The not606 Daily Racing Thread Monday 28th. July 2014.

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StickWise
Yesterday's Selection Peterkin 3rd @ 12/1 [1/4 The Odds a Place 1,2,3]
Overall Record Win only +1.50 : Each/Way +4.92 Points To a 1 Point Level Stake
Latest Racing News @ http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd
StickWise Weather Warning...........Massive thunderstorm in the night in the Windsor area, big downpour and will have played havoc with the ground both at the track and here at my Castle gardens <laugh>, expect non runners aplenty and some turn-ups!
Galway Festival Day1...................The indisputable King Of Ballybrit a certain D K Weld chases 28th Top Trainer award http://www.rte.ie/sport/racing/irish/2014/0727/633415-galway-festival-set-to-begin/
Targhooda Plunge .......................3/1 from 12's for Arc @ http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd
Mondays Cards @ http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/home.sd?r_date=2014-07-28
Ayr Flat 8 Races 2:00-5:30p.m.
Lingfield All-Weather 8 Races 2:15-5:50p.m.
Galway Festival (IRE)(E) 7 Race Mixed Card Jumps 2 Races 5:10 & 5:40p.m. Flat 5 Races 6:10-8:15p.m.
Uttoxeter(E) National Hunt 7 Races 5:50-8:35p.m.
Windsor(E) Flat 6 Races 6:00-8:35p.m.
Todays StickWise
Quick Jack @ 9/2 6:45p.m. Galway @ http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-07-28-galway/18:45/winner
I really fancy QUICK JACK to win the Galway Hurdle this week so I am a little miffed to see him running on day one of the meeting. My initial thought is that they know how well handicapped he is and will be going to the well twice this week.
I am confident that he is going to win tomorrow and current best odds are 9-2 but at the same time and think the 10-1 for him to follow up in the Hurdle should be taken too as when he bolts up tomorrow that price will be slashed. He is a hurdler on a real upward curve and looks one to follow.
P.S. While you are at it you might even want to take 20-1 on him for the Ebor!
Result Jack Bolts Up @ S.P 4/1 <applause>
StickWise Ante-Post
Quick Jack @ 10/1 Galway Hurdle 4:55p.m. Thursday @ http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/galway-hurdle/winner
Quick Jack @ 20/1 Ebor Handicap York 23rd Aug 2014 @ http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/flat/ebor/winner
Latest Info
Industry Odds :bandit: @ http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting
B.H.A. Going Reports :steam: Racecourse Weather :emoticon-0100-smile Non-Runners ? Timeform Live Updates :emoticon-0148-yes::emoticon-0148-yes: & Rule4 Deductions <laugh> @ http://www.flatstats.co.uk/non-runners.php

Results @ http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/results/home.sd

Timeform Podcasts & Live Radio @ http://radio.betfair.com/

Galway Races Live :cool:@ http://www.rte.ie/player/ie/live/10/
I don't know if this will work from over the pond? <steam> <laugh>

Good Luck <ok>
 
Sleep walk 7.05 looks value at 6/5. Doubling with Hostile Fire in the 7.35 For a 7/1 double
 
Windsor
7.05 Sleepwalk 6-5
I notice SMP has already spotted this one but I just wanted to second it as I think the handicapper has made a rare but monumental error with regard this horse's opening mark. I understand she beat very little which makes it very hard to put her up too high, but she won at 1-9 unraced, won by 4 lengths which could have been 14 if inclined which means the assessor could have at least been forgiven for starting her off at 77. This horse however has been allotted 65 which means she gets weight from everything and yet you would fancy her to beat everything from levels. This could be as much of a gift as you can get.

I will be amazed if this filly does not end up 85 at least.

One way or another the handicapper has made a mistake for one horse, as the horse that finished 3rd beaten 20 lengths by sleepwalk had one further run finishing 4th in another maiden at Lingfield and was then allotted a mark of 64. The handicapper has Sleepwalk and the 3rd placed 20 lengths back Border Guard within 1 lb of each other, this 20 lengths was also without effort. This mark of 65 has to be wrong.
 
Bluesky9 said:
Windsor
7.05 Sleepwalk 6-5
I notice SMP has already spotted this one but I just wanted to second it as I think the handicapper has made a rare but monumental error with regard this horse's opening mark. I understand she beat very little which makes it very hard to put her up too high, but she won at 1-9 unraced, won by 4 lengths which could have been 14 if inclined which means the assessor could have at least been forgiven for starting her off at 77. This horse however has been allotted 65 which means she gets weight from everything and yet you would fancy her to beat everything from levels. This could be as much of a gift as you can get.

I will be amazed if this filly does not end up 85 at least.
Click to expand...


Awful price tomorrow against some experienced handicappers. She may win, and may well be very well handicapped, but she is going from a rank maiden to a tough little handicap. If she was in someone elses colours she would be much longer in the market. Throw in that four of the field have good course winning form, and it makes it a very tough little heat.

Good luck and I hope she wins for you.
 
Are we all backing Dermot Weld's runners blind at Galway this week? Has proved a profitable strategy over the years ..................... he's been leading trainer at the festival an incredible 27 TIMES <yikes>
 
Windsor 18.35. Although several unknowns in this, Typhoon Season looks as good as anything to win this. 5th over 7f at Newmarket on début, only losing 2nd place inside final furlong. The 3rd strolled to an 8l victory next time out. Typhoon Season drops to 6f on an easier track and has R Hughes on board this time. Bred for speed by Kyllachy (sire of Sole Power), and on good going tomorrow (soft at Newmarket), it's difficult to find reasons why he shouldn't storm home. No prices yet but if he's odds against he will look good value.
 
PS. Just noticed the Frank Spencer has a mount in the race. I have a mental note never to back a horse he is riding and never back against a horse he's riding. Bugger.
 
OddDog said:
Are we all backing Dermot Weld's runners blind at Galway this week? Has proved a profitable strategy over the years ..................... he's been leading trainer at the festival an incredible 27 TIMES <yikes>
Click to expand...

There have been worse systems tried on here Oddy.

I like the way each horse is specifically targeted to a given race way in advance.

If you examine his long term entries he only ever has one or two entered for each race...prepared to perfection.

Best trainer in the world imo,closely followed by the excellent John Gosden and Linda Perratt.
 
OddDog said:
Are we all backing Dermot Weld's runners blind at Galway this week? Has proved a profitable strategy over the years ..................... he's been leading trainer at the festival an incredible 27 TIMES <yikes>
Click to expand...

The one year that everyone is saying that and his horses will be heavily backed and this will be the year he has no winners <laugh>
 
I really fancy QUICK JACK to win the Galway Hurdle this week so I am a little miffed to see him running on day one of the meeting. My initial thought is that they know how well handicapped he is and will be going to the well twice this week. I am confident that he is going to win tomorrow and current best odds are 9-2 but at the same time and think the 10-1 for him to follow up in the Hurdle should be taken too as when he bolts up tomorrow that price will be slashed. He is a hurdler on a real upward curve and looks one to follow.
QUICK JACK 9-2 6:45 Galway
ante post
QUICK JACK 10-1 Galway Hurdle Thursday
While you are at it you might even want to take 20-1 on him for the Ebor............
Another hurdler on an upward curve is CYGNET 9-2 Uttoxeter 7:55 although his more of a renaissance. He is ten pounds well in at the moment and I am confident that he will win tomorrow evening!
 
Ron said:
Windsor 18.35. Although several unknowns in this, Typhoon Season looks as good as anything to win this. 5th over 7f at Newmarket on début, only losing 2nd place inside final furlong. The 3rd strolled to an 8l victory next time out. Typhoon Season drops to 6f on an easier track and has R Hughes on board this time. Bred for speed by Kyllachy (sire of Sole Power), and on good going tomorrow (soft at Newmarket), it's difficult to find reasons why he shouldn't storm home. No prices yet but if he's odds against he will look good value.
Click to expand...

"Levels You Devils" available on Betfair for a Ton+ [Lees 5% Beeswax] <ok>
 
Will be the only bet of the week at Galway (not a fan of the quality of racing there- apparantly the festival atmosphere is excellent though so no qualms!), but scanning the cards for this week with Goodwoods Group races in mind, I came across a horse that cost me an e/w accumulator at Chester this time last year.

After missing the start awfully and forfeitting the best part of 8 lengths (at Chester of all places), the horse in mind finished a screaming home 5th and missed 3rd by a head and a nose. He went on to be rated 80 on the flat (won well off 74) before switching to Charlie Swan in Ireland.

A brief look at the formbook tells me he has had some very ordinary rides when midfield in half decent maiden hurdles, and as such is on a mark of just 98 over hurdles. If he shows anything like his flat ability, he will make a mockery of that.

His name is ERIC THE GREY 33/1 at 5.40 Galway. Each-way.
 
stick said:
I really fancy QUICK JACK to win the Galway Hurdle this week so I am a little miffed to see him running on day one of the meeting. My initial thought is that they know how well handicapped he is and will be going to the well twice this week. I am confident that he is going to win tomorrow and current best odds are 9-2 but at the same time and think the 10-1 for him to follow up in the Hurdle should be taken too as when he bolts up tomorrow that price will be slashed. He is a hurdler on a real upward curve and looks one to follow.
QUICK JACK 9-2 6:45 Galway
ante post
QUICK JACK 10-1 Galway Hurdle Thursday
While you are at it you might even want to take 20-1 on him for the Ebor............
Another hurdler on an upward curve is CYGNET 9-2 Uttoxeter 7:55 although his more of a renaissance. He is ten pounds well in at the moment and I am confident that he will win tomorrow evening!
Click to expand...

Quick Jack is by no means guaranteed a run in the Hurdle Stick,be surprised if he makes the cut...38 at present.

Connections perhaps think they may as well go for a decent pot tomorrow and then keep their fingers crossed.
 
To me he doesn't look a certainty for this race, let alone the big one. If he doesn't win this then, presumably he might not get in and if he does he might not be good enough. If he is pounds better than he's shown (and there are others in tomorrow's race that are also probably pounds better than they have shown) sufficient to win, then it seems like a very well thought out plan to win tomorrow to increase his chances in the big one. Reading between the lines it would seem that they really fancy him for the big one and tomorrow is an insurance policy to get some money just in case he doesn't get in but also to try to make sure he does. Hopefully it doesn't go tits up tomorrow.
 
Doh yeah its not going to help his mark one jot!

If they leave him in and he gets balloted out you do get ante post money back Dex. What you wouldn't want to happen is for them not to declare him!
 
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