end of the day it's which one will battle the hardest when push comes to shove. I think My Tent may have more natural ability but does he have the grit of TNO? Which horse will come on the most from the Ryanair Hurdle? If The Fly will improve by at least 5lb, then those behind will have to make a lot more; how likely is that? Trying to decide which of the two Christmas races produced the better form is too difficult for me but, in my (very humble) view, neither of those two results will be reversed at Cheltenham. So in my book, by default, it's between The Fly and My Tent. The only horse that I fancied to beat The Fly this year -2013 - (Grandouet) fell 4 out when going well. So at 25/1 I have to include that one in the reckoning if he reverts to hurdling after a not too impressive bout of chasing.
The New One definitely started motoring round the final bend and the jockey looked like he was riding a motor bike. I remember thinking "**** he's going some" then noticed My Tent keeping with him, seemingly effortlessly (which is why he reminds me of Harchibald).
It wouldn't have been a great surprise this year Bob. He probably won't run but if he does, "old boy" Hendy knows what he's doing.
The need for a pacemaker in the Champion for The New One seems strange though for a horse with such speed to burn, which presumably they feel he has, based on the weight of money he carried into Boxing Day's race? A feature of the Kempton race was the ominous drift in the market for My Tent or Yours yet he still came out on top, and was in fact, cantering all over TNO from an awful long way out. If the market in fact suggested My Tent or Yours was not fully tuned up for the race (everyone agrees there were no track worries) perhaps he is in fact, the top English contender for March? Mr Henderson's record in the race compares with most. Which leads me to the rather bullish statements Mr Twiston-Davies has been making for the last 6months or so that The New One is 'the best I've trained' (= hype). But then again what Champion Hurdle horse has he had to measure him against? He's better than Kyber Kym though we're reliably informed. That one finished between Binocular and Zaynar in the 2010 renewal. I just think we need to see more from him to be considered a 'jailcase'. He's progressive, he stays and he definitely could be in the mix but from what we've seen on track I can only admire your bullishness Master!
Well all Twiston Davies has said is "hes as good a hurdler as weve had" and I think the horse has already proved that so its not really hype coming from them, they were gracious in defeat at Kempton while obviously gutted. The racing media doesnt appear to be overly hyping one horse over the other, all 3 will get equal coverage in the lead up to the race im sure, with Hurricane Fly probably getting the most and rightly so. I think we all agree, and the market seems to agree, its Hurricane Fly vs the 2 english horses. Hopefully they go 7/2 the 3 on the day and we can all get a reasonable price on the one we fancy.
just looking back on whats been posted today, I only said believe me once bob And you think beating Rock On Ruby and Countrywide Flame a couple of lengths, and the very same Zarkandar by the very same distance, over the very same distance as TNO did, is worth 173 but your crabbing TNO rating Hurricane Fly struggled to beat two horses at Cheltenham last year that TNO has absolutely hammered already this season. Hes a great, great horse, no one can ever dispute that, but he will need to put up the performance of his life as a 10yo this year to beat TNO or My Tent
I haven't even looked at the form and doubt it will make any difference if I did to be honest. The top horses are trained above all else to be at their peak at the Festival. So whoever has met who outside of Cheltenham, only the trainers know to within how many pounds of their best they were running.
Isn't this what's great about this sport! I'm all for HF because he's proven it time and time again but he's like the Roger Federer of horse racing you know he's great still and put him at a venue he likes he can still be number 1, but we could have Nadal (TNO) or Djokovic (MTOY) coming to take his crown. Very exciting stuff bring on March. Sorry about the crappy tennis analogy but it does seem a similar scenario albeit in a very different sport
Sod it, I looked at the form. Very confusing so to keep it simple: Champagne Fever has beaten TNO, Jezki and My Tent. Defy Logic beat CF by 14½L. DL was beaten comfortably by Annie Powers. Annie Powers wins the Champion Hurdle - simple. Wait, CF was beaten 17l by Jezki. Bollocks. I think I'll just leave it to you experts. Meanwhile I'll stick to my earlier summary.
