Yes MOG, you picked Treve. Well done, best Arc winner I've ever seen. But like everyone else, you've picked losers in you're time too, some of which you were very bullish on like Hidden Cyclone, The Liquidator etc too I'm hoping TNO is another of the later
I wasnt, sometimes when I am steaming and everyone else has chucked the towel in I like to get my Treve on. 3/1 for the Arc next year could be the greatest bet of all time, nothing around in her class, but I suppose 3/1 for a race that far away, with the potential for a new superstar 3yo its not that appealing, its unlikely anything of her ilk will appear though and 3/1 could look enormous when she is 8/11 on the day
Im always bullish about Hidden Cyclone, even when I expect it to lose. Dont remember being that bullish about the Liquidator, backed it heavy but it was more me thinking it was a poor race than thinking the liquidator was that good.
You are reading too much into it Ive said, TNO in the Champion Hurdle is the most confident ive ever been about a jumps bet, but still nowhere near Treve level, or New Approach in the Derby level, or So You Think in the Prince Of Wales to beat Carlton Grp2 House. Jump racing is too much of a sentimental obstacle lottery to ever have those levels of confidence.
If Hurricane Fly wins or comes 2nd in the 2014 Champion Hurdle on Tuesday 11th March, at the Cheltenham Festival, we will refund losing stakes on every horse in the race, as a free bet up to £/€25. -Ladbrokes offer. Will be interesting to see the Paddy specials when they roll out.
Paddy made the mistake of taking on the Champ last year didn't he And Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle before that, so he's been caught out the last 2 years bless him! The Champion though is that hard to call this year (unless you're MOG of course ), on the day it'll be 4/1 the field IMO so would imagine they'll want a race where there's a shorty in to take on. Champagne Fever in the Arkle maybe?
I wonder if Quevega might be the one they take on big. Big Bucks might be a target for the bookies later in the week too.
You must be on the wind-up Toppy to suggest they'd take on Quevega! Even our friend stick would reluctantly concede that's one race going to the 'Paddies'
I certainly won't be laying her! All I was thinking that she is the only real short price 'banker' on day one in the sense that she will be odds on/evens at best and with another year on her back and reports of a slight issue in her prep a few weeks ago, they might take on Quevega and really get the punters piling money into their firm? I think she would be the best publicity generator, if that makes sense? She had nearly everything go wrong last year and still came through to win going away so it would be brave to take her on, but I think that would be a typical Paddy play. You never know with an older mare- she might just have enough one of these years- it will be a real shame when she does finish racing.
That was so funny last year, when we backed every horse in graded stakes to get a return no matter what Shame it was just a £100 max though!
Toppy- I see where you're coming from about PP wanting to stick Quevega in the offer but I suspect they may want to try something else which may give them a chance?! It's nigh impossible, IMO, to see her beat given she lines up. Reebs- Yes, I recall some very complicated mathematics going on prior to the 2012 Arkle for people looking a guaranteed return but I just kept it simple and lumped on Sprinter on the day, I remember it well as he was one of the very, very few 2012 Festival winners I had
That might be because superstar 3yo arc winners get retired after it. Treve was always going to be better physically as a 4yo, Head-Maarek didnt even want to run her in it last season because she didnt think she would be ready for it. As long as the "not training on" anomaly doesnt strike she will be unbeatable from 1m to 1m4 this season, good chance she will be running over here at some point too, Prince Of Wales is probably more likely than the King George as im sure she will be given plenty of time before the Vermille. She could of carried 10 stone and won the Arc last year, giving a few pounds to in all likelihood, average 3yos wont be a problem. If another special 3yo appears then that changes things.
I know there's some confidence for The New One on here and from some very good tipsters too but the more i look at the race i really can't see the horse been in the first 3 home!
You really have started a discussion here now haha! For me this all depends on whether Sam Twister has the cock AND balls to deliver TNO late. Whoever wins I think will be a decisive winner. TNO has a turn of foot to match any of these and Our Conor travels like a monster. Hurricane Fly looked brilliant two starts back when held up. Best of luck to all and hope we see a spectacular performance.
When the day arrives for this race to be run I think there will be more interest in this particular race than any other at the festival judging by the thoughts, ideas and plans made by the Not606 forumites...!!! Lets just hope that all the runners make it to the start and that we get a race to match this thread... And just for my opinion at the moment im in TNO's camp... Though that could change yet...
