The 2000 Guineas market this year looks very lop-sided.
Based purely on two-year-old form, the impressive favourite Air Force Blue will probably show up and blow away a small field. For the ante post punter, the prospect of getting paid on the second or third in a six or seven runner race may have some appeal if the odds are 16/1 or more (i.e. better than the win odds on Aidan O’Brien’s charge but with a free win chance).
As I do not expect the favourite to see the course before the day of the race, I think that the prize money may tempt more than a few to give it a punt; with the Craven and Greenham winners leading the opposition – if you can figure out who they will be.
Emotionless is generally second favourite with the bookies but I have to say that the Arazi-effect makes him a poor bet in my eyes. Remember the wonder two-year-old having knee-chip surgery and only returning as a Group 3 performer? The poor showing on his last two-year-old start makes him too imponderable for an investment. If he wins one of the trials impressively, then the odds will disappear but I am prepared to wait and see.
Massaat was an easy winner of a Leicester maiden before following home the Dewhurst winner and looks like a contender with natural progression; however, that is factored into the odds. Out with the washing were Jim Bolger’s Sanus Per Aquam and John Gosden’s Tashweeq.
I would not touch Middle Park winner Shalaa as his two-year-old form clearly indicates that he is a sprinter. I cannot see him even showing up, whilst the runner-up, Mark Johnston’s Buratino (only horse to beat Air Force Blue), was heavily raced as a two-year-old and has not raced beyond 6 furlongs.
I have always considered the Racing Post Trophy as more of a Derby trial for two year olds and I have to question 33/1 winner Marcel, previously a Newcastle maiden winner, as Peter Chapple-Hyam’s charge may be a flash in the pan. The third that day was John Gosden’s previously unbeaten Foundation, four lengths in arrears as favourite.
Racing Post runner-up Johannes Vermeer was not Aidan O’Brien’s first string but had been fourth in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère, won by the Godolphin-owned Andre Fabre colt Ultra, where John Gosden’s Cymric (also Godolphin) was runner-up. Unplaced in the Paris bunch finish was Jim Bolger’s Herald The Dawn (Godolphin’s first string), previously second to Air Force Blue in the five-runner National Stakes.
Cymric ventured to Keeneland for the Breeders’ Cup, where he was unplaced behind Aidan O’Brien’s Hit It A Bomb – but will the winner be heading for the Kentucky Derby rather than Newmarket?
Prominent in the betting are several horses that were lightly raced as two year olds. Saeed bin Suroor’s Jufn won a median auction race on his only start on Chelmsford’s artificial surface whilst John Gosden’s Royal Artillery won his only start on turf at Doncaster.
Well-regarded second start winners include Mootaharer (Newmarket maiden), Brave Hero (Newmarket maiden), Predilection (Kempton median auction maiden, artificial surface) and Sir Michael Stoute’s Estidraak (Kempton maiden, artificial surface).
The complete imponderable in the ante post market is Michael O’Callaghan’s easy Leopardstown Group 3 winner Blue De Vega. He does not have any real form lines with the big guns but if you want to take a punt, good luck.
From an ante post point of view, perhaps the best bet is to assume that the favourite will not show up (or train on) making 16/1 bar one a license to print money if you can pick three or four win bets and one collects.
If Air Force Blue was a three year old in a two year old’s body (i.e. others will catch up over winter), I would have chanced Andre Fabre bringing unbeaten Ultra to Headquarters (20/1) but it is reported that he is being targeted at Epsom not the Guineas.
At this stage, I am sitting it out on both the Newmarket Classic ante post markets as form suggests Aidan O’Brien could win both with the short-priced favourites, although I think 1000 Guineas market leader Minding does not want fast ground.
