Friday's Meetings Lingfield A/W 7 Races 1:15-5:05p.m. Cheltenham Festival N/H 7 Races 1:30-5:30p.m. Fakenham N/H 6 Races 1:55-5:10p.m. Dundalk(E) A/W 7 Races 6:00-9:00p.m. Wolverhampton(E) A/W 6 Races 6:10-8:40p.m. Racecards At The Races Racing Post Sporting Life Good Luck
TTF engaged today (click name for full entry details) ZUBAYR (IRE) ADRIEN DU PONT (FR) MODUS ARBRE DE VIE (FR) CHARBEL (IRE) WAIT FOR ME (FR) BARTERS HILL (IRE) YORKHILL (IRE) SHANTOU VILLAGE (IRE) BELLSHILL (IRE) BACHASSON (FR) RED HAMMER DON POLI (IRE) IRISH CAVALIER (IRE) DON COSSACK (GER) DJAKADAM (FR) HARRISTOWN
Right, i've enjoyed Cheltenham this year and made my money so today is playing it up stakes, which will almost certainly mean i'll start drinking at 13.25, enjoy the Triumph as Zubayr steams in and then lose all that profit back as i get more inebriated. 1.30 Zubayr 5/1 each way (day 4 banker) 2.10 i'd happily have half the field in this although i won't lie because Chelsea's confidence has encouraged me to have a sheckle on Superb Story. All Yours and Modus tickle my fancy as well. Combo tricast for a laugh. 2.50 I hate Barters Hill's jumping and i love Long Dog so i've had a bit on Long Dog but the bigger Barters Hill gets the more attractive he is as a betting proposition. 4/1 is getting on the verge of being a daft price for a horse that's smashed everything despite being a crap jumper. 3.30 There's 5 horses with excellent credentials. I hate Don Poli's price. If you back this horse at this price you are a dick. I don't care if he wins. You can't back Don Poli at 4/1 based on anything other than hope he's better than he's shown. He might be better than he's shown but he needs to be 20lbs better to win this. No chance is he a 4/1 shot. It makes me sad people are backing him at this price. Don Cossack could easily win but i don't like his Cheltenham form. There's always a reason he's lost. Always an excuse. No. Again, the price is wrong. 5/2 isn't criminal but it's definitely bending the law. I put Djakadam up ages ago at a frankly incredible 16/1 but stupidly didn't back him. I'll still be claiming the victory if he wins. He's now 3/1. At 16/1 he's the greatest each way bet of all time. At 3/1 he's too short. Apparently he smashed Vautour on the gallops. If he did then you are looking at the winner. Again, it's not a class issue. I think he's more than good enough to win. I just think e's too short at 3/1. Smad Place - mmmmmm. That's how i feel about him. 9/1 Is fair. He will give everything a lovely tow and he'll place. Boring. Cue Card - 4/1. This is the bet. I think he definitely stays. He's been miles better than everything else this year bar Vautour who he beat anyway irrespective of the latters tactics that day. What's not to like about this horse on Friday? He might not win but he's undoubtedly the best price of the field. 4.10 On The Fringe 3/1 - that'll do pig. Nina messed up on Josies the other day. She won't this time. I hammered Paint The Clouds last time and he was beaten fair and square. No reason why they'd reverse the placings. 4.40 Whiteout - i don't thinks've ever watched this jockey which is a blow. Look at my preview evening chat for reasons but based on one piece of form from late last year she's thrown in off 135. 5.10 Rock The World - Jessies have run like a ****ing drain but i said this is my bet so i'm sticking with it. I'll almost certainly stake far too much on this useless bastard but that's Cheltenham and that's why i love it.
My bets are placed, if I get some early winners I may put some on cue card as I have a feeling he'll come through to win. I'll be at the beer festival keeping up to date via here.
Geraghty gets off the mark with Great Field in the County Hurdle - Graded Class horse. Don Poli in the Gold Cup with a sentimental saver on Cue Card and the reverse forecast.
I've had a poor festival punting wise apart from a couple of nice e/w shouts on the day, but that's how the game goes. Fridays finale looks something like this: 1:30 Apple’s Jade Loved her debut over Christmas and she can improve a bundle for that. She's the one unexposed Irish one and the handy mares allowance to boot. 2.10 Wait For Me For him to have a mark under 140 gives him a right chance. His jumping could and needs to improve, but his form with Buveur D'air was done no harm with him grabbing 3rd in the Supreme. 2:50 Shantou Village Gets his ground. Has to prove he stays 3m but I think he is one of the bets of the meeting. Was brilliant here earlier in the season, ran a cracker behind Yanworth when outpaced on slower ground, and I think can see off Barters Hill in this. 4.10 It Came To Pass The forums second favourite trainer, Jim Culloty, should have him ripe for this. Will not lack stamina but does have a tough adversary in On The Fringe. 4.40 West End Star On the upgrade in Ireland, decent 2nd in a Grade 2 LTO but gets into this off a mark of 138. I think Luke Dempsey is a smashing jockey and they can go close. 5:30 The Saint James I genuinely think if he stands up he wins. Showed his engine when a surprise place in the County Hurdle and would have won LTO without the jumping error. The McManus plot on Ned Buntline has fallen short the last couple of years but this one looks tailor made for this sort of race. The Gold Cup market is horrible. I will cheer on Cue Card but I do think the conditions and the likely tow into the race from Smad Place should set things up ideally for Don Cossack. He is unlikely to be under so much pressure as when Vautour stretched him out in the King George but I will sit back and enjoy the race. Final day- enjoy it lads and lasses.
Pauling said: "He pulled out stiff on Wednesday morning and wasn't quite himself, but I had him checked out by the vet this morning and he's sound as a pound and couldn't have looked better. "I couldn't be happier with him, he's fit and well and it's all systems go." Could be the reason for the drift, although says he's fine.
Iv had a shocker this week boys. Blinkers on avoiding the obvious favourites trying to find some value. But i fancy some tomorrow. Zubayr - Green on debut, and still the most impressive 4 year old performance this season. Modus - Nicholls up to no good, horse has festival form will like the conditions and has a low weight which tends to be crucial for this race. Shantou Village - Ground in his favour he looks a potential star. West Approach ew, half brother to Thistlecrack is no 100/1 shot. Don Cossack - I dont buy the course thing, he just needs to be ridden better. He showed how good he was last spring when the ground rode better. It Came To Pass - The Leopardstown race normally throws up the winner of this and half brother to Lord Windermere he will love this. Whiteout - Read Bob's thoughts on it and he won me over, i was originally swaying towards Qualando. The Saint James - Winner without a penalty, cruising last race despite mistakes. The 2nd ran a nice race in the novice chase on day 1. Next Sensation is weighted to go close again.
1.30 Cheltenham Footpad 9/1 The Triumph is not a race that I'm too fond of and Footpad is a token selection for the all conquering Willie Mullins' yard. Despite being unfancied in comparison to his stablemates on his last start, he defied market weakness to beat two fellow Mullins inmates comprehensively in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown and I thought there was no fluke about that performance given they went a good clip. It also is quite noteworthy to me that Mullins thought his representative in the Fred Winter Voix Du Reve wouldn't have a chance off a mark of 139 (would have gone very close had he not fallen at the last) and I think that bodes well for the yard's juveniles in this race. With Ruby Walsh on top, I've had a small each way at 10/1 but it's not a contest I'll ever be confident in. 2.10 Cheltenham Blue Hell 10/1 For a number of months, I have been very confident about Blue Hell for the County Hurdle and despite the British handicapper giving him an extra 5lb and despite being 22lb above his last win I think he's still quite a bit ahead of the handicapper. Having never quite put it all together for previous trainer Tony Mullins, new trainer Alan Fleming seems to have found the key to this 6 year old as he was imperious on his stable debut when comfortably winning a race that has worked out ridiculously well. The runner up Diamond King has won both races since including the Coral Cup on Wednesday off a 17lb higher mark, the 4th home Keppols Queen won a Grade 3 and was unlucky not to finish closer than 6th behind Vroum Vroum Mag on Tuesday, the 5th home Henry Higgins (reopposes here on 6lb better terms) absolutely slaughtered an incredibly competitive Leopardstown after that whilst the 6th won next time too. On the face of it, racing her off 22lb higher mark looks huge but I do feel that this 6 year old is a little bit better than a handicapper and he's been primed for this since. I think good ground will bring out further improvement and I'm quietly confident Blue Hell can win this valuable contest. 2.50 Cheltenham Barters Hill 9/2 Coming into Cheltenham, I thought defeat was out of the question for this unbeaten 6 year old and although it's slightly disconcerting that he was apparently a bit soar after working on Wednesday I'm confident he'll be 100% fit and, if he is, I'm struggling to see him getting beaten. Repelling all comers in his 7 starts to date, this gritty and incredibly talented front runner just cannot be passed thus far and I personally don't think we have reached the bottom with him yet. Top Class in Bumpers and the same over hurdles, this Grade 1 winning Novice has beaten a number of good horses along the way and I have no doubt about his class. With the ground holding no concerns, it is a slight concern that Ben Pauling's charge will be taken on in a big way up front but I still think he's going to prove too strong and resolute for his rivals and 9/2 is a much bigger price than I was expecting. 3.30 Cheltenham Djakadam 3/1 Although coming here off a fall in jumping's showpiece event is not ideal, I rate last years Gold Cup winner Coneygree incredibly highly and I fancy last years runner up Djakadam to go one better and land the Festival's main attraction and given the dominant Willie Mullins his first success in the race. In what looks a terrific and wide open event, my initial fancy Vautour's defection and subsequent demolition of the RSA must say a lot about how Djakadam is working at home and his runner up spot in this last year is certainly the strongest form on paper to my eyes. I see the next three in the market as legitimate dangers (I believe 4/1 will be briefly available on Djakadam tomorrow) to the selection but I'm confident that, if Djakadam replicates his performance in this last year, he will come home in front and give the best trainer around his first win in the contest. 4.10 Cheltenham Paint The Clouds 13/2 Warren Greatrex's 11 year old Paint The Clouds was my strongest bet of the festival last year until the rain came and scuppered his chances and I was genuinely shocked he was able to finish 3rd in this contest on soft underfoot conditions he absolutely hates. Finally, he gets his quick ground conditions which he oh so badly needs and I can see him coming out on top of this with doubts about the market leader this year. Last years winner On The Fringe was sensational last year as he took the Hunter Chase showpieces at the three major festivals last year but that is a seriously intensive schedule and I certainly have doubts if he has sufficiently recovered this year. He was very disappointing on his reappearance when a well beaten 7th (2nd in the corresponding race last season) and, although he'll be very tough to beat if back to his best, Paint The Clouds is one of the most ground dependent horses in training and I'm confident he can put up a bold show under top amateur rider Sam Waley-Cohen 4.50 Cheltenham Children's List 12/1 Trainer Willie Mullins has taken this contest for the last 2 years and I think his 6 year old Children's List represents the best chance of his three ponged assault. Appreciably better on good ground, Children's List has been progressing well on ground that doesn't suit him having run a good 4th in a strong race and a fine 2nd last time out and I think that he has a lot more to offer returned to a sound surface. The excellent David Mullins gets on board and I think, with good ground key to this horse, we could see even more improvement which should hopefully see him land this for the yard for the 3rd successive year. 5.30 Cheltenham Next Sensation 10/1 & Velvet Maker 12/1 Despite slight concern about him having needed another breathing operation, Next Sensation looks to have been plotted up for this race all season and off just a 1lb higher mark I can see him taking a lot of beating as he looks to land this contest for the 2nd time in a row. A blazing front runner, Next Sensation was actually 4th in this contest 2 years ago when he probably went off a little too quick under Richard Johnson as he was nabbed close home and having shown very little (similar to this year) last season he came alive with a thrilling victory last year under a great Tom Scudamore ride. His poor form this season isn't of concern given what he did last year and I think the stable have done a great drop getting him dropped 7lb in 4 runs this year. Clearly prepared for this race, if Tom Scu can get his fractions right in front I think he'll prove very hard to catch. Alan Fleming's Velvet Maker is another horse who is very interesting in my eyes and a mark of 146 may underestimate him. A decent hurdler for Tony Martin, Velvet Maker made his stable and chasing debut at Naas back in November when a very impressive winner when he beat Dysios (rated 131) very easily. It now gets very hard to weigh up his two latest runs as he ran behind the sensational Douvan on both occasions and it seems that he was just out to get some good experience in the face of an impossible task. It is guess work as to see how good he really is but I do think that he'll handle the conditions well and I believe he is the sort of horse who will relish a race run at a frantic pace which is guaranteed here. He could be well in or might be harshly judged but he is very unexposed and worth an each way play at 12/1 in my eyes.
Zubayr 5/1 Triumph Hurdle - super impressive debut for this Nicholls inmate and given the fact he reportedly was 3 weeks off being fit adds greater magnitude to what he did. Travelled well out the back before showing plenty of speed and stamina to coast home for a 3.75 length win to an enterprising ridden Skelton horse called Azzuri. Should make a bold bid. Up For Review 16/1 Albert Bartlett - had been very progressive his first two starts over hurdles, routing useful fields before failing miserably at Doncaster when facing Barters Hill. That run was too bad to be true, it definitely wasn't his running and it also coincided with a period of Mullins "hotpots" losing out so I am assuming something was briefly amiss. If he's back in rude health I expect to turn form with Barters Hill and potentially cause a mini upset here. Travels beautifully and has an engine, too big at 16's. I will be on Djakadam in the Gold Cup. Have a good one folks.
McManus getting In early on Squouateur...into 4/1 for the Martin Pipe. Dexter alluded to it today, Mall Dini did the form no harm. Very short price for it now though. His Great Field also has a massive chance in the county too. Just a heads up. Watching brief races for me only.
Nicholls to have a massive day I think, throw in Barters Hill and Cue Card and it might just be a day for the UK elite
