Interesting that SWC's father stated that his son would not be the first to make a mistake at Fakenham. In other words he,like the stewards and the rest of us,bar poor old Dick Pitman,thought he son was lying. I find it hard to wish for a Long Run win in the KG after such blatant mendacity and deception by the owners son. Disgusting behaviour.
True Oddy...especially if he beats the King!!..Sam could be lynched! Think LR will take the beating though. Btw Wayne Hutchinson has come back,as you predicted,to some great form.Smashing ride to beat the champ today in a driving finish after lifting the big'un at Ascot on Saturday...Very able deputy for Choc currently. Hopefully the owners and AK stick by him when the higher profile rides are up for grabs.
I googled that place where you are going on holiday Dex - have you ever ventured up in to Portugal from there ? Not very far at all. We were on holiday in the summer not far from Sesimbra. Lovely part of the world
Woolcombe... Age as caught up with Master Minded? Hes 8 years old probably about to hit his prime. Im guessing you meant Kauto Star who is about to hit 12 years of age but even he isn't showing signs of wanting to call it a day... I'd love to know why people think Master Minded as no chance, Its easy to go '' He as no chance '' and leave it at that, Through the years the amount of times I have heard that line '' He won't stay '' and they are proved wrong, I heard the exact same thing about Kauto Star after he flopped in the Queen Mother and he was upped in trip and look what he as gone on to achieve. Tom Segal as backed against Kauto Star every single year for the past 5 and hes been proved once I take what he says with a pinch of salt espcially in this race. Master Minded stayed well enough at Aintree on relatively good ground and as a good record on the predicted ground at Kempton - Good to Soft. Look at his pedigree on the dam's side there is stamina in abundance. He as never been beaten going right handed, He is very economical at his fences and the flat track at Kempton is sure to suit, Ruby Walsh thought he wanted a trip even before his first Champion Chase win. I'd love to see him do it as he as become a firm favourite of mine over the years, He's a very classy animal so write him off at your peril. If like many think he doesn't stay then I will hold My hands up but I'd rather take the 6/1 Master Minded than the 5/4 being offered for Long Run, At 5/4 everything needs to be inch perfect theres not much room for error and as impressive as he was last year at Kempton his lacklustre return at Haydock latest doesnt exactly set Me alight as talented as he is...
We do often Oddy via the ferry to Villa Real de Santo Antonio from Ayamonte which takes about 15 mins.They do a snail festival nearby and I loves me snails!!...the ferry will be very popular since the Portuguese Government has introduced an €11 tariff,from the 6th of December,to cross the suspension bridge at the border which effects us since we fly to Faro.Very unpopular with both peoples nestled either side of this bridge and visitors alike. Thinking of hiring a few Greeks to start a riot! Very much like Portugal,great people,sea food and value for money,but have seen so little of it compared to Spain where i have travelled extensively and lived for two years when i was very little...my Grandad was from Sopelana in the Basque country.
Oh yeah. Swordfish is awesome. Wine is dirt cheap and lovely. We went to a few beaches on the atlantic coast and I nearly got washed out to sea - massive waves and you really get sucked out if you're not careful. ****ing shat mayself
I'm sorry Istabraq but you did ask . . . ! Typically the French horses peak far earlier and therefore tend to decline earlier too. Kauto Star is a massive exception to this rule which makes his achievements all the more remarkable. Master Minded looks like the exact opposite. His career best was in the Champion Chase as a 5yo and he hasn't done anything like that since. The difference is that Kauto Star was always a stayer who had the pace to run over 2m. Master Minded was a specialist 2miler and they are only trying stepping him up in trip because he's no longer good enough to win the Champion Chase. I think because Nicholls didn't have anything else for the race (until Kauto reappeared) he felt it was worth chancing Master Minded at the trip because there was nothing to be lost by giving it a go. The collapse in stable confidence seems to suggest that this is the case. Before the Betfair Master Minded appeared a sure thing according to Nicholls and now he is the second string who might as well run because he's been aimed at the race. He might stay he might not but we might as well give him his chance. The change of tune has been quite dramatic, and telling I think. Tom Segal is the most respected tipster in racing and even though you criticise him for opposing Kauto Star the fact is that it was the correct call. Kauto has won 4 times which equals 4 losing bets, and Long Run won last year advised at 7/1 (or similar) leaving a decent profit. He did stay well enough at Aintree but it is about the easiest course to get the trip anywhere. it's tight meaning they can't go that quick (hence why a lot of the times are slower than standard, including Master Minded's race). Also all of his rivals had hard races at Cheltenham whereas he didn't because he walloped the second last and then coasted home thereafter. This meant he was fresher than the others and was able to capitalise as a result. He might well have won anyway but I think this fact contributed to the 'impressive' nature of the victory. Even this victory I'm not totally convinced by. His 178 is based purely on this performance at Aintree in the Melling and I think it is not too hard to crib that form. 1st Master Minded, 9 lengths back to Albertas Run, another 1/2 length to Somersby and 2 and 3/4 back to Tartak. I appreciate the analysis is crude but he is my interpretation of that form. Tartak is rated 156 and let us assume that he ran to form. That would leave Somersby at around 160 which I think is about right. Then Albertas Run would have run to about 162ish. He is rated 168 but I think given his hard race at Cheltenham that is fair. This would leave Master Minded at around 172 which was his mark going into the race, and give the same difference between him and Albertas Run as the official handicapper, though 6lb lower. I think this was his best performance for a little while but I still have it around 172 in my mind. I appreciate that this is crude analysis but given the efforts of the beaten horses since I think the 172 is far more realistic than the 178 he was given. Having Somersby on 170 is surely 10lb too high. If you actually take a long hard look at his form then I don't think he has run to much better than 170 for the last two seasons. I did this to try and work out why people fancied him for the race. I must admit it did nothing more than reaffirm my position against him. I concluded that not only was he very unlikely to stay but that he wasn't good enough even if he did. I was actually appalled that I had been so stupid as to back him in the Champion Chase last year when his recent form had not been near the required level. In hindsight it was apparent that he didn't have a realistic chance on form and yet was still favourite. I can only think that, like many others, I had struggled to get his 2008 performance out of my head. There was always the 'if the real Master Minded turns up' thought. I am no expert on pedigree analysis but this is a tweet from BloodstockAl "Interesting to note that none of Master Minded's four winning siblings have won over as far as 3 miles." He does know his stuff on the breeding. I prefer to judge him on what I have seen and all the evidence suggests that he won't stay. At Ascot last time he was clearly tying up in the final 50yds and in another 50 Somersby would have been past. In the Victor Chandler last season he just held on from a fast finishing Somersby. In the Amlin last season he looked out on his feet at the finish despite winning by 16 lengths. Connections came out and said he was a definite non-stayer when beaten at Aintree in the Melling Chase after his first Champion win. He has because he unseated in the Haldon Gold Cup. However, more importantly this is a case of damn lies and statistics. If you asked anybody to name his best performances I suspect that nobody would be coming up with anything right handed. His first Champion Chase, the 2011 Melling Chase, his first Game Spirit and so on. These are all left handed. The only reason he has met with defeat more times left handed is because the competition has been stronger. In actual fact a lot of his worst performances (in victory) have come right handed; Punchestown when just clinging on from Big Zeb, and Ascot when just clinging on from Somersby. Couldn't really disagree with this. He is the quickest jumper of a fence that I have ever seen when he is in form. It is brilliant to watch. He's never run at Kempton before but I see no reason why the track will not suit. He seems flexible in this regard. This is rubbish given connections' comments after his 2008 defeat in the Melling Chase over an easy 2m4f on good ground. This is what Paul Nicholls said afterwards: "He's run a good race, he just said he didn't stay â simple as that. He made a mistake but he was running on empty before then, and Ruby said, 'We´ll just stick to two miles'. He's absolutely fine and you will see him next in the Tingle Creek. There was always a doubt, though Ruby said when he won at Sandown that he thought he´d get two and a half. At least we know now and we will stick to two miles. There will be no, 'Oh, he might be a King George horse', he is going to stick to two miles, and that's it." Alan King even said "You'd probably say Master Minded is a proper two-miler". I think the King George comment is particularly interesting and again lends credence to my theory that this is a last resort option. The 'we might as well' rather than 'we definitely should'. He is also one of my favourites, believe it or not. He was absolutely exceptional in 2008 but has never reached the same heights again. The 2m division lacks strength in depth and he has been beating up inferior horses and being found out against the best since winning the same race in 2009. His jumping is a joy to behold when he's on his A game and I too would love to see him do it because he would add a fantastic dimension to the staying division. My one quibble here would be that he was a very classy animal. He is still good enough to pick up weak Grade 1s over the right trip but there is no way he is still good enough to win a quality renewal of the King George. I don't think he'll stay, and, even if he does, there is nothing in his form for the past two years that suggests he will be good enough to win it even if he does. I genuinely don't think he has run to much more than 170 for the last two seasons. I think that a 180(ish) performance will be needed. Therefore, to win it, he needs to find 10lb improvement for the step up in trip which I just don't see happening. Much more likely, in my view, is that he is at least 10lbs below his form at the trip which leaves him very vulnerable to horses like Captain Chris and Diamond Harry, and even Somersby, who are likely to relish the 3m.
If Master Minded wins the King George I will be frankly stunned. I think there is no evidence whatsoever that he will stay and no evidence whatsoever that he still retains the necessary ability. I do not expect him to place either and cannot see him much better than 6th because I suspect Somersby and Diamond Harry will be ahead of him over 3m too. If you asked me to put my neck on the line, as if I haven't already, then I'd go so far as to say that I think he'll be pulled up. He's not a horse to keep on going when the going gets tough and I think he could well be pulled up about 3 out. As Tom Segal says, "Master Minded has absolutely zero chance of winning".
Great reply Zen! Very long read!! But that has just confirmed my thoughts of why not to be backing him!! Thanks!!
Wow Zen you must have some time on your hands, Very good reply... Although french types are trained differently in France and tend to peak early in there careers over here, I don't think thats the case for every French horse more of a myth I'd say. I still think there are Group 1's to be won with Master Minded. At 8 years of age I think its highly unlikely age as caught up with Master Minded, Like connections have said he is crying out for a step up in trip as 2 miles seems to be too sharp for him these days. As for Ruby saying Master Minded wanted a trip after his first Champion Chase win, Daryl Jacob as quoted this also if you read the latest Telegraph article on Master Minded... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/ho...ay-the-distance-in-the-King-George-Chase.html Im no pedigree expert Myself but listening to comments from Paul Nicholls about Master Minded and him quoting '' The family is bred to stay '' I had a gander at the lines and the dam sire, Sired Garde Champetre, Royal Auclair etc who are all thorough stayers. Make of that what you like, I guess not many people do... Im all for giving an horse a chance and if I get burnt fingers from backing Master Minded at Kempton I get burnt fingers and I'll hold My hands up. I just can't be backing Long Run at such short odds when I think the likes of Master Minded, Captain Chris and even Kauto could suprise him. Just My opinion... As for Pricewiser, I agree he is a brilliant and very well respected tipster but I prefer to make My own mind up on things rather than reading what the likes of Pricewiser, Templegate have to say. Tom Segal's predictions in this race over the past few years as been woeful...
This build up just gets better and better. In terms of objective analysis and showing no disrespect for others' opinions, this must be the best pre-race build up I've seen on a forum. Fantastic stuff.
I agree he can still win Grade 1s but not one's as strong as this over this trip. His best form was as a 5yo and he has appeared in decline ever since, which is the typical French pattern. They say he wants a trip nowadays but is it not just because he is no longer good enough, regardless of the trip. Plus, Daryll Jacob is unlikely to come out and see he's not going to stay just a few weeks before the race. I think the past comments are more interesting because I just don't see how a horse that they considered an out and out 2miler can suddenly have become a stayer. He's just not good enough anymore, it's not that he needs a trip, he doesn't. I'll be truly amazed if he wants 3m. I agree that Long Run is worth opposing but I'd take Kauto Star and Captain Chris over Master Minded any day of the week. Also, like you, I never 'follow' tipsters, I form my own opinion. But it is always nice to see a tipster of the calibre of Tom Segal agreeing 100% with what you yourself think. I think the Master Minded issue has been dealt with now. We will agree to disagree but he can't win. We'll leave it at that. To change the subject a little. The fact that Master Minded appears to have peaked as a 5yo, the first 5yo ever to win the Champion Chase, and been in decline ever since is it too far fetched to suggest that Long Run, the first 6yo to win the Gold Cup since Mill House in 1963, will follow the same pattern? Perhaps we have seen the best of him already. Discuss. Think that should provoke a bit of debate.
Agree with Istabraq in that Tom Segal's opinions are largely ignored as far as most form punters are concerned in G1 races like this.There is no hidden agenda/mystique/uncovered gem in this race...the form of the contenders is patent...CC the only possible minor exception. I trust my judgement as much as his in this race but i do agree that MM is a highly unlikey winner.He is hype imo and at 8 is too slow for the CC so this KG venture represents an experiment from connections and a leap of faith for punters,one I can't logically make. He will have his supporters,and they have articulated almost valid points re the merit of his bid,but the layers will count them in and count them out and count their winnnings.
