2012 World Thoroughbred Rankings

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PNkt

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Jul 25, 2011
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The Final World Thoroughbred Rankings for 2012 will be released at noon today.

Usually the press are notified of the ratings 24 hours in advance so that they can prepare their stories, questions, etc, but this year the IFHA have decided to keep Frankel's final rating underwraps until the last possible moment.

Will he surpass Dancing Brave's 141? Just another 90 minutes until we find out!
 
Frankel left at 140 but Dancing Brave downgraded to 138 - that will set the cat among the pigeons <yikes>

Never an easy job of course, but I have to say I disagree with that assessment, Frankel never faced a field of the quality of Dancing Brave's Arc. He also didn't run over 12F, whereas Dancing Brave won the Guineas, Eclipse, King George and Arc in his 3YO season.
 
Agree Oddy but this calibration doesn't take into account versatility over a range of range of trips or the ability to travel.

I'm actually staggered they lowered DB's rating and as you say it will provoke a heated debate...that will be fun!

It appears to indicate a desire to place Frankel at the top of the tree by hook or by crook!

These matters are more subjective than evidence based and ultimately about a bunch of individuals opinions at a given moment in time.
 
From my understanding, Dancing Brave's downgrading is not a reflection on his ability per se, more that the handicappers were a tad over zealous in the early days of the WTR. In 1986 they rated 6 horses at 130 or above, whereas in 2011 only 2 were given such a lofty rating (Frankel and Black Caviar).

The ratings only cover horses to have raced in the last 26 years, so they will never be a true comparison. However, it is right that Frankel has been acknowledged as one of the all time greats, anything less would have been a travesty.
 
From Racing Post:


Frankel top of the tree as Brave is downgraded

By James Burn 11:01AM 15 JAN 2013

FRANKEL has been confirmed as the best horse since official classifications began in 1977 after Dancing Brave's previous high of 141 was downgraded 3lb by World Thoroughbred Rankings handicappers on Tuesday.

That leaves Frankel at the top of the pile on 140 after Alleged and Shergar were dropped from that mark to 134 and 136.

In October it was revealed the 141 allotted to Dancing Brave for his brilliant Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe success in 1986 was in part awarded as a present for retiring handicapper David Swannell.

Modern-day assessors have, however, revised that rating and Frankel, unbeaten in a 14-race career which included ten Group 1 wins, now stands alone.

"Frankel is the new benchmark for equine excellence," said Garry O'Gorman, senior handicapper of the Turf Club and co-chairman of the World Rankings Supervisory Committee.

The WTR, which started as the International Classifications in 1977, were revealed in a London hotel on Tuesday and featured Cirrus Des Aigles, runner-up to Frankel in the Champion Stakes in October, in second place on the list on 131, 1lb higher than crack miler Excelebration and star sprinter Black Caviar.

Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner I'll Have Another, whose career ended through injury before he could bid for Triple Crown glory in the Belmont Stakes, was best three-year-old colt.

However, his mark of 125 - 1lb higher than Camelot and Gold Ship - is the lowest in the history of the rankings for the division.

Godolphin took the honours in the juvenile categories with Dewhurst hero Dawn Approach (124) topping the colts' list and Fillies Mile winner Certify (114) best of the two-year-old fillies.

More to follow ...​
 
No one can doubt Frankel's place in the highest echelon of turf greats.

I agree the downgrading of DB is a revisionist move in reaction to some "lenient marking" in the 80's and beyond.

Does that mean we adjust all historical ratings in line with the new top benchmark?...that would be quite an undertaking and woiuld no doubt provoke quite a lot of debate.
 
Full Press Release here:


2012 was a remarkable year for global horseracing. For the first time since the inauguration of the World Thoroughbred Rankings (WTR) in 2004, there are four horses rated 130+ and one horse who has reached the almost mythical 140 mark. South American horses appear in the WTR for the very first time with three from Argentina, three from Brazil, two from Chile and one from Peru warranting a rating of 115 or higher. A truly global classification of the merits of racehorses has now come to pass.

The British-trained four year old colt FRANKEL (GB) [140] remained unbeaten during 2012, adding five Group 1s to his tally and improving his 2011 rating of 136 to a new historical high of 140 in 2012. While he first attained that rating over 1600m in the Queen Anne Stakes (G1) at Royal Ascot when he annihilated the field by 11 lengths and more, he also proved that he was equally good moved up in distance for the first time to 2000m in the Juddmonte International Stakes (G1) at York. Quite apart from achieving the highwater mark of 140 in these two races, what is astonishing about his career record is the fact that he ran to a mark of 130 or higher on eight separate occasions and on six of those occasions he achieved a race rating of 135 or higher. To put this sustained consistent brilliance in perspective, his nearest rival in recent times – Sea the Stars (IRE) [136] (2009) – achieved a race rating of 130+ on three occasions, and only one of those was 135 or higher. From a European perspective, while eight horses have been champion racehorse at both two and three years of age since the International Classifications commenced in 1977, Frankel (GB) this year became the first horse to be officially a champion (or joint champion) at two, three and four years of age during that period. An outstanding racehorse, it is fair to say in the circumstances that he constitutes a new benchmark for equine excellence on the racecourse.

Furthermore, a historical recalibration of ratings sees Frankel crowned officially the highest rated horse since the international rankings began in 1977, 2lb ahead of his nearest rival Dancing Brave (USA) [138 adjusted] (1986). Aware of on-going speculation and debate about the variance in the levels of the ratings, the World Thoroughbred Rankings Supervisory Committee commissioned a review, the findings of which are published today, into the last 35 years of ratings. The primary purpose of the review was to acknowledge that handicapping methods and practices have evolved during the past 35 years and the resulting recalibration was designed to show how the ratings would look if they were being assessed on current levels. The official World Rankings Supervisory Committee paper, a preface by the Co-Chairmen and a revised ranking list of top horses since 1977 can be found attached to this release.

The remarkable Australian mare BLACK CAVIAR (AUS) [130] also retained her unbeaten career record during 2012 adding a further five Group 1s to her record with her most notable victory taking place at Flemington in February, when she defeated top class sprinters with ease, most notably HAY LIST (AUS) [125], in the Coolmore Lightning Stakes (G1). While Black Caviar’s rating is 2lb lower than in 2011, it should be noted that it would be practically impossible, given her style of running, to emulate that level of performance in terms of ratings running exclusively in weight for age races (where she was in receipt of a sex allowance of 2kg (4lb)) as she did during 2012. A rating of 130 therefore should be seen as a reflection of that reality rather than an indication that she was not as good in 2012 as she was in 2011, when she achieved her rating giving weight to both male and female horses on handicap terms in the Lexus Newmarket Handicap (G1). Strikingly, just seven days before her Lightning victory, she ran over 1400m for the first time in the Sportingbet C.F Orr Stakes (G1) at Caulfield and her victory there entitled her to the status of top older female miler in the world during 2012. While Australia has only been a member of the World Thoroughbred Rankings Committee since 2004, it is telling that no European filly/mare since the commencement of the International Classifications in 1977 ranks higher than Black Caviar (AUS) (and her 132 rating from 2011). Just as Frankel (GB) has set the standard for overall equine excellence, so Black Caviar (AUS) has set the new benchmark for equine distaff excellence.

Hay List (AUS), in winning the Lexus Newmarket Handicap (G1), achieved the highest rating for an older male turf sprinter (alongside the Singapore sprinter ROCKET MAN (AUS) [125] (2011)) since the commencement of WTR in 2004 but it is fair to say that he has largely been in the shadow of Black Caviar (AUS) during his career. The same comment can certainly apply to the Irish-trained miler EXCELEBRATION (IRE) [130], who finished behind Frankel on all five occasions they have met (beaten an average of over five lengths on each occasion) but who showed improved form (in the absence of his nemesis) in winning the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (G1) very impressively on QIPCO British Champions Day at Ascot in October.

His failure to win the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) a fortnight later at Santa Anita can, in part, be explained by the sheer excellence of the opposition there, most notably, the North-American-trained gelding WISE DAN (USA) [129], whose performance in winning that race marks him out as the joint best North American turf racehorse, along with NORTHERN SPUR (IRE) [129] (1995), since they joined the International Classifications in 1995. Winner of three Group 1s on turf, he narrowly lost in the Stephen Foster Handicap (G1) at Churchill Downs on dirt (but emerged as the best horse in the race at the weights running to a mark of 123) while his one performance on a synthetic surface, in the Ben Ali Stakes (G3) at Keeneland, was startlingly impressive and earned him top rank in the non-Turf miler category (125). His versatility and brilliance over three different surfaces is reminiscent of Lava Man (USA) [127] (2006) earlier this century and if he stays fit and well (with no stud prospects on the horizon) he may well evolve into a 21st century John Henry.

CIRRUS DES AIGLES (FR) [131] is, like Wise Dan (USA), an evergreen gelding who is getting better with age. Rated 118 as a four year old in 2010, he jumped to 128 last year before attaining a career high of 131 in winning the Prix Ganay (G1) at Longchamp in April, and then the Prix Dollar (G2) at Longchamp in October before running up to Frankel (GB) in the QIPCO Champion Stakes (G1) at Ascot two weeks later. He is the highest rated French-trained horse along with MANDURO (GER) [131] (2007) since the WTR began in 2004. Another notable French feat in 2012 was having two 3yo fillies, both owned by the Aga Khan, sharing the accolade of top 3yo filly in the Intermediate category (2000m), namely the ill-fated VALYRA (GB) [120], who won the Prix de Diane Longines (G1) at Chantilly in June, and RIDASIYNA (FR) [120], who won the Prix de l’Opera Longines (G1) at Longchamp in October.

One disappointing feature of the 2012 season was the quality of the European classic colts which were, in general, not up to their usual standard. The standout colt was the Irish-trained CAMELOT (GB) [124] who was champion European juvenile in 2011 before winning the first two legs of the ‘Triple Crown’, namely the QIPCO 2000 Guineas (G1) at Newmarket and the Investec Derby (G1) at Epsom before narrowly failing, raised in distance, to win the third leg, the Ladbrokes St Leger (G1) at Doncaster where he lost to the British-trained colt, ENCKE (USA) [120]. The performance of Camelot (GB) in the 2000 Guineas [119] was the joint best performance in the world in the 3yo Miler colt division alongside two other Guineas winners, namely the South African-trained VARIETY CLUB (SAF) [119] (KRA Guineas (G1) at Greyville in May) and the Australian-trained half brother to Black Caviar (AUS), ALL TOO HARD (AUS) [119] (Beck Caulfield Guineas (G1) in October). Camelot (GB)’s authoritative win in the Investec Derby [124] was also the joint top Turf performance by a three year old in the world alongside the Japanese-trained GOLD SHIP (JPN) [124]. Gold Ship (JPN) was accorded a rating of 124 for his impressive performance in winning the Arima Kinen (G1) against the older horses in Tokyo in late December. Gold Ship (JPN) had earlier won two legs of the Japanese Triple Crown and his rating of 124 is the joint highest rating for a Japanese three year old colt (alongside Deep Impact (JPN) [124] (2005)) since WTR began in 2004.


Conts....
 
Continues...


If the Japanese Classic crop was well up to scratch, the same could justifiably be said of the Australian three years olds, most notably the crack filly ATLANTIC JEWEL (AUS) [122] and the champion Turf male sprinter SEPOY (AUS) [122]. Atlantic Jewel (AUS) was Champion (or joint Champion) Three Year Old Turf filly over 1600m and 2000m and rated 121 for her performances in the first half of her three year old season during the latter half of 2011, but she came back at Randwick racecourse in April showing remarkable versatility to win over 1200m in the Yellowglen Sapphire Stakes (G2), improving her rating in the process to 122, a figure which is 4lb better than the next best three year old female turf sprinter since 2004 (Moonlight Cloud (GB) [118] (2011)). SEPOY (AUS) [122] is still the best male turf three year old sprinter since WTR began even though he rated 1lb lower than his 2011 mark in 2012 when his best performance was in being beaten only a length on handicap terms in the Sportingbet Oakleigh Plate (G1) in February.

In Europe, the German classic crop of colts was high quality in nature and this is reflected in the fact that the only two 3yos to win in WFA company in Europe against the older horses in 2012 were both German-trained, most notably PASTORIUS (GER) [122], whose best performance was in winning the Grosser Dallmayr-Preis Bayerisches Zuchtrennan (G1) in Munich by eight lengths over 2000m in July, which made him top 3yo turf performer over 2000m in the world during 2012, the first time a German-trained colt has received such an accolade since WTR commenced in 2004. His compatriot DANEDREAM (GER) [124] did not quite emulate her Arc level of performance during 2012 but in winning the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (G1) (Sponsored by Betfair) in a photo finish from the ultra-consistent British colt NATHANIEL (IRE) [126] she is the top older mare in the world over 2400m and indeed alongside SNOW FAIRY (IRE) [124], she would rank second only to GOLDIKOVA (IRE) [130] (2009) in the hierarchy of older European turf females since 2004. The sensational British-trained mare Snow Fairy (IRE) was rated 120 in 2010, 122 in 2011 and improved her rating to a career high of 124 when she beat the colts in the Red Mills Irish Champion Stakes (G1) at Leopardstown &#8211; a performance that marks her down as the best 2000m older mare in Europe since Bosra Sham (USA) [131] (1997).

The non-turf category of Champions is dominated by performers in the UAE and the USA. MONTEROSSO (GB) [126] and KRYPTON FACTOR (GB) [124] were both especially impressive and topped their categories for winning the Dubai World Cup (G1) (sponsored by Emirates Airlines) and the Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1) (sponsored by Gulf News) respectively on the synthetic surface at Meydan. The American colt I&#8217;LL HAVE ANOTHER (USA) [125] defeated BODEMEISTER (USA) [124] in the first two legs of the American Triple Crown before being retired because of injury. His performance in the Preakness (G1) at Pimlico was the best performance by a three year colt on any surface during 2012 and indeed it is the first time since 2006 that a North American dirt three year old colt has topped the overall world three year old listing (Bernardini (USA) and Discreet Cat (USA) both 128 in 2006). Among the North American females ROYAL DELTA (USA) [121] and GROUPIE DOLL (USA) [121] stood out.

Royal Delta (USA) once again topped the older mare non turf 1600m to 2000m categories and improved her rating from 2011 by 2lb in winning the Breeders Cup Ladies Classic (G1) at Santa Anita Park in November. Groupie Doll (USA) completely dominated the female dirt sprint division with impressive victories in the Humana Distaff (G1) at Churchill Downs in May and in the Breeders Cup Fillies and Mares Sprint (G1) in November. Her rating of 121 makes her the best female dirt sprinter since WTR began in 2004. FORT LARNED (USA) [125] was the best older dirt colt in the world following his win in the Breeders&#8217; Cup Classic (G1) while the strong turf contingent in North America in 2012 included two three-time Group 1 winners worthy of note &#8211; LITTLE MIKE (USA) [123] and POINT OF ENTRY (USA) [123].

The South American contingent, included for the first time in WTR, is headed by a progressive Brazilian-trained three year old colt, GOING SOMEWHERE (BRZ) [119] who defeated the Argentinean-trained three year old INDY POINT (ARG) [118] and the older Brazilian-trained colt DIDIMO (BRZ) [115] in the prestigious Carlos Pellegrini (G1) on turf at San Isidro racecourse in Buenos Aires in late December. Indy Point (ARG) had earlier achieved the same rating when winning the Gran Premio Nacional (G1) on dirt in November, while Didimo (BRZ) had won two Group 1 races in Brazil prior to running in Argentina. The Carlos Pellegrini is the South American equivalent of the King George VI Stakes in Europe and it is where the best horses in South America converge to meet each other and it obviously helps the local Handicappers enormously in assessing the relative merits of the South American horses. It is further helpful when horses from South America travel elsewhere in the world and 2012 marked the first time South American-trained horses competed at Breeders Cup with the Argentinean-trained Calidoscopio (ARG) winning the Breeders&#8217; Cup Marathon (G2).
 
The main premise, from my skim reading of the introduction, is that they acknowledge that the main issue is that they operate a method of "top down" handicapping, whereas the BHA (for example) use "bottom up". It inevitably leads to a good horse getting a higher than necessary rating if the horses beneath him were of a lower than usual standard.
 
Can't read all that at present but having looked through it there does seem to be plenty of evidence of objectivity.
 
For those that can't read the pdf, the overall ratings have been adjusted as follows:

BEFORE SUGGESTED CHANGES

RATING HORSE AGE SEX COUNTRY


141 Dancing Brave 3c GB
140 Alleged 4c Ire
140 Frankel 4c GB
140 Shergar 3c GB
138 El Gran Senor 3c Ire
137 Generous 3c GB
137 Peintre Celebre 3c Fr
137 Three Troikas 3f Fr
136 Sea The Stars 3c Ire
136 Suave Dancer 3c Fr
136 Troy 3c GB
135 Blushing Groom 3c Fr
135 Cigar 6h USA
135 Daylami 5h GB
135 Harbinger 4c GB
135 Ile De Bourbon 3c GB
135 Montjeu 3c Fr
135 Reference Point 3c GB
135 Slip Anchor 3c GB
135 St Jovite 3c Ire
135 Teenoso 4c GB
135 The Minstrel 3c Ire


AFTER SUGGESTED CHANGES

RATING HORSE AGE/SEX COUNTRY


140 Frankel 4c GB
138 Dancing Brave 3c GB (down 2lb)
137 Peintre Celebre 3c Fr
136 Generous 3c GB (down 1lb)
136 Sea The Stars 3c Ire
136 Shergar 3c GB (down 4lb)
135 Cigar 6h USA
135 Daylami 5h GB
135 El Gran Senor 3c Ire (down 3lb)
135 Harbinger 4c GB
135 Montjeu 3c Fr
135 St Jovite 3c Ire
135 Suave Dancer 3c Fr (down 1lb)
134 Alleged 4c Ire (down 6lbs)
134 Dubai Millennium 4c UAE
134 El Condor Pasa 4c Jpn
134 Helissio 3c Fr
134 Pilsudski 5h GB
133 Hawk Wing 4c Ire
133 Mark Of Esteem 3c GB
133 Old Vic 3c GB
133 Reference Point 3c GB
133 Sakhee 4c GB
133 Zilzal 3c GB


THREE TROIKAS, TROY, BLUSHING GROOM, ILE DE BOURBON, SLIP ANCHOR, TEENOSO & THE MINSTREL all drop out of the top ratings.
 
Frankel left at 140 but Dancing Brave downgraded to 138 - that will set the cat among the pigeons

Setting the cat amongst the pigeons should be more like setting the lion amongst the wildebeest.

I have probably made this argument on this forum previously if not on the old BBC 606 forum: trying to compare horses from different eras is completely pointless. When horses like Ribot raced more than half a century ago, they did not race on the lush, perfectly-maintained turf that their modern day descendants enjoy and did not benefit from modern veterinary science, training techniques and facilities.

Trying to compare Frankel with Brigadier Gerard would be an exercise in futility. We should just accept that they were two of the greatest horses.

I do not agree with the retrospective downgrading of Dancing Brave&#8217;s rating as he beat the greatest field ever assembled for the Prix de l&#8217;Arc de Triomphe based on their ratings on the day. I will have to trawl through the numbers and see how Bering, Triptych, Shardari, Shahrastani and Acatenango have been demoted. There were four &#8216;Derby&#8217; winners in that race and the easy winner was not one of them.

If Dancing Brave had to give Peintre Celebre one pound and Generous and Shergar two pounds in a handicap, he would be long odds on with the bookies.

I am sure that somebody around here will have comment to make on the demotion of Shergar. I bet Ian Balding&#8217;s &#8220;second best&#8221; horse will get a mention... again.

If they are going to &#8220;adjust&#8221; these classifications every twenty years, they will lose all credibility. Perhaps they should just have awarded Frankel 142 and left everything else alone.
 
It still looks a bit out of kilter but it is opinions at the end if the day.

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If they can retrospectively reconstruct the ratings from 20+ years ago, why not go the whole hog and go back to Ribot and beyond.

Timeform rated higher than 135 not included in the BTR table

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