10 games in

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Dazz19

Dazz19

Active Member
Apr 11, 2011
1,020
2
38
Fakenham
So, we're a quarter of the way through the season already and sitting quite comfortably in eighth place. Quite a few people outside of the club are surprised at how well we're doing, but are we really over-achieving as much as the Shearer's, Hansen's and Lawrenson's would have you believe? I don't think we are.

I've gone through our results and listed the points we did pick up and compared it to what we hoping for.

Wigan (a) 1-1 - most of us would've been happy with that for our first game back.
Actual points 1, ecpected 1

Stoke (h) 1-1 - I know a draw in the end wasn't fair on us, but at the start of the game most would've seen 1-1 as a good result
Actual points 2, ecpected 2

Chelsea (a) 1-3 - No-one expected anything from this although we were unlucky not t get anything in the end
Actual points 2, expected 2

West Brom (h) 0-1 - This is the first game we have really dropped points IMO. West Brom were poor and we should've taken the win
Actual points 2, expected 5

Bolton (a) 2-1 - This was a tricky one, and at the time a draw would've been seen as a good result.
Actual points 5, expected 6

Sunderland (h) 2-1 - Like the West Brom game, a match we should be winning, and we did, in style
Actual points 8, expected 9

Man Utd (a) 0-2 - Like the Chelsea game, one we weren't expected to get anything from and one we were unlucky not to get a point from
Actual points 8, expected 9

Swansea (h) 3-1 - a huge, must win game and that's just what we did
Actual points 11, expected 12

Liverpool (a) 1-1 - Away to one of the big four/five. Nothing was expected from us, we didn't get near how we played against United and Chelsea but got an unexpected point
Actual points 12, expected 12

Blackburn (h) 3-3 - a tricky one given we were expected to win, in the end we snuck out with a point
Actual points 13, expected 15

Now, this is only my opinion on how many points we should have picked up at this point in the season, but I don't think 15 was an unrealistic target for us, so to have 13 is pretty good going.
 
Thought The Baggies would get a point,we would get nothing at Anfield and a point at Bolton so I reckoned on 12. I think the fixtures were kind to us and we got some winnable games early on,unlike 2004.
 
That's an interesting way of looking at the season so far, Dazz. I'm not sure if I would've been so optimistic. I probably would've had us with 10 or 11. With trips to Stamford Bridge, Old Trafford and Anfield so early it looked bleak. Glad to see I waswrong though!
 
Initially I thought predicting 15 points from the first 10 games was optimistic as well, turns out it was a little bit. I'm going to put my optimism to the test now though and look at our next ten games.

Aston Villa (a) This will all depend on which Villa turn up, I'm going to say they'll edge it. 1-2
expected points 13

Arsenal (h) The way they're playing at the moment Arsenal should breeze through it but that all depends on whether Van Persie stays fit. 1-3
expected points 13

QPR (h) Another must win game and I think we will win it and pick up our first clean sheet as well. 2-0
expected points 16

Man City (a) We haven't had a hiding yet. This will be it. The one team I'm not looking forward to this season. 0-5
expected points 16

Newcastle (h) A decent game to have after Man City. Playing well at the moment but hopefully will have faded a bit by this time. 2-2
expected points 17

Everton (a) A potential banana skin, but we should deal with this the same way we did at Bolton. 0-2
expected points 20

Wolves (a) As long as we get into them early and get an early goal, we should get something out of this. 1-3
expected points 23

Spurs (h) Another we'll be expected to get nothing from, but being at home may help, especially if 'Arry rests players for Europe. 1-1 (very optimistic)
expected points 24

Fulham (h) A chance for revenge and to capitalize on what I think will be a tired Fulham. 3-0
expected points 27

QPR (a) A repeat of last year would be brilliant as this won't be an easy fixture. 1-1.
expected points 28

Again I'm being very optimistic, especially with the Spurs game, but I don't see why we can't get these results. We only have three big teams (Man City, Arsenal, Spurs) and two are at home, as well as QPR twice and Wolves, Everton and Fulham who are all struggling at the moment. This would take us into the new year on 28 points and needing just 12 from 18 games to reach the magic 40 point mark.
 
Dazz19 said:
Initially I thought predicting 15 points from the first 10 games was optimistic as well, turns out it was a little bit. I'm going to put my optimism to the test now though and look at our next ten games.

Aston Villa (a) This will all depend on which Villa turn up, I'm going to say they'll edge it. 1-2
expected points 13

Arsenal (h) The way they're playing at the moment Arsenal should breeze through it but that all depends on whether Van Persie stays fit. 1-3
expected points 13

QPR (h) Another must win game and I think we will win it and pick up our first clean sheet as well. 2-0
expected points 16

Man City (a) We haven't had a hiding yet. This will be it. The one team I'm not looking forward to this season. 0-5
expected points 16

Newcastle (h) A decent game to have after Man City. Playing well at the moment but hopefully will have faded a bit by this time. 2-2
expected points 17

Everton (a) A potential banana skin, but we should deal with this the same way we did at Bolton. 0-2
expected points 20

Wolves (a) As long as we get into them early and get an early goal, we should get something out of this. 1-3
expected points 23

Spurs (h) Another we'll be expected to get nothing from, but being at home may help, especially if 'Arry rests players for Europe. 1-1 (very optimistic)
expected points 24

Fulham (h) A chance for revenge and to capitalize on what I think will be a tired Fulham. 3-0
expected points 27

QPR (a) A repeat of last year would be brilliant as this won't be an easy fixture. 1-1.
expected points 28

Again I'm being very optimistic, especially with the Spurs game, but I don't see why we can't get these results. We only have three big teams (Man City, Arsenal, Spurs) and two are at home, as well as QPR twice and Wolves, Everton and Fulham who are all struggling at the moment. This would take us into the new year on 28 points and needing just 12 from 18 games to reach the magic 40 point mark.
Click to expand...

Personally I think you're being very optimistic. I'd go for (Norwich score first):

Aston Villa (a) 1-2
expected points 13

Arsenal (h) 1-3
expected points 13

QPR (h) 3-1
expected points 16

Man City (a) 1-4
expected points 16

Newcastle (h) 0-0
expected points 17

Everton (a) 0-1
expected points 17

Wolves (a) 2-1
expected points 20

Spurs (h) 1-2
expected points 20

Fulham (h) 1-0
expected points 23

QPR (a) 0-0
expected points 24

Okay, so with my predictions we only manage 4 points less but I expect a slump at some stage and we're pretty much predicting on current form. Hope we're (specifically, you're) right though. :)
 
Love the optimism Dazz, but I prefer the pleasure of having my expectations exceeded! I think we'll do well to match the points haul from the first 10, never mind better it. After 20 games I'm expecting 24 points, and a lot of nail-biting thereafter. But, as Mona Lott used to say in ITMA, "It's being so cheerful as keeps me going".
 
I think we could take something from Villa next time out. Big 'ek really hasn't got them playing that well and they seem to be specialising in draws.
 
If we have 23 points after the fulham game, the half way point in the season as per hucks numbers above, we all should be absolutely delighted
Even 20 points is half way to the magic 40 and a bit of a slump from our current 13 PTs

Otbc ilwt
 
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