I think that Dawn Approach will win this relatively easy but looking at it from an each way perspective I like the look of George Vancouver. He didnt finish that far behind Dawn Approach (approx 4 lengths) at Newmarket in the Dewhurst on good to soft. George Vancouver beat Dundonnel in the Breeders Cup Junvenile race by approximately 3.5 lengths and Toronoado beat Dundonnel the other week by about 4 lengths..on that form line I dont see George Vancouver too far behind Toronado who seems all the rage and who people say could beat Dawn Approach. I also think George Vancouver may be better on fast going which he will get on Saturday, has had quite a bit of racing experience and has raced before at Newmarket finishing not far behind Dawn Approach. Too me he seems an outstanding each way bet. And he'll do for me . George Vancouver each way on the day.
I think quite clearly they are training Mars for the Derby. Which when you think about his pedigree, makes sense! There are a couple of big odds horses that might run well, those being Van Der Neer, Leitr Mor and Kyllachy Rise. A Bolger 1-2 is not out of question.
please log in to view this image Timeform's View 2000 Guineas Preview: A family affair on the Rowley Mile With the first classic of the season just days away, Keith Melrose examines the familial theme of this year's 2000 Guineas and comes up with a slightly off-centre answer... 'The son of a Major League Baseball player is 800 times more likely than average to play in the majors himself.' The above wouldn't be among the most ground-breaking findings contained in the 2005 book 'Freakonomics', a collaboration between New York Times journalist Stephen J Dubner and maverick economist Steven Levitt, but in the sporting realm it's one of the most telling. It's a clear manifestation of what most sport fans have long known: that the inherited traits, nurturing environment, nepotism and expectations put upon the offspring of sports stars can combine to create a hothouse for sporting excellence. Racing would normally deal chiefly in the first item on that list, but in the case of this year's 2000 Guineas favourite Dawn Approach all four might reasonably apply. The environment and nepotism both arise through Dawn Approach's trainer. Jim Bolger chose to send a good number of his best mares to his 2008 Derby winner New Approach for the Darley-based stallion's first book in 2009, so it doesn't take a great leap of imagination to see the resulting foals being the object of special attention at Coolcullen. It also stands to reason that few are better qualified than a man who handled New Approach so well to take his progeny to the fulfilment of their ability. Then there's the expectation. Dawn Approach, like his sire, became a champion two-year-old, going unbeaten through a campaign topped off with success in the Dewhurst Stakes. He now finds himself in a position similar to New Approach in the spring of 2008: a hot favourite for the 2000 Guineas for whom defeat would be seen as an abject failure. New Approach just failed to win the Guineas, nosed out by Henrythenavigator, but saved his reputation and then some as his three-year-old season wore on. The expectation is that Dawn Approach, a far more forward two-year-old, will peak at an earlier stage; so the Guineas could be the case of now-or-never that it wasn't for his sire, who was quoted at just 12/1 for the Triple Crown before Newmarket. If a win for Dawn Approach would give New Approach redemption by proxy, it's only fitting that Henrythenavigator is represented among the leading competition. Cristoforo Colombo has already had a shot at Dawn Approach, coming third in the Coventry. He shaped a bit better than the bare result that day on what was just his second start, while three subsequent outings never really got the best out of him for one reason or another. It should also be said that being beaten by a rival as a two-year-old is no preclusion to turning the tables at three: indeed, Henrythenavigator was third in New Approach's Futurity Stakes in 2007. Of course, second-guessing the intentions of Aidan O'Brien with his three-year-olds is often an exercise fraught with danger and this year has been no different. Cristoforo Colombo suffered what can be only euphemistically described as a wobble in the betting recently, preference seemingly swinging towards his well-touted stablemate Mars, but his price has consolidated now and it looks more likely than not he'll be allowed to have another shot at Dawn Approach. It would be the romantic outcome if Dawn Approach and Cristoforo Colombo were allowed to fight out the Guineas; but there's a significant fly in the ointment and- horror of horrors- one with a relatively rum bloodline at that. Admittedly, Toronado is by a Derby winner in High Chaparral out of a half-sister to a couple of cracking two-year-olds, but he's far from a chip off the old block. In fact, purely on breeding you'd be far more inclined to take Toronado to Epsom or even Doncaster for his best chance of a classic, but he's looked more than speedy enough for top races at a mile so far, never more so than when making an impressive reappearance in the Craven Stakes. Although the importance of recognised trial races for the Guineas is diminishing in these days of trainers being able to better prepare their horses on the gallops, Toronado's win in a small-field renewal of the Craven could be the key piece of form where this year's race is concerned. Available at odds well into double figures over the winter, Toronado vaulted into second-favouritism as he brushed aside smart rivals in the Craven, the bare form somewhat muddling but sectional times suggesting he'd put up a performance of potentially Guineas-winning standard. Stripping it back, this year's 2000 Guineas has two among the remaining field of 14 whose form stands out above the rest: Dawn Approach represents the best juvenile form, while Toronado comes in as a potential usurper from the trials. A colt with more scope than early-bloomer Dawn Approach, Toronado probably has the greater room to improve further. Much has been made of Dawn Approach attempting to atone for his sire's defeat five years ago, but it could well be another father-and-son combination, that of Richard Hannon senior and junior, that comes to steal the headlines on Saturday. Recommendation: Back Toronado @ [3.85] for the 2000 Guineas please log in to view this image
Cristoforo Colombo doesn't have much to make up on bare form, assumimg he has progressed well and improved i think this will be closer than alot of you think.
I can see the point behind Cristoforo and RV has a really top value bet when he took the 25s last year. However, I think the further they go the more Dawn Approach will beat him, and I see Dawn Approach being a touch too strong in the last furlong for CC. It is hard to say how they have trained on until they race so will be interesting to see.
Top Class.. would you rate Toronado as a danger at all? However strong or poor that form of his reappearance will work out in behind, he was visually Impressive and i know will be better up in trip but he will have an edge having had a run and is sure to be thereabouts.
Im surprised no one is talking about George Vancouver... greatly improved to win at Santa Anita on his final run of last season on firm ground... is likely to get good to firm tomorrow and I reckon he is gonna lap it up... When I watched back his run at Newmarket behind Dawn Approach (good to soft) i reckon he would have been a lot closer had he had the firmer ground.. Im expecting a massive run from this horse tomorrow I really am. I still think Dawn Approach will win it but I really cant resist an each way bet on this fella...My advice is dont ignore this horse even though Joseph O'Brien has plumed for Cristoforo Columbo - there s hardly anything in it for me. !!
In a nutshell, yes. However, I have identified him as a Derby horse from a long time ago and I never took a price for the Guineas. 5/2 for me is now too short because I take Bolger very seriously in how highly he rates Dawn Approach. Toronado hasnt got the form in the book against this field but he is potentially a superior horse to Olympic Glory, who was very close to Dawn Approach in the Coventry, so I think they will be very closely matched. They can finish 1-2 in my opinion. In what order? Who knows. He looked very strong at the end of his craven and he did it all so easily and naturally, which is why he is potentially an exciting horse for the Derby.
Having said that Richard Hughes just said toronado is the best horse he's ridden in a long time. What's he ridden that's been brilliant though? Canford Cliffs? Paco Boy?
This gamble on Tornado is laughable, that hound is going to get his doors blown off tomorrow by Dawn Approach! I can't believe the prices I'm seeing about DA, and like a few of you, il be up bright and early tomorrow as I'm sure some daft bookmaker will be stupid enough to offer 2/1 or even more. Dawn Approach should be at most 4/6, he is a beast, and he's going to win the Guineas easily. Richard Hughes can hype up Tornado all he likes, but DA has the best form, not to mention the best pedigree aswell. How many good horses has High Chaparel produced ffs? It is time to bet like men tommorow, get your house on DA
Hmm, i keep coming back to Dawn Approach myself, is he really a good thing tho? Time will tell i suppose. I'vê been Looking for a reason not to back him but can't really! In Bolger i shall trust.
As I said Tornado is a hound, Dawn Approach is a beast. The best Donkey Richard Hughes has ridden LOL LOL LOL!!!!! To think some muppets actually backed that horse at 2/1. Even the original 7/2 after the Ceaven was a laughable price!! Says alot about that other over rated hound from the Hannon yard Canford Cliffs, if Tornado is the best, and to think they made excuses when Frankel blew his doors off. The Hannon Yard have stitched all there loyal fans up again
Was I the only one not hailing Dawn Approach as the reincarnation of Pegasus after the old 2,000 Guineas?!? Did it in an authorative fashion but if we face the facts the race was only ever really a 2 beast affair and when one of them failed to perform (I think the excuses offered re Toronado’s poor performance were genuine as he even failed to beat his stablemate who was deemed beforehand to be markedly his inferior) Dawn Approach was always going to win. Furthermore, he only beat a 95 rated rival into the old runners-up berth. And a 95 rated rival who in his 2 previous heats was beaten further than the 5 lengths by which Dawn Approach beat him! Anyone taking offers of 6/4 re Dawn Approach for the Derby wants certifying in my view and if he gets anywhere near Sir Michael’s Telescope then I’ll eat my hat! Old boy Ryan will give that one a slap on the rump and it’ll be goodnight nurse. Finally on the Guineas I’ve always be critical of old girl Clare ‘Balders’ Balding but full marks to her when interviewing Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum afterwards. She used the old sucker punch technique which was absolutely brilliant, I say, brilliant! ‘Balders’ buttered him up by calling him ‘Sir’ and asking a grovelling question before then going for the throat! Then when she had him on the floor she kicked him again...brilliant. And just like any bullying dictator what did Al Maktoum do?!? Yes, of course, he ran away. Excellent, ‘Balders’, excellent and I don’t think Al Maktoum will be ordering her to join his roster of wifes anytime soon!
