In the big sprint at Ascot I am going for a rank outsider each-way. SPY CHIEF has only won once in modest company but has run well on occasions in decent company. His win was an upset because he turned over 4/9 favourite Almeraq from the Haggas stable. There was little fluke about it as he beat that useful sort by more than five lengths. Almeraq went on to win at Ayr and then fell next time when fancied. Spy Chief himself ran placed in the Jersey Stakes over 7F at Royal Ascot and although a bit disappointing a couple of times it is hoped that he is better at 6F than the 7F he has tackled the last twice. Not disgraced in the July Cup when 7th he was not beaten far by Big Mojo, who was 4th that day and later went on to win the Betfred Sprint Cup at Haydock. Sexier and more familiar names for sure in the Ascot race on Saturday but Spy Chief is 66/1 in places. Sky Bet and Paddy Power go five places each-way. Champion Sprint Ascot SPY CHIEF EW 66/1 five places Big Boo-Hiss to 888 for being 3 places only each way and only 33/1. Get real ffs people can shop around for better value than those miserly terms.
In the Balmoral Handicap I felt Cerulean Bay had a squeak. He has found his form of late and is only 1lb higher than when winning at Goodwood on Sunday. The stable have a pretty good record in the race and the horse has pulled off a hat trick in the past. His record at a mile is pretty strong for a Handicapper and 16/1 EW six places is appealing to me. Balmoral Handicap CERULEAN BAY 16/1 EW six places.
Just a quote from Gosden junior regarding Spy Chief:- Thady Gosden, joint-trainer of Spy Chief. He ran a great race to be second in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot, so we know he likes the track, and dropping back to a stiff six should help him. Sixth place will do for me at double carpet twice.
Spy Chief was fairly prominent early doors but weakened badly. Cerulean Bay was well positioned to strike but when the jockey asked him it was as if he had applied the brakes and he weakened rapidly. Quite a puzzling effort. Rank outsiders on the day but I didn't pick them quite rank enough. My picks were rank in their own way though despite starting well shorter than the odds I took. I feared the worst when Jason Weaver said "Here's one at a price..... Spy Chief is huge at 33/1" I was calling the Samaratins seconds later.
The Futurity at Doncaster has attracted only half a dozen runners. Benvenuto Cellini is favourite at 5/4 for Aidan O'brien with Hawk Mountain 5/2 for the same connections. Hawk Mountain was 8/1 a few days ago and that looked big given the relative form with the Fav. Benvenuto Cellini has the most potential but may not get there this year, however Soumillon is on him and that suggests he is top dog going into the race, although Hawk Mountain will not be making up the numbers. Item has been well touted in the media but won at Bath and is taking a huge leap forward. The race at Bath fitted the time spacing and need not be down graded on Class of venue but for me Item would have been better served nudging his way to Group 1 company next spring. 17/2 for Item looks miserly and I could see him drifting. I feel Oxagon is the value at 9/1. A bit disappointing in the Dewhurst when fifth, he had previously finished ahead of winner Gewan when runner up to Lagardere winner Puerto Rico at Donny in the Champagne. Oxagon finished strongly that day and looked like he needed a mile. Faster ground in the Dewhurst didn't suit him and I feel his form is right up there. He is 19 lbs higher than Item and I see no reason he should be bigger than the Balding horse. In any given season you would normally think a Dewhurst horse would be that bit better quality than the average Futurity contender. Oxagon is narrowly best on Racing Post and Official figures and while there are others who may have more scope I thought Oxagon could improve further for stepping up to a mile and if he were coming here straight from the Champagne Stakes to tackle these over 7F I feel he would probably be Fav. 2.05 Doncaster Saturday OXAGON 9/1
