Haha there will be plenty more sweating people on thier ante post betting, between now and the Festival- Will be interesting to see who rides him next week tho!
You can't have been anything but disappointed by the Hurricane's comeback run and that's coming from his biggest fan... On the plus side his reappearance in last years race against the ill-fated Go Native wouldn't have been impressive either had he jumped the last. I hate to say it but I can't help but come round and say at the very least, The New One, looks a very worthy favourite at the minute.
The Fighting Fifth at Newcastle was taken in impressive style by Mr Henderson's My Tent Or Yours and as a result he is challenging The New One for favouritism for the race. As usual, he travelled strongly throughout the race and when McCoy switched him to the inside to deliver his challenge he powered away from his rivals to win by 3 lengths from Cockney Sparrow. Unfortunately for the form, the second highest rated horse prior to the race, Melodic Rendezvous, ran very flat and was one of the first beaten. However, MTOY could do no more than win and he will now head to Kempton a hot favourite for the Christmas Hurdle. In terms of the Champion Hurdle he is anywhere between 7/2 and 9/2 with The New One 7/2 - 4/1 and Our Conor 9/2 - 5/1. Interestingly a couple of firms are now going 13/2 about Hurricane Fly, a monster price in my opinion, he is generally between 5s and 6s. Last weekend Annie Power came across to Ascot and beat Zarkandar 5 lengths in the Ascot Hurdle. The mare was in receipt of 11lbs from Zarkandar but won with some authority and clearly enters the Champion Hurdle picture based on that run (especially as Mr Nicholls has his string in such fine form - you'd have to think Zarkandar was in pretty good nick). 12/1 is now the best price available for Annie Power for the big one, although it's anyone's guess as to whether she will run.
Patrick Mullins letter into the Racing Post is a shining example of putting form into perspective. Lads, read that letter and tell me Hurricane Fly is going to lose at Cheltenham in 2014. He is not going to lose.
This is the letter here It's an excellent letter. His age is the obvious worry, it's not easy for 10 year olds to win these type of races, especially one whose career started on the Flat as a 2 year old. He's an exceptional horse for what he's done, I only wish his opponents this year weren't half his age!
Stick, you can't possibly be bullish about The New One at this stage. His Neptune is working out awfully.
He has one more Champion Hurdle imo then Mullins will call it a day. I know he is now ten and as you say beefy the opposition are half his age, but look at the likes of Kauto he was a special horse but so is the Champ. He has been a good few pounds better than the field the past few years, yes he is getting older and he is coming back to the field with the likes of The New One, MTOY and Our Conor (who is still run- so how anyone can back him antepost is beyond me) He has proven it over this track (which apparently is not his track) at the highest level, none of these have. The New one is a good horse but the neptune form isnt working out and is still young and prbly will be a future Champion Hurdler but dont forget he was beaten last year by Zarkandar who isnt a bad horse and is a good yard stick but hes no champion hurdle horse. Our Conor very impressive blowing the field away in the triumph but may just lack the experince round the track, MTOY the biggest danger to the Fly was expected to win the supreme but was beaten by a chetlenham specialist he will definately be a Champion Hurdler Winner one day but still has abit to find on the champ. Altho he is getting older, you know he dig deeps and will not shy away from a battle and that matched with his fantastic ability he will have champion hurdle number 3 with MTOY in close second
He hosed up in the Neptune Bob so it doesn't matter a great deal what was behind him for me. I have been "bullish" about the horse since I first saw him jump a hurdle and he hasn't exactly let me down has he. I wish I could turn back the clock and take some more of that 8-1.
A 10 year-old Hurricane Fly being toppled at Cheltenham by these whipper snappers holds the same merit as Leon Spinks beating an old Muhammed Ali on his decline. Hurricane Fly would be lapping these horses a season or two ago
Not true. I've had a small bet on The New One at 8/1 but my point is purely based on the book and it's not looking good at this stage.
Hurricane didnt look his imperious best at Cheltenham and I dunno how I rate last years win. People talk about the Neptune form but HFs Champion Hurdle form does not look good at all. Personally I loved Hurricane Fly about 4 years ago when he started demolishing Irish fields. I think had he been fit, he would have won 3 Champion Hurdles at least. He is a great champion but I do think he will meet his match this year. If Hutricane beats New One/Our Conor/Tent/Jezki with them all turning up, he will go down alongside Istabraq. He is the best of the last 10 years, but I think any talk of his statistics are a bit silly in that there are around 10 small field Grade Ones. But that isnt his fault and he has done well to race so long in NH for a horse of his size and breeding. I think he has never shown his absolute best at Cheltenham but a win this year would be outstanding. I just think a balanced perspective is required. He is a great Champion, but think hard before anyone says greatest. Great battle set with Our Conor soon! Hopefully My Tent Or Yours to win the Christmas hurdle against New One iat Kempton and then we can take a bigger price on him to reverse that at Cheltenham when it counts.
I don't think we'll be seeing The New One at Kempton will we? Plan is to go for the International on Dec 14th so I reckon that is too close to Kempton and they'll give him a prep before Cheltenham at either Sandown or Wincanton?
Have you read Mullins letter mentioned above TC? Small fields? Yes. But small fields full of grade one winners. I wouldn't and haven't said he's the greatest but the facts don't lie. He wins almost every time he runs and almost every time he races there are previous grade one horses in the field. He's a few lbs better than the rest IMHO. A solid 170 horse when fully primed. The others are mid 160's. No piece of form could lead people to think The New One, Our Connor, Jezki or MTOY has run higher than mid 160's so far in their careers and that is probably a little generous. If they improve to being genuine 170 horses the yes, he might struggle at his advancing age but as the land lies he'll have to regress as a horse in March to lose.
Yeah mate, great read. As I said, he is head and shoulders the best of his generation. He is a fantastic price to back at this year if anyone fanciee the Hurricane hat trick.. Any rain at Cheltenham would surely give him a right mighty chance? Il have a good look at his form later, it makes interesting discussion.
Hopefully Our Connor will be ready at Christmas and we can finally have a serious trial race. I agree on pure form alone Hurricane Fly should probably be favourite but I think the bookies have taken a presumption that at least one of the younger horses will make the necessary improvement this season to beat him. 'The New One' has that X factor about him and at present he would be my idea of the winner but its fair to say he's not been suffciently tested yet against a race fit, top class rival. It's funny but our Connor could end up becoming the forgotten horse at this rate. The form of the Triumph hasn't worked out too badly the last few months and we have to remember he decimated that field.
The New One is the biggest Champion Hurdle jailcase ive ever seen, even more so than a prime Hurricane Fly was the year he won his first because hes proven at the track. 8/1 was without a shadow of a doubt, the bet of the jump season. My Tent was class at Newcastle and will be class at Kempton if he runs there, hes a flat track speed horse, wont get near The New One up the hill. Hurricane Fly is past his best, absolutely no doubt about it and Our Conor has beat nothing, Jezki is a better horse going right handed and was well beat in the Supreme, hard to see him reversing the form with My Tent. That race is done and dusted, just hope The New One gets there on the day, hes got too many gears and too much heart for My Tent, Our Conor wont be able to cope with him and only Hurricane Fly at his very best would be able to challenge him. Cheltenham is not Hurricane Flys track, despite him winning two Champions.
